No. You need you to say it. Along with the rest of the protocol. That you then send to the JREF. The ball is in your court Edge, and has been for the last year.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
I touch on this in my write-up. The real edge is, IMO, somewhat accurately reflected in his writing. He rambles a lot and even in person does not give clear, concise responses to direct questions. That said, I also think he is a bit of an old backwoods miner type. He should have lived in the 1800s.
Links to SezMe's write up can be found here.
But I thought he wanted only one box kept in the exact same, perfect place – not ten actual boxes.
And shouldn’t the number of times the target is used be randomly selected? If he wants a ‘hit’ even when he says the target isn’t there, and he knows the target isn’t there 90% of the time...well...
Or I’m I misinterpreting something?
How about this:
1. Edge finds his perfect spot.
2. Only one container will be used and it stays on the perfect spot.
3. 10 playing cards, numbered 1 to 10, are shuffled.
4. 1 card is drawn and that is how many times the target will appear in the first 10 run trial.
5. Reshuffle all the cards.
6. Draw a number of cards equal the number on the card drawn in step 4. These are the runs when the target will be placed in the container.
7. Edge enters the area and starts the first run. He says if there is or isn’t a target in the container and gets a ‘hit’ each time he is correct.
8. Repeat for 9 more trials.
9. 70% correct is needed for a successful (preliminary round) outcome.
If it’s done outside in a quarry, I guess a tent or curtain may be needed for Edge to go to after each run.
Does that sound about right?
1. Edge finds his perfect spot.
2. Only one container will be used and it stays on the perfect spot.
3. 10 playing cards, numbered 1 to 10, are shuffled.
4. 1 card is drawn and that is how many times the target will appear in the first 10 run trial.
5. Reshuffle all the cards.
6. Draw a number of cards equal the number on the card drawn in step 4. These are the runs when the target will be placed in the container.
7. Edge enters the area and starts the first run. He says if there is or isn’t a target in the container and gets a ‘hit’ each time he is correct.
8. Repeat for 9 more trials.
9. 70% correct is needed for a successful (preliminary round) outcome.
If it’s done outside in a quarry, I guess a tent or curtain may be needed for Edge to go to after each run.
Does that sound about right?
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Fixed - a simple capitalisation of edge screwed it.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
The problem with this is that at step 4 you are changing the odds of each trial. Thus the conclusion in 9 is going to be incorrect (and no, I cannot work out the odds).
1. Edge finds his perfect spot.
2. Only one container will be used and it stays on the perfect spot.
3. 10 playing cards, numbered Ace to 10, are shuffled.
4. A card is drawn one at a time. If the card drawn is an Ace, the target is placed in the box. If not, a dummy target is placed in the box.
5. After each card is drawn and tartget/dummy placed in the box, edge enters the area and says if there is or isn’t a target in the container and gets a ‘hit’ each time he is correct.
8. Repeat for the rest of the 10 cards.
This constitutes one trial with 1/10 chances of the target being in the box.
9. 5 such trials would require 5 successful guesses from 5 trials to meet the 1:10,000 odds of the Preliminary test.
10. 10 such trials would require 7 successful guesses which meets both the Preliminary test requirements AND edge's boast of a 70% success rate.
Dumb All Over
A Little Ugly on the Side
It still doesn't seem to work.
ETA- Now it works (the pdf, not the dowsing). My bad. Reading now...
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Dumb All Over
A Little Ugly on the Side
90% accurate. I'm speechless.
Blue Bubble
Sharper than a thorn
When I try to access EHocking's PDF file, I get:
I can hardly wait, given Dumb All Over's "90% accurate. I'm speechless" quote.
I can hardly wait, given Dumb All Over's "90% accurate. I'm speechless" quote.
Dumb All Over
A Little Ugly on the Side
Not many people will be able to download the pdf today as the site has limited "allocated data transfer".
SezMe conducted ten trials. Mike Guska correctly identified the target during nine of the ten trials. I'd say that's well beyond chance.
