Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[Darat]

Meme stock...

 

[JayUtah]

Roger, do you think it's reasonable to abandon all NASDAQ rules to let the SpaceX IPO join within 15 days instead of the usual year+ ?

As I've said many times, Elon Musk is adept at gaming financial systems. He's no engineer or scientist, or even an especially good entrepreneur, since his companies have to take pains to keep him from direct meddling. But he's good at making money for himself at others' expense.

Pump. And. Dump.

This looks very much like a pump-dump-strategy designed to generate obscene amounts of liquidity for Elon Musk at the expense of increasing overall market volatility. The rule requiring an issue to be traded for three months prior to being included in the NASDAQ-100 index is to allow the supply and demand to stabilize before being included in indexes and thereby affecting index funds. This is to keep conservative investment strategies relatively stable and solvent, upon which general economic strategies rely.

Just like most shareholders preparing for an IPO don't get to strong-arm the market rules, most CEOs don't get to quash all the regulatory investigations into their company's wrongdoing. Everyone else agrees to play by the rules that keep us safe. Elon Musk cheats. He's not a super-genius. He's just a cheater with a fan club.

 

[jeremyp]

How long must he 'luck out' before you admit it's more than just luck? Oh yeah, forever, because you will never admit it.

Most of his ventures have failed or are failing. Tesla did OK for a while but Musk stole that company from its actual founders and as the results of their work recedes, so does Tesla's fortunes. SpaceX is doing fine delivering satellites to LEO but that is built on the success of its former employee number one: Tom Mueller. Their current development project (Starship) is going very badly. Data centres in space are a scam.

Not sure what these 'two idiot scams that are looking good at the same time' are, but Tesla and SpaceX aren't scams. SpaceX is delivering 90% of the world's payload to space, at lower cost than the competition. The Tesla Model Y was the most popular car (of any type) in New Zealand last month, beating the Toyota RAV4 which was previously on top.

In 2025, 10,000 RAV4s were sold whereas only 1,200 Tesla model Y's were sold.

And that's without any incentives. The Cybercab is such a 'scam' that Lucid have just announced their own robotaxi design with very similar specs:-

The Lucid Lunar Is a Robotaxi for Two Passengers. This stripped-down concept prioritizes efficiency above all else

Somebody else makes the same mistake as Musk? How is that validating your point? Actually, I'll laugh if Lucid get their Robotaxi to market before Tesla. I wouldn't bet against it even though the Lucid car is still only a concept. .

https://spectrum.ieee.org/lucid-motors-robotaxi

First they laugh at you, then they fight you, then they copy you. Tesla is trialing the Cybercab right now, and expects to start volume production later this year. Lucid had better get a move on if they want to compete.

Tesla is trialling Model Y's as cybercabs. It's not going great - they still need a human in the car to press the stop button and take control when necessary. I'll remind you that Waymo has thousands of fully autonomous cabs already in service in multiple cities. "Later this year" probably means some time in the next decade.

 

[Darat]

It's a perception distortion field, despite Tesla being well behind other car companies in self drive and robocabs the perception is that they are leading the pack when in fact they are years behind others.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

As I've said many times, Elon Musk is adept at gaming financial systems. He's no engineer or scientist, or even an especially good entrepreneur, since his companies have to take pains to keep him from direct meddling. But he's good at making money for himself at others' expense.


This looks very much like a pump-dump-strategy designed to generate obscene amounts of liquidity for Elon Musk at the expense of increasing overall market volatility. The rule requiring an issue to be traded for three months prior to being included in the NASDAQ-100 index is to allow the supply and demand to stabilize before being included in indexes and thereby affecting index funds. This is to keep conservative investment strategies relatively stable and solvent, upon which general economic strategies rely.

Just like most shareholders preparing for an IPO don't get to strong-arm the market rules, most CEOs don't get to quash all the regulatory investigations into their company's wrongdoing. Everyone else agrees to play by the rules that keep us safe. Elon Musk cheats. He's not a super-genius. He's just a cheater with a fan club.

