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A Revolution Could Soon Be Under Way in Iran

The Iranian regime is now stronger then ever thanks to the stupidity of Trump
Anybody who does not think this is a bad thing is a fool.
 
Once again, regality theory rears its head. While the Iranian people perceive themselves to be under outside attack they will tolerate more authoritarianism from their own government.
 
There is also the fact that if your country is in ruin most people are more concerned with direct survival then revolution.
And while before this attack help from the US might be accepted by those against the regime, now that help is poison.
 
dudalb said:
The Iranian regime is now stronger then ever thanks to the stupidity of Trump
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possibly quite transitory - yes, the regime got tremendous cred for standing up to the US and having it back down. But it happened at a cost that is hard to fathom. It will take a long time for the damage to be repaired, and Iran is suffering through terrible climate problems.
If the Regime doesn't get far-reaching sanctions relief that will boost the economy and lead to massive investments, discontent will come back.

dudalb said:
Anybody who does not think this is a bad thing is a fool.
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You don't know that, I don't know that.
What we do know is that when Iran was marginalized there were still massive upheavals in the region.
Iran moving from shadow war to established power could be very stabilizing, as Teheran as a vested interest in stability once it gets to sell its oil and a cut from passage through the Strait.

the trick to stability is for everyone to be better of with it than without it.

And if we have learned anything from the last few years, it is Israel that thinks it can profit most from instability.
 
dudalb said:
The Iranian regime is now stronger then ever thanks to the stupidity of Trump
Anybody who does not think this is a bad thing is a fool.
Click to expand...
That is a bizarre belief.

Here is Perplexity.ai's answer to the question "How does the strength of the Iranian regime compare now to before the war with the U.S. and Israel?"

Perplexity:
"In narrow military and regional-power terms, the Islamic Republic is significantly weaker than before the war, but in regime-survival terms it has (so far) proven more resilient than many expected and is not currently on the brink of collapse. Domestically, however, its legitimacy and internal cohesion appear more fragile than in the late 2010s–early 2020s, given cumulative protests, elite losses, and wartime damage.

"Below I’ll break this down by dimension—military, regional influence, domestic control/legitimacy, and economic situation—comparing “before” (roughly pre–June 2025 nuclear strikes and Feb 2026 air campaign) to 'now.'”

Rest of response here.
 
dudalb said:
The Iranian regime is now stronger then ever thanks to the stupidity of Trump
Anybody who does not think this is a bad thing is a fool.
Click to expand...
For how long should a displaced people have a 'right of return'? I say 2,000 years is too long. The creation of Israel in 1948 was a huge mistake. The ongoing turmoil from that led directly to the situation we have today. US presence in the ME and military support for Israel has only made it worse. Someone needed to take a stand against it, and that someone is Iran.

But that's not as important as prolonged disruption of the oil supply. Global Warming is the elephant in the room. Obama tried to get us off oil, but failed because selfish Americans couldn't handle paying even a fraction of the true cost ($4 a gallon was too much for them even though it was half the price that Europe was paying). Now Trump and Netanyahu have stumbled on a way to do it that - with the essential help of Iran - can't be stopped.

With many countries recently rolling back green energy policies, the timing couldn't have been better. Anyone who does not think this is a good thing is a fool.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Once again, regality theory rears its head. While the Iranian people perceive themselves to be under outside attack they will tolerate more authoritarianism from their own government.
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Maybe, but I’m not entirely convinced. Like I’m pretty sure if Norway started killing Trump and their administration, a lot of US citizens would cheer them on. Kind of depends how bad they believe their own government to be.
 
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arthwollipot said:
I'd rather perform an autolobotomy with a spoon than give a moment of my time to Joe Rogan sponsor Perplexity.
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That seems like an extreme degree of purity requirement. Just because an advertiser pays to be promoted by what is essentially a TV show that you don’t like, you’ll boycott them? If you stick to your guns on this… you’re going to have to grow your own food and make your own clothes.
 
Emily's Cat said:
Maybe, but I’m not entirely convinced. Like I’m pretty sure if Norway started killing Trump and their administration, a lot of US citizens would cheer them on. Kind of depends how bad they believe their own government to be.
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Yeah, because when a group with a legitimate grievance against the US killed a few thousand US citizens the US reacted with restraint and totally looked at their leadership to blame.

I mean, seriously, I know US education is bad, but is it really THIS bad? Bombing a country to get the citizenship to rebel against dictators has never ever worked. It always united the country against the ones bombing.
 
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