Transwomen are not Women - Part 15

[smartcooky]

Where do you think the prisoners come from if not the general population of transwomen?

They are magicked out of thin air of course

Do you deny that the #1 reason for a transwoman to be in prison is a sex offence and they are way, way in the lead?

Yup, but irrefutable facts have no impact on trans allies

 

[smartcooky]

The men and women in that study are also not a random sample so we are comparing apples with apples


The evidence presented shows that 60% of transwomen prisoners are there for sexual offences. That shows that the #1 reason for a transwoman to be in prison is sexual offences

Exactly!!

 

[mumblethrax]

The men and women in that study are also not a random sample so we are comparing apples with apples

I'm contesting that we can generalize from transwomen in prison to transwomen in the general population. Whether we can compare one class of prisoner to another is neither here nor there.

The evidence presented shows that 60% of transwomen prisoners are there for sexual offences.

Approximately, anyway (strictly speaking, it shows that around 60% of legally male transwomen prisoners have been sentenced for at least one sexual offense). This isn't particularly relevant to anything I'm arguing, so I'm not sure why you've asked me about it.

 

[mumblethrax]

You say that, but then as you did earlier, you won't. I don't trust you, so I'm not wasting time trying.

I haven't given you any reason to distrust me.

Oh, I'm sure you think that

I know that, by virtue of being the person not parroting trans ally dogma.

Not biting, sorry. You've used up all the slack.

Meaning you don't have responses to the clearly articulated critiques of your bad arguments.

 

[angrysoba]

Its obvious to me that you are just
parroting the trans-ally position, and that puts us irreconcilably at polar opposite sides of this issue.
I will be wasting no further time trying to argue down your brick wall of
dogma

"Any boundary" - that is all the definition that is necessary

That is not a boundary


No, I won't have to do any such thing.

As I said, you are just
parroting trans-ally
dogma.

Yup.
I don't need waste any more time justifying my opinion to you, because it is clear you will just reject anything that doesn't fit with your predetermined conclusions.

Indeed - one could almost say he's
parroting parroting!

@mumblethrax ,

Typically smartcooky enjoys ducking out of arguments and then even blocking people who he doesn't like arguing with only to then claim he never did block them and also to claim that people won't argue with him because they are intellectual cowards.

@smartcooky, I think you should keep arguing with mumblethrax to prove me wrong. It becomes tedious when you base so much of your arguments on rhetoric. Now is your chance to prove you have substance to them as well.

 

[Pixel42]

You are well aware that this is not the argument.

Of course it is. The comfort and safety of any number of females is of no consequence when set against the comfort and safety of any male. That is exactly what you are arguing, whether you can see it or not.

 

[mumblethrax]

Of course it is. The comfort and safety of any number of females is of no consequence when set against the comfort and safety of any male. That is exactly what you are arguing, whether you can see it or not.

No, this is not the argument I've made, and I neither contend nor believe that the comfort and safety of women is of no consequence when set against the comfort and safety of any male.

You are again dishonestly imputing beliefs and intentions.

 

[Manger Douse]

I'm contesting that we can generalize from transwomen in prison to transwomen in the general population. Whether we can compare one class of prisoner to another is neither here nor there.

Of course we can generalise from the prison population. The reason why women need safe spaces is because male prisoners have such a high % of convictions for rape and violence

Approximately, anyway (strictly speaking, it shows that around 60% of legally male transwomen prisoners have been sentenced for at least one sexual offense). This isn't particularly relevant to anything I'm arguing, so I'm not sure why you've asked me about it.

Your arguing that the figures you've been given don't show that transwomen are massively over represented when it comes to sexual assault convictions

 

[mumblethrax]

Of course we can generalise from the prison population. The reason why women need safe spaces is because male prisoners have such a high % of convictions for rape and violence

No, this is statistically invalid, for the reasons already given. You can't infer from a biased sample to a general population, and the sample is too small for a high degree of confidence.