In fact he's simply a cheater with money behind him. It's incredibly easy to cheat when you've lots of money to get the watchmen to look the other way, unless you cheat those with bigger pockets or goons than you.

And Musk has been trying to run with the biggest bullies for a few years now. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he disappears in the Empty Quarter within a decade.

 

[a_unique_person]

As I've said many times, Elon Musk is adept at gaming financial systems. He's no engineer or scientist, or even an especially good entrepreneur, since his companies have to take pains to keep him from direct meddling. But he's good at making money for himself at others' expense.


This looks very much like a pump-dump-strategy designed to generate obscene amounts of liquidity for Elon Musk at the expense of increasing overall market volatility. The rule requiring an issue to be traded for three months prior to being included in the NASDAQ-100 index is to allow the supply and demand to stabilize before being included in indexes and thereby affecting index funds. This is to keep conservative investment strategies relatively stable and solvent, upon which general economic strategies rely.

Just like most shareholders preparing for an IPO don't get to strong-arm the market rules, most CEOs don't get to quash all the regulatory investigations into their company's wrongdoing. Everyone else agrees to play by the rules that keep us safe. Elon Musk cheats. He's not a super-genius. He's just a cheater with a fan club.

I'm not a financial genius but I thought the NYSE was full of them. If that's the scam it's a huge gamble that hurts everyone of its fails. Why are they enabling this? They put those rules there way back because they anticipated exactly this happening. Elon is already all in on the AI bubble and it's going to make 2008 look like a picnic when the losers crash financially.

 

[JayUtah]

I'm not a financial genius but I thought the NYSE was full of them.

NYSE is full of them, which is possibly why NASDAQ is desperate to get SpaceX's IPO (and the accompanying high-volume trading fees) and is willing to change their rules (as SpaceX demands) to sweeten the deal. NASDAQ has its share of financial geniuses, but NYSE is historically where a trillion-dollar company would do its IPO. NASDAQ officials need their solid gold megayachts too.

So much of the market is passive investment in indexes that this is what the market actually is now. So what happens ostensibly is that SpaceX goes public on NASDAQ and the early-index rule forces passive investments—i.e., your 401(k)—to bid heavily for the small amount of shares initially offered to the public. That makes the share price go up. Then later when the lockout period expires for the private shareholders, they sell the massive percentage of their reserve shares, the supply skyrockets, and the index tanks along with your 401(k). The insiders walk away with a handsome Christmas present out of your retirement savings.

George Noble (@georgenoble)

This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen. SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one. And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly...

substack.com

 

[novaphile]

I'm not a financial genius but I thought the NYSE was full of them. If that's the scam it's a huge gamble that hurts everyone of its fails. Why are they enabling this? They put those rules there way back because they anticipated exactly this happening. Elon is already all in on the AI bubble and it's going to make 2008 look like a picnic when the losers crash financially.

They enable this, because they make massive profits off all the suckers, who are sucked in.

 

[dirtywick]

NYSE is full of them, which is possibly why NASDAQ is desperate to get SpaceX's IPO (and the accompanying high-volume trading fees) and is willing to change their rules (as SpaceX demands) to sweeten the deal. NASDAQ has its share of financial geniuses, but NYSE is historically where a trillion-dollar company would do its IPO. NASDAQ officials need their solid gold megayachts too.

So much of the market is passive investment in indexes that this is what the market actually is now. So what happens ostensibly is that SpaceX goes public on NASDAQ and the early-index rule forces passive investments—i.e., your 401(k)—to bid heavily for the small amount of shares initially offered to the public. That makes the share price go up. Then later when the lockout period expires for the private shareholders, they sell the massive percentage of their reserve shares, the supply skyrockets, and the index tanks along with your 401(k). The insiders walk away with a handsome Christmas present out of your retirement savings.

