Merged 2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Solitaire]

Billionaires can make tons of money in fluctuating markets, and it's easier to control Politicians who are constantly scared about everything, especially their own future.

This has to be the Peekaboo Island Effect.

Like Michael Blurry, he made millions on mortgage back security options and then the normal growth of the market made him a billionaire in theory. It's extremely difficult to make money in fluctuating markets because you need to accurately predict the fluctuations, efficient market hypothesis and all that. Actually, I need to spend some time and explore the Greenspan question of "What is money?"

I don't think politicians are scared about everything. Otherwise why run for office?
Your better off living in a cabin far out in the woods, away from everything and everyone.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I think you don't understand the psychology: they crave the sense of control power gives. And thus they fear not having enough

 

[The Great Zaganza]

and it's very easy to make money in fluctuations if you have access to insider knowledge and/or can play the long game.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

One problem with the 25th amendment is that both the VP and a majority of "principle" cabinet members must agree with the removal.

The 25th amendment says "a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide".

I assume you wrote "principle" with quotes to emphasize the incorrectness of that misspelling, but I'm missing the context. Where did you see someone misquoting the 25th amendment with that misspelling?

 

[Segnosaur]

One problem with the 25th amendment is that both the VP and a majority of "principle" cabinet members must agree with the removal.

The 25th amendment says "a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide".

I assume you wrote "principle" with quotes to emphasize the incorrectness of that misspelling, but I'm missing the context. Where did you see someone misquoting the 25th amendment with that misspelling?

My use of "principle" was a typo on my part (autocorrect posting on my phone).

The reason why I put it in quotes was not because of the misspelling/typo (because I did not recognize it at the time), but because I was not sure what cabinet members would actually play a role in invoking the 25th amendment and which ones would be seen as irrelevant. But, I didn't want to get bogged down in that type of detail (which I thought wouldn't really matter ultimately).

 

[Regnad Kcin]

In my opinion, the biggest "win" that the democrats would have is taking control of the senate. This would be huge, as it would block trump from putting any more pro-fascist judges on the Supreme court, or in lower courts/cabinet positions/etc. Tgat is something that he cannot get around with executive order.

< snip >

I can easily see a scenario where Democrats win the senate, but before they can take over in January, Alito and Thomas resign, Trump nominates replacements, and they're approved and sworn in before Thanksgiving.

 

[Random]

One problem with the 25th amendment is that both the VP and a majority of "principle" cabinet members must agree with the removal. Unfortunately, trump has stocked his cabinet with first class bootlickers who are unlikely to support removal, and vance will probably not want to cross trump since it will probably harm his re-election chances

And yes, behind closed doors open am sure there are a lot of republicans who want trump gone. But they recognize that publicly going against the kult leader will still harm their re-election chances. They will probably just wait and hope trump dies from a cheeseburger induced heart attack before the end of his term

Yeah, the 25th Amendment is not going to save us. It was intentionally written with tougher overall requirements than Impeachment to prevent people from using it as an easy alternative to Impeachment. As long as GOP politicians are not going to vote to remove one way or the other (and why would they at this point?), we are stuck.

 

[dudalb]

It's neck and neck in Maine and Michigan in the senate race.

 

[dudalb]

Some republicand are hoping that the Dallas GOP midterm convention will not all about Trump.
Some People never learn......

 

[dudalb]

I almost think Trump, in a way, wants the GOP to lose , as a way of revenge for them not being loyal enough to him.

 

[dudalb]

Yeah, the 25th Amendment is not going to save us. It was intentionally written with tougher overall requirements than Impeachment to prevent people from using it as an easy alternative to Impeachment. As long as GOP politicians are not going to vote to remove one way or the other (and why would they at this point?), we are stuck.

The 25th was designed to be like the idea of a Regency in a monarchy; A temporary executive goverment if the King was unable to actaully govern or was too young to take the throne. The idea was it was a friendly takeover; the power would return to the king when he recovered or if he came of age to t ake the throne.

 

[Brainster]

Here's an updated grid:

State	Polling	Poly
Texas	D+2.7	R+4
Maine	D+2.5	D+36
Alaska	D+2	D+30
Ohio	D+3.3	D+8
Michigan	D+1.8	D+18
North Carolina	D+7.8	D+84
Iowa	R+0.5	R+22
New Hampshire	D+5.3	D+66

Note: The Democrats need to win 6 of these 8 states to control the Senate. They currently lead in polling in 7 states and in Polymarket they are projected to win the 6 needed. The major change here is that Polymarket currently has Ken Paxton winning in Texas. This is probably because of the news that Trump's Maga, Inc. PAC is sending $10 million to Paxton's campaign.