Your arguing that the figures you've been given don't show that transwomen are massively over represented when it comes to sexual assault convictions

I'm not arguing that, but again, this statistic does not establish that this is true. If transwomen have lower rates of criminality in general, a higher rate of sex offenses among the crimes they commit is not sufficient to establish that they are overrepresented among perpetrators of sexual offenses.

 

[Pixel42]

No, this is not the argument I've made, and I neither contend nor believe that the comfort and safety of women is of no consequence when set against the comfort and safety of any male.

You are again dishonestly imputing beliefs and intentions.

I am imputing nothing about your beliefs or intentions, for the record I don't doubt that you mean well. I am simply pointing out the inevitable consequences of your arguments for women.

 

[Manger Douse]

No, this is statistically invalid, for the reasons already given. You can't infer from a biased sample to a general population, and the sample is too small for a high degree of confidence.

As I've just told you we already infer that males are of an increased risk of committing rape and violence because of the "biased" sample we see in the prison population

I'm not arguing that, but again, this statistic does not establish that this is true. If transwomen have lower rates of criminality in general, a higher rather of sex offenses among the crimes they commit is not sufficient to establish that they are overrepresented among perpetrators of sexual offenses.

A higher rate of sex offences vs other offences still means the reason why they're in prison - sex offences - is still over represented

 

[Pixel42]

Let me try again.

Consequences of granting trans identifying males access to what were previously female only toilets

A: For trans identifying males:

1. Definite: hurt feelings about not being treated as if they really were women in these specific circumstances assuaged
2. Possible: decrease in chances of being attacked by males whilst using a toilet

B: For women:

1. Definite: discomfort (leaning towards fear in those who have been the victims of male sexual violence) about having to share what were previously female only spaces with male strangers
2. Possible: increase in chances of being attacked by males whilst using a toilet.

I am not denying A(1), I simply don't think it outweighs - and should be given priority over - B(1).

Trans allies such as mumblethrax appear to be ignoring B(1) completely.

 

[mumblethrax]

I am imputing nothing about your beliefs or intentions [...]

You are. You have done so multiple times. You did not tell me it's a consequence of my argument. You have told me it's what I'm arguing.

It isn't. You know it isn't. Cut it out.

As I've just told you we already infer that males are of an increased risk of committing rape and violence because of the "biased" sample we see in the prison population.

Men in prison is a much larger sample, but the sample is still biased (no need for scare quotes). We can't make an inference from prisoners to non-prisoners. It does not follow from the fact that a male prisoner is ~5 times more to be in prison for sexual offenses than a female prisoner that any given man is ~5 times more likely to commit a sexual assault than any given woman (it's probably much higher than that). And that true because women are much less likely to be prisoners in the first place.

This is just bad statistics.

A higher rate of sex offences vs other offences still means the reason why they're in prison - sex offences - is still over represented

This is meaningless for evaluating risk to the public, or the relative risk presented by different categories of prisoners.

 

[lionking]

You are. You have done so multiple times. You did not tell me it's a consequence of my argument. You have told me it's what I'm arguing.

It isn't. You know it isn't. Cut it out.


Men in prison is a much larger sample, but the sample is still biased (no need for scare quotes). We can't make an inference from prisoners to non-prisoners. It does not follow from the fact that a male prisoner is ~5 times more to be in prison for sexual offenses than a female prisoner that any given man is ~5 times more likely to commit a sexual assault than any given woman (it's probably much higher than that). And that true because women are much less likely to be prisoners in the first place.

This is just bad statistics.


This is meaningless for evaluating risk to the public, or the relative risk presented by different categories of prisoners.

The rates of sexual offences by transwomen have been quoted many times in this thread. You clearly haven’t looked at them.

 

[Pixel42]

You are. You have done so multiple times. You did not tell me it's a consequence of my argument. You have told me it's what I'm arguing.

It isn't. You know it isn't. Cut it out.

It is what you're arguing. That doesn't necessarily mean you believe or intend it to be. I've been giving you the benefit of the doubt in that respect.