George Noble (@georgenoble)

This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen. SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one. And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly...

substack.com

eventually these index fund investors will want a return. hopefully it's not just a house of cards when they do

 

[JayUtah]

eventually these index fund investors will want a return.

That's me and you, presuming you have an index-driven retirement account like a 401(k). Guess how much we matter. 2008 happened, and we recovered (eventually). 2026 will happen, and the market will recover (eventually). But in the meantime a bunch of people get to upgrade their private jets.

 

[Darat]

It's a perception distortion field, despite Tesla being well behind other car companies in self drive and robocabs the perception is that they are leading the pack when in fact they are years behind others.

We spotted a Waymo mapping the London streets and it gave us a taste of what life will soon look like on the roads

The Supercar Blondie team was very excited to spot a Waymo vehicle outside their London office and get a taste of what life will soon look like on the roads

supercarblondie.com

 

[Darat]

It's the perception distortion field with SpaceX as well - on what rational grounds can it be a company valued at "1.6 trillion"? That valuation should be laughed out of room.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I'm not a financial genius but I thought the NYSE was full of them. If that's the scam it's a huge gamble that hurts everyone of its fails. Why are they enabling this? They put those rules there way back because they anticipated exactly this happening. Elon is already all in on the AI bubble and it's going to make 2008 look like a picnic when the losers crash financially.

They're gambling on this beause stock markets have been decoupled from business performance with years, and the only strategy left is "line go up"

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Some numbers for Q1 2026 are out. Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs globally, up 7% YoY and within 2% of Wall Street's 365,000 estimate. This is of course reported as Tesla 'not meeting its targets', a very very bad thing^TM.

+7% might not sound like much, but how are other EV makers doing? BYD is down 25%, making Tesla once again the most popular EV brand on the planet. In the US GM is down 19% and Ford is down 70%.

Last year Ford canceled the F-150 Lighting, closed their battery factory and curtailed production of other EVs, promising a new line of 'more affordable' models in 2027. Meanwhile they ramped up production of their gas tracks, which I'm sure are selling like hot cakes right now with gas at over $4 a gallon.

 

[acbytesla]

Some numbers for Q1 2026 are out. Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs globally, up 7% YoY and within 2% of Wall Street's 365,000 estimate. This is of course reported as Tesla 'not meeting its targets', a very very bad thing^TM.

+7% might not sound like much, but how are other EV makers doing? BYD is down 25%, making Tesla once again the most popular EV brand on the planet. In the US GM is down 19% and Ford is down 70%.

Last year Ford canceled the F-150 Lighting, closed their battery factory and curtailed production of other EVs, promising a new line of 'more affordable' models in 2027. Meanwhile they ramped up production of their gas tracks, which I'm sure are selling like hot cakes right now with gas at over $4 a gallon.

And still, just a grotesquely overvalued car company. This Ponzi scheme will cost many investors one hell of a lot of money.

Ford P/E ratio 7.5
Tesla P/E ratio 355

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Elon is already all in on the AI bubble

AI is essential for autonomous vehicles and robots. Whether Tesla can get their robots working well enough to be marketable is questionable, but the autonomous vehicle market is here and growing. SpaceX is also in a good position to put AI in space, Whether this will get anywhere is also 'up in the air' but has significant benefits over ground based installations. Is this a gamble? Sure, but so is all innovation.

Tesla is one of the few companies using AI in practical applications that need it. Musk isn't just doing it for fun, he needs as much compute power as possible to perfect his products. Other AI compnaies are just playing around with toys and expecting us to pay for them. They will go the same way that pets.com did in the 90s. This is normal in the development of a new technology. After the bubble bursts the tech will continue to improve, and companies who are getting real value out of it will thrive.

