Transwomen are not Women - Part 15

I'm saying that the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, in the general population, can be assumed to be similar enough as the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, among prisoners - In evidence of this I present the fact that this is what society already does
What "society does" is irrelevant to whether this is valid.

It isn't valid. You will not get a number that even approximately correct with this method. It's just jumped up innumeracy.

Yet society continues on
Society will soldier on whether we do good statistics or not. Society made it through the period when we barely knew how to count. This is not a good reason for bad inference.

The number one reason for a particular group being put in prison is useful information when evaluating the risk that group presents
"Useful information" does not imply "sufficient information to draw meaningful conclusions."
 
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What "society does" is irrelevant to whether this is valid.

It isn't valid. You will not get a number that even approximately correct with this method. It's just jumped up innumeracy.
We know that men commit a lot more violence and rape from these exact figures
"Useful information" does not imply "sufficient information to draw meaningful conclusions."
It's enough information for us to ban men from women's safe spaces
 
We know that men commit a lot more violence and rape from these exact figures.
We don't need these figures at all to reach that conclusion. It's a very stupid place to start if you're trying to suss that out.

It's enough information for us to ban men from women's safe spaces
No, it isn't. If we know that gender identity non-discrimination does not increase the rate of sexual assault (or other crimes) in public bathrooms, it's wholly immaterial.
 
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We don't need these figures at all to reach that conclusion. It's a very stupid place to start if you're trying to suss that out.
So how do we know men commit a lot more violence and rape?
No, it isn't. If we know that gender identity non-discrimination does not increase the rate of sexual assault in public bathrooms, it's wholly immaterial.
We have evidence that more sexual assault takes place in safe spaces when sex isn't discriminated against:

 
So how do we know men commit a lot more violence and rape?
Call me crazy, but if I'm interested in knowing how much more violence and rape men commit than women, I'm going to look at how many violent crimes, and how many sexual assaults men and women commit. This has the advantage of more or less directly answering my question with readily available evidence.

There's no reason at all to look at less reliable data that isn't routinely compiled and that cannot, in principle, answer my question.

We have evidence that more sexual assault takes place in safe spaces when sex isn't discriminated against
Since this isn't the question I'm concerned with, this too is immaterial.
 
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Call me crazy, but if I'm interested in knowing how much more violence and rape men commit than women, I'm going to look at how many violent crimes, and how many sexual assaults men and women commit. This has the advantage of more or less directly answering my question with readily available evidence.

There's no reason at all to look at less reliable data that isn't routinely compiled and that cannot, in principle, answer my question.
And where do you get the figures on how many violent crimes are committed if not by the reason they're in prison?
Since this isn't the question I'm concerned with, this too is immaterial.
You asked whether we know if gender identity non-discrimination does not increase the rate of sexual assault in public bathrooms and the results are in
 
And where do you get the figures on how many violent crimes are committed if not by the reason they're in prison?
I look at crime rates. There's no reason to look at "what percentage of people in prison are in prison for committing at least one instance of this class of crime," because it's a totally different measure, and particularly as this will not allow me to answer my question.

You asked whether we know if gender identity non-discrimination does not increase the rate of sexual assault in public bathrooms and the results are in
I didn't ask whether we know that. We do know that. Public restrooms are not changing rooms. Gender identity non-discrimination does not imply unisex facilities (which is why they had to be separately legislated in NYC).
 
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If you say you aren't cis, then you are not cis.

(That's how self-i.d. works.)
It is not, and we've been over it several times. Gender self ID "is the concept that a person's legal sex or gender is determined by their gender identity, without medical or judicial requirements".


and their gender identity is further defined as "the personal sense of one's own gender".


and gender being "the range of social, psychological, cultural, and behavioral aspects of being a man (or boy), woman (or girl), or third gender".


At no point anywhere credible is self ID defined as meaning "whatever I say something is".
 
And again, I will post the information you snipped out and ignored from my previous post


2. Ministry of Justice 2020 Data
The question of whether transwomen match male or female patterns of criminality is specifically addressed by the 2020 FOI referenced by Fair Play For Women (who have submitted evidence to the Committee). This is first time there has been official data to compare the rate of sex offending in 3 different groups. Men vs women vs transwomen.
MOJ stats show 76 of the 129 male-born prisoners identifying as transgender (not counting any with GRCs) have at least 1 conviction of sexual offence. This includes 36 convictions for rape and 10 for attempted rape. These are clearly male type crimes (rape is defined as penetration with a penis).
Here is the number compared with figures for sex offending rates in men and women over the same period
And in response to this pitifully small (and going back to 1973, outdated) sampling, some guy here pointed out:

"The sample size also isn't large enough for a reasonable level of confidence. You can't generalize from this population."
 
