Bear in mind I'm not an American. I live in a very small peaceful country far removed from the rest of the world.
I haven't seen that documentary, however I get the general gist of it.
I disagree with its premise. I believe Radical Islam is very real, and a serious threat to western civilisation. I believe in the next century there will be a major civilisation-ending conflict between the west and either Islam or China (dependant on whether Radical Islam continues to spread or whether China is westernised before it reaches Super Power status).
History tells us that civilisations are only crushed from without after they have collapsed from within. It can take centuries. They don't fail overnight.
I believe Western Civilisation in in grave danger of such an internal collapse, and I think the danger is far greater than we realise or would like to consider.
Our actions or inactions now will have a significant influence on whether we survive any upcoming clash of civilisations or not.
I also believe it is normal for citizens of a powerful civilisation to think that their civilisation cannot possibly fail, tending to rubbish anyone that might suggest it as either being silly or a fear-mongerer.
I disagree. If history is to be believed (and I can't see how the last few centuries have made us any different than the humans of the 10,000 years previous) all civilisations ultimately face ruin.
Having said that, Radical Islam is certainly useful to people with their own agenda such as the current US Administration. I once tohught maybe they too saw the threat, but their actions in Afghanistan and Iraq made me reassess this. I believe they are exploiting fear of Radical Islam for their own goals, however I don't think they realise the actual threat that Radical Islam potentially poses.
In contrast, everything I have seen of Tony Blair indicates to me he is aware of the threat.
After the 7/7 Bombings he said something that I think is considerably profound. I cannot quote precisely, but the gist was "9/11 woke the world up. The problem is, we all just went back to sleep."
-Gumboot
Radical Islam will eventually fade away, and it will do so even faster if we are wise enough not to "throw fuel on the fire".
Hintington dark visions about "clash of civilization" were initially a theory, theory that we have done everything to transform it into a reality.
Radical Islam was at the beginning a small force, driving Islam's tortuous way to modernity. These countries are poor and weak. they can kill some innocent citizens, but provided we prevent them from using WMDs, there is no major threat for the West. 3000 people in NY is nothing compared to the Soviet threat (sic).
We try so hard to invent, create and nurture a new threat to justify military budgets.
Here is my view of what's happening in Islam: it is based on what serious Islam specialists will tell you:
Now, you say that the US had become complacent about its security. But didn't Clarke try to warn Rice, Cheney, and Bush? Why wouldn't they listen? In my view, the US are complacent because they let the roots of terrorism grow bigger and deeper:
- by supporting dictatorships: Egypt, Saudi Arabai, Jordan. These contries produced the terrorists. Why? Read the story of Sayed Al-Qutb, of Zawahiri. These mad men became what they are because they hate their governments, supported by the US. What happened in Iran in the last 70s will happen in these countries where radical political Islam is spreading. The same causes that led to the revolution in iran in 79 will produce the same effects in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, not to mention Pakistan.
- by ignoring that force alone cannot defeat radical islam. For its roots are misery, ignorance. The US (but also Europe) trade policies contribute to prevent poor countries from developing. As a matter of consequence, mark my words, terrorism will spread in Muslim Africa. Recent US action in Somalia is just the seed of future terrorism.
- last but not least, by ignoring that the Is-Pal conflict is the deep cancer that kills any progress in the Muslim world.
The US is of course not the only cause of terrorism. Actually, they are only seconday. It is a Hegelian rule of History that people, when they progress toward modernity, go through a deep crisis. As fertility rates go down, and litteracy rates go up, there is always in every country a deep crisis. This is due to the fact that people whowere earlier poor farmers, whose world was limited to their neighbour's fiel, is now opened for a new and dangerous thing: ideologies. The list is long:
- Europe: nationalism and eventually fascism
- US: civil war
- Russia: communism
- China: communism
- Japan: militarism
etc... If you check the figures (fertility, literacy) these crisis roughly happened at the same time: transition toward modenity.
So, that is precisely what the the majority of the muslim world is going throught right now. And, ironclly, the muslim transition so far proves a lot less violent, in terms of casualties, than let's say WWII!
What's my point?
Well my point is: we, developped and civilized nations, must understand that they are going through their crisis. It might take a few decades, but eventually it will be a lot smoother. Take Iran: paradoxically, even though Ahmadinejad is a mad bastard, the Iranians are almost through. (2,1 children per women, 95% literacy rate). On the other hand, you have Pakistan: our next bomb. When Musharaf blows up, we gonna have a lot of trouble (Pak has the nuke!)
So, what should we do? Well, simple thing: Do not throw fuel on the fire!!
But that's what the US are doing right now. It is understandable that they were pissed off about 9/11, and they attacked AF. Fine! But Iraq, for christ sake!!?!! What better way to throw fuel on the fire!
I will stop here, but I'm so sad that the US, this great nation, land of freedom and opportunity, sells its soul in a stupid and unwinnable "war".
And 9/11 was the beginning of this. When this is all over, we'll the immense waste that all was.
CONCLUSION: if we are wise enough, then we will understand that the greatest issues we have to face are: peaceful rise of a multipolar world and global warming.
Focusing so hard on radical islam, which is a threat, but truly a minor one compared to Communism in the Past and global warming today, is just a way of hiding realities.
And until the US, and more generally the West doesn't understand, we will face constant failures and disillusions, just like since 9/11.