SezMe conducted ten trials. Mike Guska correctly identified the target during nine of the ten trials. I'd say that's well beyond chance.
IXP
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2004
- Messages
- 1,395
As I understand it:
Edge's protocol consists of 10 trials.
Each trial consists of dowsing 10 boxes (or one box 10 times) and the target is in one and only one of these 10.
For each trial (of 10 boxes) Edge will identify which of the 10 has the target.
So Edge's output is the number 1 thourgh 10 for each trial. If the target was in that box with that sequence number, then Edge has a hit. Probability of getting any trial right by chance is 0.1
7 or more out of 10 right is a win.
IXP
Edge's protocol consists of 10 trials.
Each trial consists of dowsing 10 boxes (or one box 10 times) and the target is in one and only one of these 10.
For each trial (of 10 boxes) Edge will identify which of the 10 has the target.
So Edge's output is the number 1 thourgh 10 for each trial. If the target was in that box with that sequence number, then Edge has a hit. Probability of getting any trial right by chance is 0.1
7 or more out of 10 right is a win.
IXP
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Oualawouzou
Critical Thinker
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2007
- Messages
- 490
I am even more speechless that he can do a test on the fly at a few hours notice and get 90% right, and yet still cannot free himself up a single day to run a double-blind test designed by people used to come up with foolproof experiments.
SezMe, quick question: where was the other target while Edge was dowsing? I didn't see it mentionned in your write-up. It wasn't clear either what was the position of Mike's assistant relative to the box and everything else.
Dowsing works!
In addition, did you see the dime or was it completely covered with tape?
Thanks SezMe, It gives me more information.
That spot was the best-case scenario.
The place where we tested here is the worst case, here the test proved 58%.
There's a difference in the ground, “more neutral", and that does make a difference all verifiable through the scale. We did it in three spots so far and the percentage increased in each. 40% 58% 90% I wish we could have done more in the 90% spot, that will happen later.
What I have to do now is get a smaller target and go to gold as the target.
I have two nuggets which add up to an once and a half pull on the scale it must bottom out at four, that means I need about a quarter once of gold.
I need about 4 more pennyweights of gold or more for a more compact test.
They will only do a test on hits on a target out of ten X ten tries.
That spot was the best-case scenario.
The place where we tested here is the worst case, here the test proved 58%.
There's a difference in the ground, “more neutral", and that does make a difference all verifiable through the scale. We did it in three spots so far and the percentage increased in each. 40% 58% 90% I wish we could have done more in the 90% spot, that will happen later.
What I have to do now is get a smaller target and go to gold as the target.
I have two nuggets which add up to an once and a half pull on the scale it must bottom out at four, that means I need about a quarter once of gold.
I need about 4 more pennyweights of gold or more for a more compact test.
They will only do a test on hits on a target out of ten X ten tries.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Originally Posted by Dumb All Over
Not many people will be able to download the pdf today as the site has limited "allocated data transfer".
SezMe conducted ten trials. Mike Guska correctly identified the target during nine of the ten trials. I'd say that's well beyond chance.
Dowsing works!
It didn't in this case beyond random chance, which is what you need to beat to succeed in the Challenge.
In fact, when the target WAS there - you only scored 2/3 - 67% - BELOW your boasted success rate.
Stop getting all excited everyone, this demonstration was no more exciting that choosing heads or tails from 10 coin flips.
Exactly the same odds.
As hard as it may seem - this is WITHIN CHANCE of 1:100 so not even NEAR the Preliminary requirements.
Check out these tabes (AGAIN!) and you will see that a guess that has a 50/50 chance of being right, would need a score of 10 out of 10 to be beyond random chance at odds of 1:100.
For the Preliminary using the demonstration's mode of selection, he'd have to get 15 right from 15 to beat odds of 1:10,000
And for the final - he'd have to get better than 28 from 30, and this is where it gets complicated. A score of less than 3 correct is ALSO outside random chance.
This is why you should stick to 1 target in 10 - and only look for the presence of the target.
I very much doubt JREF would agree to a test that only had a 50:50 chance of being right in it.