Democrats are now favored
to win the Senate on Polymarket, 51%-49%. Here's the updated grid; the big difference is that Talarico is now slightly favored over Paxton. I've updated the grid to include Iowa, as that race is looking more in play as well. Note that the Democrats need to win five of the seven races in order to lock up the majority. They are now favored on Polymarket in six of the races which would give them 52 seats in the upper chamber (counting two independents who caucus with the Democrats).
| State | Polling | Poly |
| Texas | D+1.6 | D+4.0 |
| Maine | NA | D+39 |
| Alaska | D+0.4 | D+3.5 |
| Ohio | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Michigan | R+0.3 | D+17 |
| North Carolina | D+7.6 | D+80 |
| Iowa | R+0.7 | R+13 |