I look at crime rates. There's no reason to look at "what percentage of people in prison are in prison for committing at least one instance of this class of crime," because it's a totally different measure, and particularly as this will not allow me to answer my question.
Prison statistics are measures of crime rates
I didn't ask whether we know that. We do know that. Public restrooms are not changing rooms. Gender identity non-discrimination does not imply unisex facilities (which is why they had to be separately legislated in NYC).
Public bathrooms and changing rooms are both places where women seek safety from predators - predators that use the same methods in both situations.

Gender identity non-discrimination can only imply unisex facilities and I don't recognise the authority of the NYC transit system over the English language
 
This is ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ and you should ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ know it. Throughout the overwhelming majority of my life AND YOURS the word "woman" was understood to be synonymous with female human being,
We are going to rinse and repeat this one again? Quelle surprise.

When i took my psyche courses in the 90s, and my future wife was majoring in psychology right into postgrad, gender did not at all have the meanings you badly assert here with no evidence. Gender meant exactly what it does today. I'm sure the hillbillies at the corner store weren't up on the established thinking within the relevant communities at the time, but that ain't my problem.

Your statement, as is becoming a habit now, is a factual lie. For the overwhelming majority of my life, gender has meant exactly what it does now. My preadolescent understanding may not have been versed in the contemporary adult definitions (I doubt I ever thought about what it meant), but that ain't the "overwhelming majority of my life" by any stretch.
FFS. Now you're playing the same idiotic linguistic game that p0lka was, pretending like if the sign used the specific word "female" everything would magically be fixed. You know it's ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Thermal, don't pretend like you think this makes sense.
That's not what I said. I think stating unequivocally "Females Only" reframes the argument a little, and surely removes ambiguity for me and many others. Sure, the hard core TRAs would still push against it, but those of us in the peanut gallery would not be as inclined to be supportive. It's far easier to say "well a transwoman is sort of a woman" than it is to say "a transwoman is a female".
Again, ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊. You're pretending that the appropriation of a word within the last two minutes somehow means that it has changed in all cases across the entire goddamned world.
The textbooks I bought in the 90s beg to differ with how long ten minutes is.
You ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ KNOW that the word "women" on the restroom door uses the FIRST definition, you KNOW it has NEVER meant "anyone who says they have womanly feelings inside their heads".
I agree, and if you would pay attention for ten ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ seconds, you would already know that. The secondary meaning has slipped in without anyone bothering to clarify the difference.
◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊. I refuse to surrender the word "woman" so that it can only mean some mystical feeling that males can appropriate in order to violate female boundaries.
No one is asking you to surrender anything. You dont define the English language, Ms. Dumpty.
You have never actually given a reasonable or coherent answer. All your answers have been wishy-washy sidestepping and tapdancing. So far as I can tell, you're doing your damnedest to avoid having to acknowledge that you want to give some males special extra privileges regardless of how much this ◊◊◊◊◊ over real women.
You mighy try reading the posts then.
There's no such thing as an "imposter" transgender identified male because LITERALLY the only thing that makes them transgender in the first place is that they said the magical phrase!
Again, not true. I can utter the magic phrase right now and it will change nothing about my internal sense of self. Watch: "I'm a transwoman". Yeah, nothing changed. I'm still a guy.

And we all know the vacuous response: "But if you said that in a women's room, they couldn't touch you". Yes, that's why it is being an impostor. It's a deliberate untruth used to gain advantage. This doesn't need to be explained to you or anyone else.

Saying "there is no such thing as an impostor" just makes us look stupid. Please don't do it.
 
The prison statistics are from 2019
You forgot to read. The cited study draws on data going back to the 70s, before transgender was even a widely understood phenomenon, and the word was scarcely in use yet.
And he's also yet to show that's true
76 offenders from years gone by in a single jurisdiction in a planet of billions is not representative enough to draw conclusions by anyone loosely familiar with statistical inference.
 

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