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Common Sense

Magic 8 Ball said:
From Wikipedia: "Once the host has opened a door, the car must be behind one of the two remaining doors."
Wouldn't this statement mean that the first pick is irrelevant.
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The first pick is quite relevant.
If your first pick is the car, Monty can eliminate either the first goat or the second goat. (If you switch, you lose. If you stay, you win.)
If your first pick is the first goat, Monty MUST eliminate the second goat. (If you switch, you win. If you stay, you lose.)
If your first pick is the second goat, Monty MUST eliminate the first goat. (If you switch, you win. If you stay, you lose.)

So if you switch, you have a 2/3 chance of winning, and if you stay, you have a 2/3 chance of losing.

Think of a roulette wheel with an electornic sign displaying the last 20 numbers that popped up. Those last numbers are still irrelvant in determinbing the next number the ball lands on. However, I do see your point mathematically. Monty has eliminated a wrong answer, thus increasing your odds if you make a switch. The assumption is that you will pick the wrong door the first time since it is one in three. I'll try your suggested experiment. Thanks.
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bonavada said:
spielberg i'm not but i thought i'd have a go ;-]

ETA i took the animated gif off here. i think it was slowing down the page loading don't want to incur the wrath of the mightymod




BV
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Brilliant! I love how God had to nudge it twice, cause he couldn't get it right the first time.
 
I do the monty hall problem as a card trick with a king and 2 3's, just to prove it to people.

It defies common sense because people are trying to pick the car / king. Once they are shown the goat / 3 that they did not choose, it reinforces their belief that they might have picked the prize.

Once the problem is explained / demonstrated to people, and they understand that 1) they have a better chance of picking the goat / 3, and 2) that if they pick the goat / 3 and they switch, they will win, they see that they only have a 33% chance of losing by picking the king / car first. They tend to want to switch, then.
 
28th Kingdom said:
...There is absolutely no proof that the towers could have fell the way they did from the damage that was done. The speed at which the buildings fell defies the laws of physics... and that is a fact. It really is that simple.

Common sense tells us... given the knowledge of free falls speeds... that these towers could not have collapsed as fast as they did without a synthetic catalyst like explosives.

Otherwise... you're saying that this marvel in structure engineering and design, provided virtually no resistance to the falling upper mass. You're basically saying this steel structured building provided no more resistance than if it were made of cardboard...
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It is so painful to read this stuff. Like a daily peek at a "Garfield" comic strip.
 
28th Kingdom said:
We Truthers... actually adhere to scientific laws, probability, common logic and reason... to piece everything together in a very clear and detailed image of what actually happened on 9/11. We certainly don't throw our hands up in the air and go... 8474 happens man. Planes hit buildings... and now we have three magical collapses... and new laws of physics to document...
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Gravy? Is this you putting one over on us?
 
28th Kingdom said:
That is a lie.. there are hundreds if not thousands of video taped first hand accounts from witnesses who claim they heard all kinds of explosives going off:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnbpz9udYus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVYAPhhMKqw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApOt3jdn28A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT95sx-8jOQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR8RgEHw6p4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-uOFXsfskM
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Odd that all of that audio recording equipment in the area that day, no one picked up anything that sounded like this actual CD. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-WvQbFMIWU

Why do you think that is?
 
28th Kingdom said:
The events of 9/11 include more than the collapses... it's the motive, the opportunity, the admitted evidence we have from the Bush administration about facts surrounding 9/11... the documented history of Israel framing Arab Muslims as terrorists... that is the big picture of 9/11. The fact that explosives were used is the big picture... the exact details of how they were used is not.

Of course, your left-brain hates the big picture... you prefer the myopic metaphysical world of speculative details... where you hold complete dominion over all the facts.
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I love it when Garfield eats a whole plate of lasagna! Now that's comedy genius. A cat...eating lasagna! Oh, my sides, my sides!
 