 

[acbytesla]

AI is essential for autonomous vehicles and robots. Whether Tesla can get their robots working well enough to be marketable is questionable, but the autonomous vehicle market is here and growing. SpaceX is also in a good position to put AI in space, Whether this will get anywhere is also 'up in the air' but has significant benefits over ground based installations. Is this a gamble? Sure, but so is all innovation.

Tesla is one of the few companies using AI in practical applications that need it. Musk isn't just doing it for fun, he needs as much compute power as possible to perfect his products. Other AI compnaies are just playing around with toys and expecting us to pay for them. They will go the same way that pets.com did in the 90s. This is normal in the development of a new technology. After the bubble bursts the tech will continue to improve, and companies who are getting real value out of it will thrive.

You know what happens to bubbles don't you? They pop.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

And still, just a grotesquely overvalued car company. This Ponzi scheme will cost many investors one hell of a lot of money.

Ford P/E ratio 7.5
Tesla P/E ratio 355

Ford has a low P/E ratio because their potential is low. People investing in Tesla are betting on a repeat of the huge gains they would have made if they did so in 2019 when Tesla introduced the Model Y. Ford is pulling back from EVs, Tesla is going full steam ahead. Perhaps Ford will be like the proverbial Tortoise and win the race in the end, but right now that's looking pretty unlikely.

Tesla keeps pouring funds into ground-breaking R&D that is paying off and laying the foundation for the future. Ford thinks they can compete by concentrating on gas trucks and hoping their 'skunk works' will pull a rabbit out of the hat when the time comes. Toyota is playing a similar game, but their recently outgoing CEO admitted that this hasn't been working. Sales are dropping and they don't have the expertize to create compelling EVs.

Legacy automakers are fossils. They got where they are today with slow incremental changes optimized for a technology which is going the way of the dinosaur. They can't transition to EVs because it eats into gas car sales so they can't ramp up production enough to get the required economy of scale. The real answer is to 'cold turkey', but they can't do that without taking an enormous hit that their owners won't accept. They are Kodak. Ford's stock is overvalued. I will keep my money in the bank where it's safe and helping others.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

You know what happens to bubbles don't you? They pop.

Yes, bubbles pop. The dot-com bubble popped in 2000 and reached its low point in 2002. It took more than a decade to recover. So the internet was dead then, right?

In 2001 Apple stock was worth $0.29. The late 90's had been brutal as they failed to provide a counter to Window 95, but under Steve Job's vision they innovated. In 2007 they introduced the iPhone. Pundits were skeptical. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer predicted it would fail because it didn't have physical keys. The stock price rose to $6.70. Today Apple stock is worth $256, a gain of 883 times. The P/E ratio is 32.38. Sadly Jobs is no longer with us and Apple has stopped innovating. Some are saying their stock is overvalued by as much as 50%. But if so it's because they don't have anything new to grow the business. Apple is becoming a fossil.

 

[junkshop]

Some numbers for Q1 2026 are out. Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs globally, up 7% YoY and within 2% of Wall Street's 365,000 estimate. This is of course reported as Tesla 'not meeting its targets', a very very bad thing^TM.

+7% might not sound like much, but how are other EV makers doing? BYD is down 25%, making Tesla once again the most popular EV brand on the planet. In the US GM is down 19% and Ford is down 70%.

Last year Ford canceled the F-150 Lighting, closed their battery factory and curtailed production of other EVs, promising a new line of 'more affordable' models in 2027. Meanwhile they ramped up production of their gas tracks, which I'm sure are selling like hot cakes right now with gas at over $4 a gallon.

Tesla shares slid more than 5% on Thursday, their worst slump of the year, after the company’s deliveries and production report for the first quarter showed a drop from the prior period, with mild growth from a year earlier. Tesla has recorded annual declines in the past two years...
...Analysts were expecting 370,000 deliveries, according to StreetAccount estimates, while a company-compiled consensus by Tesla, published on March 26, said the average estimate was for 365,645 deliveries in the first quarter.

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