Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

[Andy_Ross]

Long piece on changes to Ukraine recruitment and military contracts.

"In August, the number of service members who returned to duty after absence without official leave (AWOL) exceeded the number of those who left their military units without authorization."

This was reported to Ukrinform by Lieutenant Volodymyr Molodii, spokesperson for the Human Capital Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine...

The spokesperson said that, in order to recruit conscripts and other eligible citizens for military service more effectively, four recruitment centers began operating in August under the West, East, South, and North operational commands. They are subordinate to the Ground Forces and operate within the areas of direct responsibility of the respective commands.

“The centers do more than simply offer positions in military units. They provide comprehensive information and support throughout the entire process of joining the Armed Forces – from selecting a position and preparing documents to undergoing the military medical examination and arriving at the place of service. The goal is to make every step a person takes toward military service fully clear and predictable,” Molodii explained...

“The new contracts guarantee the right to discharge after the contract term has been completed, regardless of whether martial law remains in effect. This is an important step toward a model in which a person understands the basic conditions and prospects of military service even before joining"..

General Staff: More troops return from AWOL in August than leave their units

 

[icerat]

If Ukraine can construct a great Wonder before the russians gather all the Relics, they can still win.

omfg
We fell over laughing so much! (maybe some wine involved too) but that caught us fabulously unawares. Brilliant!!!

 

[Safe-Keeper]

omfg
We fell over laughing so much! (maybe some wine involved too) but that caught us fabulously unawares. Brilliant!!!

So happy to be of help .

 

[Andy_Ross]

Ukraine is facing its "toughest winter" since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, a top United Nations official told the BBC.

Alexander De Croo, head of the UN development agency, said there was a risk of "humanitarian catastrophe" if Russian attacks cut off access to power and water.

Speaking in Ukraine, De Croo – the UN's third most senior official – accused Russia of systematically targeting the country's energy infrastructure. He said there was now a "race against the clock" to repair the power network before winter sets in and temperatures plummet

Ukraine faces 'toughest winter' since Russia's full-scale invasion, UN warns

A senior UN official tells the BBC there is a race against the clock to ensure access to power and water through winter.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Andy_Ross]

Bulgarian authorities are investigating a fire at a munitions factory for links to an explosion at a similar facility in August. Arms maker EMCO says no human error was involved, as investigators look at sabotage.

Police say the blaze broke out Friday night and follows a similar incident at another EMCO site in August.

EMCO's munitions are used in Ukraine and sabotage has not been ruled out, video images of the fire broadcast locally showed it illuminating the night sky near the village of Tsareva Livada.

The full extent of the damage is not yet known but no casualties have been reported.

Bulgaria: Fire at factory making munitions for Ukraine

Bulgarian authorities are investigating a fire at a munitions factory for links to an explosion at a similar facility in August. Arms maker EMCO says no human error was involved, as investigators look at sabotage.

amp.dw.com

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Makes me wonder what we (NATO/the West) are doing in russia. Hopefully we have some saboteurs and whatnot in enemy territory as well.

 

[theprestige]

Makes me wonder what we (NATO/the West) are doing in russia. Hopefully we have some saboteurs and whatnot in enemy territory as well.

Saboteurs have been active in Russia since at least the second year of the war. From what I can tell, they're mostly Russian partisans, but also sometimes Ukrainian spies and commandos as well. Some of the biggest sabotage operations are assumed to have occurred with the help of Ukrainian specialists inside Russia. Operation Spider Web, for example, that swarmed Russian rail logistics with short-range strike drones. It's also thought that some of the long-range cruise missile strikes against shipping in the Caspian Sea were targeted with the help of local observers phoning in ship movements.

I doubt NATO is inserting western European sabotage teams into Russia, though. Ukrainians and Russians are already providing plenty of volunteers for this kind of work. I assume NATO members are providing other kinds of support, in terms of intelligence and equipment.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

America demands russia stop attacking Ukrainian... no, wait :double checks notes:

America has asked Ukraine to stop defending themselves by hitting russian diesel production and storage facilities :/ . The attacks are causing a russian diesel shortage and apparently we can't have that.

Trump tells Zelenskyy to stop ‘knocking out’ Russia’s diesel fuel

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months.

tvpworld.com

 

[theprestige]

America demands russia stop attacking Ukrainian... no, wait :double checks notes:

America has asked Ukraine to stop defending themselves by hitting russian diesel production and storage facilities :/ . The attacks are causing a russian diesel shortage and apparently we can't have that.

Trump tells Zelenskyy to stop ‘knocking out’ Russia’s diesel fuel

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months.

tvpworld.com

As much as I'm in favor of destabilizing Russia, an unstable Russia presents serious problems all its own, far beyond what we're already seeing. Even Joe Biden and Barack Obama were reluctant to take the conflict too hard into Russia.

 

[Mike!]

