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Moderated Dowsing By Edge

It's so simple, when I know that the target is there , and when they go to change cans they have to wait a few minutes till we start up again......

That's when I get my rest..................................................................................................................................................................................
 
Kenny 10 Bellys said:
I'm actually beginning to think he may show up for a test, although admittedly I'm not confident enough to put a time frame on that particular inkling.

My only concern is that he'll come out with some mental breakdown. While we have all recorded science and common sense on our side, Mike has his anecdotal record of occasionally finding trace quantities of gold dust in gold bearing regions. If that's enough to convince him his stick can pick up the indescribably small dent in space-time made by a smidgen of gold then who knows how another failed test will effect his thinking? Perhaps it should be in the protocol that he's searched for firearms beforehand?
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Come now, you skeptic you, how could you possibly doubt edge's ability to find excuses? If all else fails, there is the nuclear weapon of excuses, "I lied so I could take the test".

If he actually does take another test, though, he will earn a measure of respect just for following through.
 
edge wrote
I want the Pulitzer that’s way more money.
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A Pulitzer brings a $10,000 award, edge. That's way less money--$990,000 less.

I assume lead is out as a counterweight. I recommend EHocking's procedure be followed. It is important that the cannisters weigh the same, or as close to the same as possible. Edge, it's not needlessly complicated to insure that the test is as controlled as possible. You want to prove that dowsing works; if there is sensory leakage, the possibility of collusion, or any other flaw in the procedure, that will invalidate the test and make the conclusion ambiguous at best. You should welcome controls that rule out everything but dowsing. That's the only way you will convince the world that dowsing works.
 
edge said:
That is a red flag if I ever saw one.

Sand
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Dowse a "tin" with sand in it on the test site to set the benchmark, then.

The ENTIRE AREA will be surrounded by sand/dirt/rock/pebble/grass/earthworm combination. This is getting lame, edge.
 
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This is just edge's way out when he fails the test again. He can point to something that wasn't just right and blame the failure on that. Out on the field where there is no control and no testing his powers are great, yea sure.

Paul

:) :) :)
 
Paulhoff said:
This is just edge's way out when he fails the test again. He can point to something that wasn't just right and blame the failure on that. Out on the field where there is no control and no testing his powers are great, yea sure.

Paul

:) :) :)
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Ayup - and any attempts to control for the variables triggers ad homs of anal retentiveness.

The whole process would be better served if a detailed protocol was written up and THEN fine tuned to suit both parties.
At the moment it's just going round and round in circles, with clauses being invented from whole cloth whenever edge invents a new theory...
 
EHocking said:
Ayup - and any attempts to control for the variables triggers ad homs of anal retentiveness.

The whole process would be better served if a detailed protocol was written up and THEN fine tuned to suit both parties.
At the moment it's just going round and round in circles, with clauses being invented from whole cloth whenever edge invents a new theory...
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Couldn't agree more on the circles. I'd even say edge leads everyone in circles - including himself.

He obviously has no idea how to devise a protocol suited to his claim and this puts his numbers from way earlier in this thread in perspective. It also complicates things because the protocol has to be tailor-made to his claim.

However strenuous, this whole process peels the onion of paranormality. Let's see what remains when it's finished.
 
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GzuzKryzt said:
Couldn't agree more on the circles. I'd even say edge leads everyone in circles - including himself.

He obviously has no idea how to devise a protocol suited to his claim and this puts his numbers from way earlier in this thread in perspective. It also complicates things because the protocol has to be tailor-made to his claim.
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Yeah. So you'd think that if he was serious about winning $1 million, he'd accept any offer to have a stab at being tested, wouldn't you;) ?
However strenuous, this whole process peels the onion of paranormality. Let's see what remains when it's finished.
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Only tears, I'd hazard...
 
EHocking said:
At the start, 1 canister has the target. 9 are dummies. All are prepared and sealed in front of all participants and taped closed. The canisters are randomly numbered - but no one now nows which contains the target.

During the test the canisters are then randomly chosen to be placed on the test area (or at 10 different locations).

The randomising team records the number (1-10) of the canister and the order/location (a-j) it is taken to the test site.

The testee team records which in the order/location (a-j) that edge says the target is under.

So. One team knows the order in which the targets were placed in the test area and the other team knows the order/location that edge chose as the target in each trial. But no one knows if he's been successful or not.

At the end, you just open the canisters, 1-10, and find out which number canister the target was in. Let's say it was no.4.