I added New Hampshire because there have been several recent stories about how the Democrats in the Granite State are concerned, although that may just be a way of getting some extra resources, because the polling and betting markets seem much more confident that Chris Pappas will prevail.

Some additional good news for Democrats: Polymarket is now favoring the Democrats to win the Senate at 53%. The market of course is dynamic and could change by the time you click the link, but this is the first time Polymarket has favored the Democrats in months.

 

[shemp]

Here's an updated grid:

State	Polling	Poly
Texas	D+2.7	R+4
Maine	D+2.5	D+36
Alaska	D+2	D+30
Ohio	D+3.3	D+8
Michigan	D+1.8	D+18
North Carolina	D+7.8	D+84
Iowa	R+0.5	R+22
New Hampshire	D+5.3	D+66

Note: The Democrats need to win 6 of these 8 states to control the Senate. They currently lead in polling in 7 states and in Polymarket they are projected to win the 6 needed. The major change here is that Polymarket currently has Ken Paxton winning in Texas. This is probably because of the news that Trump's Maga, Inc. PAC is sending $10 million to Paxton's campaign.

I added New Hampshire because there have been several recent stories about how the Democrats in the Granite State are concerned, although that may just be a way of getting some extra resources, because the polling and betting markets seem much more confident that Chris Pappas will prevail.

Some additional good news for Democrats: Polymarket is now favoring the Democrats to win the Senate at 53%. The market of course is dynamic and could change by the time you click the link, but this is the first time Polymarket has favored the Democrats in months.

I am always wary of polls but this is good news.

Here in New Hampshire, we're seeing lots of ads funded by several PACs attacking Pappas. I'm not too concerned.

 

[Resume]

Suck it, Orange Man.

The Supreme Court has rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to enforce new mail-in ballot delivery rules that threatened to severely disrupt the looming midterm elections.

In a ruling Monday, the justices left in place a lower-court ruling that blocked the Postal Service from implementing the new requirements in the coming weeks due to the potential that millions of voters could be disenfranchised by not having their ballots delivered.
Most of the high court’s majority did not offer a detailed rationale for their decision, which took place on the court’ emergency docket, saying simply that the Trump administration’s position was unlikely to succeed.


In a concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said in his view that “state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the election.”

But of course . . .

Two members of the court dissented — Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

 

[steenkh]

Two members of the court dissented — Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

I wonder what their reasoning is, and particularly if they are using Grok to lighten their burden.

 

[Brainster]

El-Sayed picks up a surprising endorsement:

If Abdul El-Sayed wins his Michigan Senate race, it will mark one of the biggest breakthroughs for the progressive left since the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt, which makes it quite strange that right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson is lavishing praise on El-Sayed and has declared his Trump-backed opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, “unfit to serve in public office. Carlson hasn’t lost his mind.

I beg to differ on that last point; Tucker's been toys in the attic for awhile. Still this should tend to suppress GOP turnout and may help the Democrats keep a key seat in their quest to take over the Senate.

 

[Trebuchet]

Suck it, Orange Man.

But of course . . .

Interesting that neither of them is a Trump appointee....

 

[ZiprHead]

El-Sayed picks up a surprising endorsement:


I beg to differ on that last point; Tucker's been toys in the attic for awhile. Still this should tend to suppress GOP turnout and may help the Democrats keep a key seat in their quest to take over the Senate.

Sounds like Carlson is losing audience and trying to branch out to the left to remain relevant.

 

[Brainster]

Sounds like Carlson is losing audience and trying to branch out to the left to remain relevant.

He's trying to rally the Trumpians who've jumped ship over the Iran War and specifically the anti-Israel crowd (on the right). Viewed with that lens his endorsement makes sense in terms of building a base. I do wonder though how big the overlap is of the Venn diagram of the anti-Israel and anti-Muslim contingents.

 

[azazal]

Sounds like Carlson is losing audience and trying to branch out to the left to remain relevant.

He's not getting the view like he did when he was attacking Barack HUSSEIN Obama. So he needs a new boogeyman to scare his audience with.