Here's a kick ass idea, why not tell Russian to stop attacking and get the ◊◊◊◊ out of Ukraine? I'm pretty sure that'd resolve a lot of problems in short order too.

 

[theprestige]

Here's a kick ass idea, why not tell Russian to stop attacking and get the ◊◊◊◊ out of Ukraine? I'm pretty sure that'd resolve a lot of problems in short order too.

Telling Russia to stop attacking won't solve anything. The only reason to do it is because it's the right thing to do.

Everyone on Ukraine's side is trying to figure out a way to liberate the occupied territories without goading Moscow into using nukes. It's a difficult needle to thread, and even Obama and Biden tread cautiously.

 

[lobosrul5]

As much as I'm in favor of destabilizing Russia, an unstable Russia presents serious problems all its own, far beyond what we're already seeing. Even Joe Biden and Barack Obama were reluctant to take the conflict too hard into Russia.

Ukraine may as well give up then. The only way the war will ever end is if the Russian government is toppled (other than full capitulation). Could that mean something worse? Yes, but I guess its a risk your willing to take when your country is being invaded.

Also, I don't think that was Trump's reason for his statement. I believe he thinks diesel shortages in Russia are causing high prices in the USA. This is not true. Unlike crude oil, our refined fuels market is in no way affected by Eurasian prices.

Eta: or I suppose it is. Since the us does export significant refined diesel. We could just put an export ban on it though.

 

[Andy_Ross]

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com%2Fpost%2F3mvfowgmb372s

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Interesting context from ISW: Apparently the russians wish to encircle the fortress belt by attacking from Lyman sector and Pokrovsk. See these ominous red arrows?

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Yeah, apparently so did the Ukrainians. Apparently the loss of their salient in Lyman has thwarted a whole russian pincer operation:

1. Ukrainian forces in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have successfully contested the initiative at both the strategic and operational levels for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk Offensive.
2. Ukrainian successes in eliminating the Russian salient north of Lyman over the past several months have disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast from the Lyman and Dobropillya areas.
3. The Russian military command will likely need to reassess its campaign designs for the southern and northern flanks of the Fortress Belt given the elimination of its salient north of Lyman and particularly if Ukrainian forces are able to fully push Russian forces back to the Zherebets River and use the canalizing terrain to create a stable defensive line.
4. Many Russian milbloggers are acknowledging that Ukrainian forces have largely eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman and that fighting is mainly ongoing along the Zherebets River in the area.

The same update reports the russians don't actually have 'the training and administrative capabilities to absorb, integrate, and train' 800 000 people at once, like generals are calling for. It also says Ukrainian strikes are intense enough to keep the russian oil industry and oil exports from recovering.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2026

Ukrainian forces have successfully contested the initiative starting in late 2025 and persisting throughout 2026.

understandingwar.org

 

[Jack by the hedge]

America demands russia stop attacking Ukrainian... no, wait :double checks notes:

America has asked Ukraine to stop defending themselves by hitting russian diesel production and storage facilities :/ . The attacks are causing a russian diesel shortage and apparently we can't have that.

Trump cares very deeply about anyone disrupting the world's fuel supplies while pursuing their own goals.

That's his job.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com%2Fpost%2F3mvfowgmb372s

Ah. Okay. It's just about the midterms.

In the same way Trump suddenly has an opinion on Irish reunification, purely for midterm votes, Trump is lying to the American voters that it's Ukraine's fault and not his fault they're paying record prices to fill up. Nothing to see here. He doesn't care if Ukraine goes on demolishing the Russian refining industry, in fact he probably wants them to continue, so he can keep on blaming them for high gas prices at home.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Ah. I was wondering about why he suddenly cared about Irish reunification. If he's in Ireland that explains everything, he's just doing his usual toddler thing where he absorbs and repeats whatever the adults around him say.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... he's just doing his usual toddler thing where he absorbs and repeats whatever the adults around him say.

It's a bit less stupid than that. Or at least a different kind of stupid. What he cares about right now is the midterms, so anything he can say that might appeal to some block of US voters is going to get said and he absolutely doesn't care how that ruffles feathers in allied nations. Fixing that is tomorrow's problem. Today's problem is the midterms.

 

[icerat]

America demands russia stop attacking Ukrainian... no, wait :double checks notes:

America has asked Ukraine to stop defending themselves by hitting russian diesel production and storage facilities :/ . The attacks are causing a russian diesel shortage and apparently we can't have that.

Trump tells Zelenskyy to stop ‘knocking out’ Russia’s diesel fuel

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months.

tvpworld.com

I dunno .... between some fat guy's hummer being a little more expensive to fill up, and my family and I dying ... I'm just not sure which way I lean on this ...

 

[icerat]

Interesting context from ISW: Apparently the russians wish to encircle the fortress belt by attacking from Lyman sector and Pokrovsk. See these ominous red arrows?

​

Ukrainian drones will be building new defensive mounds ... made entirely of Russian bodies ...