Using the randomising team's record you can then say what position/order the canister was placed for each trial, e.g.,

Trial number / target position
1 e
2 j
3 b
4 c
etc

Using the testee's record you can indicate edge's dowsed choices

Trial number / target position
1 c
2 e
3 b
4 d
etc

In this case he got a hit only on trial 3.
My way's blinder:D

Nope - just me being pedantic.
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This protocol reduces the chances of succeeding to 1 in 10. All Edge has to do is guess the same numbered container each time.

IXP
 
Even if the numbers are not visible, my previous post still applies. All Edge has to do is note some distiguishing mark on one of the containers and pick it each time. The target must be moved to a random container each time.

IXP
 
IXP said:
This protocol reduces the chances of succeeding to 1 in 10. All Edge has to do is guess the same numbered container each time.

IXP
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Hmmm. No.
He has a 1 in 10 chance for each trial, i.e., 1 target hidden in 10 canisters.

There are 10 trials per test.

He has to get 7 correct out of the 10 trials to beat random chance at odds of 1:10,000.

See this web page for an explanation.
 
EHocking said:
Hmmm. No.
He has a 1 in 10 chance for each trial, i.e., 1 target hidden in 10 canisters.

There are 10 trials per test.

He has to get 7 correct out of the 10 trials to beat random chance at odds of 1:10,000.

See this web page for an explanation.
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If I understand your protocol correctly, the target is in the same numbered container for each of the ten tests. If I am Edge, I do my best at dowsing for the first test and decide on one container. On each test thereafter I simply pick the same container, no matter what order they come in. There are only 10 possible outcomes, and in one of them I get all 10 correct.

IXP
 
IXP said:
Even if the numbers are not visible, my previous post still applies. All Edge has to do is note some distiguishing mark on one of the containers and pick it each time. The target must be moved to a random container each time.

IXP
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That was covered at least 2 weeks ago. The external coffee "tins" will not be marked. The canisters inside will be numbered. Each trial a new randomising will take place.

Or use the same container each time if he persists on his one-at-a-time protocol.
 
Okay, now I understand. I did not know there was a container in a container. See what happens if you leave part of the protocol out!

IXP
 
IXP said:
If I understand your protocol correctly, the target is in the same numbered container for each of the ten tests. If I am Edge, I do my best at dowsing for the first test and decide on one container. On each test thereafter I simply pick the same container, no matter what order they come in. There are only 10 possible outcomes, and in one of them I get all 10 correct.
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Uh, then you don't understand any of the protocols being proposed. I suggest you read back a few pages - or search on protocol on this thread.
 
EHocking said:
At the start, 1 canister has the target. 9 are dummies. All are prepared and sealed in front of all participants and taped closed. The canisters are randomly numbered - but no one now nows which contains the target.

During the test the canisters are then randomly chosen to be placed on the test area (or at 10 different locations).
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This actually wouldn't work... Because there are ten cannisters and they are given out in sets of ten, the target metal has to jump cannisters. It can't just be in a different order because the ten cannisters are all going to be slightly different - not due to any cheating or anything of that nature, just because there's no identical two of anything, let alone ten.

The target will have to be physically taken out and switched to another cannister for each set because... alright, let's say that on the first run of ten, Guska was able to figure out, by pure chance or dowsing, which cannister contained the target. He would be able to find it in every subsequent set because of the appearance of the cannister rather than the dowsing, if he chose.

That increases his odds to one in ten (the odds of guessing right on that first set).

The people who place the cannisters will know exactly where the target metal is in every set, they just won't be observing the dowsing.
 
RemieV said:
This actually wouldn't work... Because there are ten cannisters and they are given out in sets of ten, the target metal has to jump cannisters. It can't just be in a different order because the ten cannisters are all going to be slightly different - not due to any cheating or anything of that nature, just because there's no identical two of anything, let alone ten.

The target will have to be physically taken out and switched to another cannister for each set because... alright, let's say that on the first run of ten, Guska was able to figure out, by pure chance or dowsing, which cannister contained the target. He would be able to find it in every subsequent set because of the appearance of the cannister rather than the dowsing, if he chose.

That increases his odds to one in ten (the odds of guessing right on that first set).

The people who place the cannisters will know exactly where the target metal is in every set, they just won't be observing the dowsing.
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Agreed.

What about the time issue, i.e. the total duration of the test? How long is JREF prepared to let it go?
 
edge said:
It's so simple, when I know that the target is there , and when they go to change cans they have to wait a few minutes till we start up again......

That's when I get my rest..................................................................................................................................................................................
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I'm confused on this point.

Are you suggesting that after dowsing a cannister that you believe contains the target metal, you will continue to stand in place and dowse the spot after the cannister is removed?

That would not be possible. You cannot see the placement or removal of the cannisters. You would have to walk away while it was removed and return after it was gone.
 
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