Tirdun said:
So every firefighter in NYC was in on the conspiracy and willing to blab about it to a CNN reporter moments before their nefarious scheme was launched? What tight, unrivaled security your NWO has in place.

You want me to defend a cautionary expression made by a firefighter in the street who has just been ordered to clear the area because a 47 story building with massive structural damage is clearly going to fall over and possibly hurt/kill even more people? On a day when thousands are already dead and dozens of his fellow firefighters have already DIED? Why should he, as a member of this dark conspiracy with the blood of ~3000 people on his hands give a rats tail about whoever is left in or around WTC7? Why would he even be in on the conspiracy in the first place?

There is no scenario in which his actions and motives make sense within your conspiracy.
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No... you need to defend all three of the rescue workers who said the building was going to blow up... and the other one who proclaimed that the building was about to come down. Now you tell me... how do you predict when a building is gonna come down without knowing it is being blown up? And, then defend these two firefighters who say, "There's a bomb in the building - start clearing out" and "We got a secondary device in the building"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvMABQHSS40

Also... these rescue workers were not apart of the 9/11 plot and did not cover it up. Read my other posts where I explain this...
 
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28th Kingdom said:
how do you predict when a building is gonna come down without knowing it is being blown up?
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WTC7 was leaning over for crying out loud! Of course they knew it would collapse soon.

And it's not like they said "It'll come down in 5, 4, 3...."
 
28th

Track down that firefighter and ask how he knew "there was a bomb."

Then explain to me why the "bomb" was so quiet.
 
28th Kingdom said:
No... you need to defend all three of the rescue workers who said the building was going to blow up... and the other one who proclaimed that the building was about to come down. Now you tell me... how do you predict when a building is gonna come down without knowing it is being blown up? And, then defend these two firefighters who say, "There's a bomb in the building - start clearing out" and "We got a secondary device in the building"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvMABQHSS40

Also... these rescue workers were not apart of the 9/11 plot and did not cover it up. Read my other posts where I explain this...
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so they werent part of the plot...but they knew there were bombs in the building, and they arent covering up...but they dont talk about the bombs in the building

what was that word again? doublethink?
 
defaultdotxbe said:
so they werent part of the plot...but they knew there were bombs in the building, and they arent covering up...but they dont talk about the bombs in the building

what was that word again? doublethink?
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Hey you 3837383 38383746... you think on 9/11 - with the knowledge of terrorists attacks... that these rescue workers.. when told there were bombs in the building... should have been like - damn INSIDE JOB!

These workers probably never even thought twice about those events... they were told to evacuate the area... and they simply did their jobs - like heros... not terrorists.

P.S. People in the truth movement can't even get any mainstream media to show the video of WTC 7 collapsing (minus one time) ... but you think they would have a firefighter on who claims he was told bombs were in WTC 7 building? The media wouldn't... for one - because they only have these "CTist" on, to teach the public how they should be viewed (character assassination) i.e. crazies on the fringe of society - you really think they would want to paint one of the 9/11 heros like that? No, they wouldn't... thus they would never have one on that claimed the official story is a lie.
 
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Didn't you just say that the firefighter said there was a bomb... and now you're saying that he didn't know there was one?

You can't have your cake and eat it, mate.

28th Kingdom said:
And, then defend these two firefighters who say, "There's a bomb in the building - start clearing out" and "We got a secondary device in the building"
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28th Kingdom said:
These workers probably never even thought twice about those events... they were told to evacuate the area...
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28th Kingdom said:
Hey you 3837383 38383746... you think on 9/11 - with the knowledge of terrorists attacks... that these rescue workers.. when told there were bombs in the building... should have been like - damn INSIDE JOB!

These workers probably never even thought twice about those events... they were told to evacuate the area... and they simply did their jobs - like heros... not terrorists.
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Can someone please explain the numbers that this idiot keeps putting in his posts? I know it's substituting for profanity, but I don't get it, other than that.

Please excuse my fogey-ism!
 
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