Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[arthwollipot]

Yeah that’s pretty much what it says. HLS is identified as too great a risk and therefore the program was changed.

So what are they doing instead? Contracting with new providers?

 

[JayUtah]

So what are they doing instead? Contracting with new providers?

Yes. They are considering whether Blue Origin can deliver their spacecraft ahead of schedule, as well as extending the schedule. As I said, SpaceX may still manage to deliver. But they were obviously not on track to deliver a working lander to Artemis III.

 

[arthwollipot]

Yes. They are considering whether Blue Origin can deliver their spacecraft ahead of schedule, as well as extending the schedule. As I said, SpaceX may still manage to deliver. But they were obviously not on track to deliver a working lander to Artemis III.

When it's announced that SpaceX (or Blue Origin for that matter) is no longer a provider of HLS and that the signed and paid for contracts have been cancelled, I'll believe it.

Meanwhile I will keep watching Starship launches because they are awesome. And if Blue Origin ever gets its lander system off the ground I'll watch that too.

 

[JayUtah]

Your goalposts are moving so fast they could reach orbit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Certainly before Starship

 

[a_unique_person]

The entire Starship programme is a scam? He's deliberately defrauding the US government with no intention to deliver? No, I don't believe that for a moment. He is neither that smart, nor that stupid.

He's dumb enough to pretend he's all elite gamer and present video proof to the world he's just a fraud.

 

[arthwollipot]

He's dumb enough to pretend he's all elite gamer and present video proof to the world he's just a fraud.

Yeah but I don't think he's dumb enough to blatantly and deliberately defraud the US government for no reason. Especially since doing so would require a level of cunning that he has never demonstrated.

 

[Aridas]

Yeah but I don't think he's dumb enough to blatantly and deliberately defraud the US government for no reason. Especially since doing so would require a level of cunning that he has never demonstrated.

"For no reason" sure seems to be missing the point when potential reason is pretty much baked in already.

It gets worse when he's already managed to end or grind to a halt a number of government investigations into bad/fraudulent behavior by his companies as part of that DOGE crap.

Even beyond that, he can argue that he's not technically defrauding the US government if he spends most of that money on systems that just happen to also benefit his other endeavors and little effort on essential systems that don't directly benefit his other endeavors. It's obvious bad faith BS, but Musk often spouts similar bad faith BS.

So... no, I don't really find your argument to rest on solid ground.

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

The entire Starship programme is a scam? He's deliberately defrauding the US government with no intention to deliver? No, I don't believe that for a moment. He is neither that smart, nor that stupid.

Yeah but I don't think he's dumb enough to blatantly and deliberately defraud the US government for no reason. Especially since doing so would require a level of cunning that he has never demonstrated.

The man headed DOGE and provided the programmers responsible for shutting down oversight of his ventures. Defrauding the US government for his own profit is what he's all about.

 

[arthwollipot]

Defrauding the US government for his own profit is what he's all about.

Again, I think deliberate fraud is beyond his intellectual capability. It would require a level of planning and forethought that he hasn't demonstrated.

I think he went in like a seagull, made a lot of noise, ◊◊◊◊ all over everything, and left when he was chased away.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Deliberately not paying for rent or utilities is fraud and his SOP.
Using his media influence to tank the stock price of a company he wants to buy is a form of deliberate fraud.
Falsely claiming that his car have a bigger range then they do, and employing a dedicated department only set up to convince customers who complain that it's their fault is deliberate fraud.

Just because he has no criminal intent, because as a Libertarian, he thinks he gets to do what he wants, doesn't mean it's not intentional and fraudulent.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Anyone who reads their sales totals. It's called inside dealing. Look how many Cybertrucks we sold! Nevermind we bought them ourselves. So we didn't actually sell anything.

Now who's being deceptive? The sales numbers reported by Cox Automotive were obtained from public registration records, not a Tesla sales brochure.

I don't care.

Of course you don't. Facts don't matter, only propping up the narrative.

Tesla is selling blue sky and has been for a damn long time. Tesla is a car company promising to be a lot more. But is failing to produce much, but hot air.

Your ignorance is showing. Tesla has by far the largest EV charging network in the US, with over 33,000 fast chargers. The next largest is Electrify America with a little over 5,000. Worldwide Tesla has over 80,000 chargers installed.

In 2025 Tesla deployed 46.7 GWh of battery storage, up 49% from the previous year and generating US$3.06 billion in revenue. Tesla currently has one Megapack factory in California and another in China, both capable of producing 40 GWh per year. They are building a third factory In Texas to produce the Megablock, which integrates four Megapack 3 units, a transformer and switchgear for 20 MWh of 'drop-in' industrial energy storage.

The Tesla Semi has been on trial with several companies in the US for a while to perfect the design. It's going into volume production this year. Just because you haven't seen that yet doesn't mean it's not happening. People who monitor the activities at Tesla's factories know that it's not just 'hot air'.

I hope you can suspend your MDS for a little while and enjoy this video. Pretend it's some other company like Ford or GM (who aren't making semis, but they're just car companies...)

No doubt it is the best EV manufacturer in the auto industry. So what? It has 17% of the total worldwide BEV market share. But less than 2% of total passenger vehicle sales.

Other EV makers are producing a lot less, yet nobody is accusing them of 'failing to produce much, but hot air.' Your attempt to characterize Tesla as being an empty vessel because it produces 'less than 2% of total passenger vehicle sales', is simply dishonest. According to Tridens, EVs accounted for 20.2% of global new cars sales in 2025. 17% of that equals 3.4%. Still a tiny percentage you say? That's not important. Eventually BEVs will account for 80% or more of new car sales (its already over 90% in Norway). A rising tide floats all boats, and Tesla is well positioned to ride higher than others.