 

[mumblethrax]

Let me try again.

Consequences of granting trans identifying males access to what were previously female only toilets

A: For trans identifying males:

1. Definite: hurt feelings about not being treated as if they really were women in these specific circumstances assuaged
2. Possible: decrease in chances of being attacked by males whilst using a toilet

B: For women:

1. Definite: discomfort (leaning towards fear in those who have been the victims of male sexual violence) about having to share what were previously female only spaces with male strangers
2. Possible: increase in chances of being attacked by males whilst using a toilet.

I am not denying A(1), I simply don't think it outweighs - and should be given priority over - B(1).

Trans allies such as mumblethrax appear to be ignoring B(1) completely.

I'm more likely to ignore A1. It's generally a bad idea to base public policy on feelings, because it's too easy to game feelings. (I recall a movement a few years ago that tried to litigate men's "emotional distress" at their female partners having had abortions--bad stuff).

I am curious, however, why A1 is "assuaged feelings" while B1 is "discomfort (leaning towards fear)". I expect that a passing transwoman using the men's room will also feel discomfort (leaning towards fear). So will a passing transman required to use the ladies (although that's probably less fear of sexual assault than fear of assault and battery).

It is what you're arguing.

No, it isn't. You cannot point to where I have made that argument. That means I'm not making it.

 

[Manger Douse]

Men in prison is a much larger sample, but the sample is still biased (no need for scare quotes). We can't make an inference from prisoners to non-prisoners. It does not follow from the fact that a male prisoner is ~5 times more to be in prison for sexual offenses than a female prisoner that any given man is ~5 times more likely to commit a sexual assault than any given woman (it's probably much higher than that). And that true because women are much less likely to be prisoners in the first place.

This is just bad statistics.

As I've just told you we already infer that men are of an increased risk of committing rape and violence because of the "biased" sample we see in the prison population and yet you claim this is bad statistics?

This is meaningless for evaluating risk to the public, or the relative risk presented by different categories of prisoners.

It is not meaningless when we evaluate the risk to the public, or the relative risk presented by different categories of prisoners.

 

[smartcooky]

The rates of sexual offences by transwomen have been quoted many times in this thread. You clearly haven’t looked at them.

Indeed.
Transgender identified males, particularly but not exclusively the self-ID ones, are a clear and present danger to women everywhere. We have seen that demonstrated time and time again. Its on the public record - campaigns of letter writing to the employers of anyone who speak publicly against them, threats of violence and arson against venues that host speakers, threats of violence and death against outspoken gender critical women and their families, such as Janice Raymond, Sheila Jeffreys, Prof. Frances Widdowson, Prof. Kathleen Lowery, Maya Forstater, Dr. Helen Joyce, Prof. Kathleen Stock, Prof. Selina Todd, Laura Tanner, Linda Gottfredson, Lisa Littman, and of course JK Rowling. Then there is the very public incitement to punch and kill TERFS. Trans-allies dismiss all this as unimportant.

 

[mumblethrax]

As I've just told you we already infer that men are of an increased risk of committing rape and violence because of the "biased" sample we see in the prison population and yet you claim this is bad statistics?

I'm saying that the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, in the general population, cannot be assumed to be the same as the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, among prisoners.

Yes, that's bad statistics. It's just wrong.

It is not meaningless when we evaluate the risk to the public, or the relative risk presented by different categories of prisoners.

Yes, it is. This number does not tell you anything useful for those purposes on its own.

 

[Manger Douse]

I'm saying that the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, in the general population, cannot be assumed to be the same as the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, among prisoners.

I'm saying that the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, in the general population, can be assumed to be similar enough as the rate of sexual offenses committed by men, relative to women, among prisoners - In evidence of this I present the fact that this is what society already does

Yes, that's bad statistics. It's just wrong.

Yet society continues on

Yes, it is. This number does not tell you anything useful for those purposes on its own.

The number one reason for a particular group being put in prison is useful information when evaluating the risk that group presents