 

[Aridas]

Again, I think deliberate fraud is beyond his intellectual capability. It would require a level of planning and forethought that he hasn't demonstrated.

I disagree. Deliberate fraud honestly doesn't take much brainpower and Musk absolutely has a bunch of brainpower that he can use, even if he largely uses it in problematic ways and for selling deceit. I think that you're just seeing what you want to see, though, and not wanting to be wrong.

I think he went in like a seagull, made a lot of noise, ◊◊◊◊ all over everything, and left when he was chased away.

It's not like it takes virtually any intellectual capability to crap more on the parts that were bothering him specifically or pointedly target things that were threatening his personal interests. It's not even like he had to be a grand mastermind - things like the far right trying to dismantle USAID and generally pave the way for fraud and corruption aren't exactly some new thing and Musk was part of that network. That still ends up with the blood of hundreds of thousands of people on his hands on top of working to defraud the American public as he did what he could to further those goals.

 

[a_unique_person]

Yeah but I don't think he's dumb enough to blatantly and deliberately defraud the US government for no reason. Especially since doing so would require a level of cunning that he has never demonstrated.

He's smart enough to pay someone who can actually do it, then take all the credit. That's his MO.

 

[acbytesla]

Now who's being deceptive? The sales numbers reported by Cox Automotive were obtained from public registration records, not a Tesla sales brochure.

You so funny. That doesn't change the fact that Tesla is buying its own cars.

Of course you don't. Facts don't matter, only propping up the narrative.

Another funny. No, that's what Musk and Tesla are doing every day so suckers buy their stock.

Your ignorance is showing. Tesla has by far the largest EV charging network in the US, with over 33,000 fast chargers. The next largest is Electrify America with a little over 5,000. Worldwide Tesla has over 80,000 chargers installed.

Yes! That is the biggest thing Tesla has going for it. And nevertheless, actual profits at Tesla have never justified its stock price.

The Tesla Semi has been on trial with several companies in the US for a while to perfect the design. It's going into volume production this year. Just because you haven't seen that yet doesn't mean it's not happening. People who monitor the activities at Tesla's factories know that it's not just 'hot air'.

I hope you can suspend your MDS for a little while and enjoy this video. Pretend it's some other company like Ford or GM (who aren't making semis, but they're just car companies...)

Who the hell cares? This discussion has little or nothing to do with the NAZI Techbro. It has to do with grotesque exaggerations of Tesla and SpaceX success.

Other EV makers are producing a lot less, yet nobody is accusing them of 'failing to produce much, but hot air.' Your attempt to characterize Tesla as being an empty vessel because it produces 'less than 2% of total passenger vehicle sales', is simply dishonest. According to Tridens, EVs accounted for 20.2% of global new cars sales in 2025. 17% of that equals 3.4%. Still a tiny percentage you say? That's not important. Eventually BEVs will account for 80% or more of new car sales (its already over 90% in Norway). A rising tide floats all boats, and Tesla is well positioned to ride higher than others.

Yes,, they are. And that's the point. Their stocks reflect actual profit and losses. Not some unattainable phantom impossibility.

 

[dirtywick]

Again, I think deliberate fraud is beyond his intellectual capability. It would require a level of planning and forethought that he hasn't demonstrated.

I think he went in like a seagull, made a lot of noise, ◊◊◊◊ all over everything, and left when he was chased away.

so when he hosts a tech demo, tells the public that the robots and vehicles featured in the tech demo are autonomous, but it's actually being remote controlled and isn't autonomous, what do you call that? what do you call it when you take an $8k payment for a full self driving feature for your car in 2015 a promise it's just around the corner for a decade?

 

[jeremyp]

Which mission schedule? Elon's pie-in-the-sky schedule that he spouts off without thinking? Or the actual published mission schedule that they are really genuinely following?

The contract schedule had Musk's HLS landing on the Moon unmanned in 2024.

As they are utterly irrelevant to the fuel and cargo problems. Right? So why are they doing them?

When it's operational, Starship will mainly be used for getting large cargoes into LEO. Musk hopes that it will make Starlink profitable.

 

[jeremyp]

Thanks, but this is not insider knowledge into NASA's reasoning process. In particular it does not say that the Artemis programme was rescheduled because SpaceX couldn't deliver. What it does say is this:

Ibid.

This does not mention Artemis - it refers to issues with the HLS programme itself. And it's a statement from the ASAP, not NASA. And it's easily obtainable knowledge that I already knew.

I'm not sure what more evidence you want. SpaceX was meant to be providing the HLS for Artemis III and your quote is telling us that the HLS for Artemis III is late.

 

[jeremyp]

Yeah but I don't think he's dumb enough to blatantly and deliberately defraud the US government for no reason. Especially since doing so would require a level of cunning that he has never demonstrated.

Really? You think it's hard to defraud the government?

 

[jadebox]

The contract schedule had Musk's HLS landing on the Moon unmanned in 2024.



When it's operational, Starship will mainly be used for getting large cargoes into LEO. Musk hopes that it will make Starlink profitable.

And it might make Starlink (more?) profitable for a little while... but as terrestrial 5G expands around the world and more space-based competitors enter the market, Starlink will become less profitable.

In any case, I wonder if it would make more sense for SpaceX to use the big booster (that seems to be working well) with a disposable cargo ship which would be far simpler and cheaper to design and build and would be able to carry a larger amount of cargo into orbit.