Trump's promised ICE raids have begun

theprestige said:
Occam's razor says the first option is the likeliest.

How would the second option even play out, in your view? It looks like the very first thing you did, when the hoax was exposed, was try to make it ICE's fault the hoax was so easy for you to believe in the first place. If even skeptics respond this way, I doubt most of the people blindly hating ICE will feel any different, or work any harder to separate truth from fiction.
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There is also the option that ICE is lying through its teeth, or perhaps more likely, is so disorganised that they have no idea who they are grabbing to fill up the quota. If Leon is actually in Guatemala, there is no hoax, only a wrong information to the family that he is dead.

When Leon finally shows up, we’ll learn what happened. If he doesn’t show up, there is also the option that it was true that he died, and somebody tried to create the hoax that he is in hospital.
 
steenkh said:
There is also the option that ICE is lying through its teeth
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That's conceivable. But all the other sources (including foreign governments and journalists) match up with ICE's claims and not with the family's. You really need to read the entire Snopes article, not just the top couple paragraphs. Even if we discount ICE's account as unreliable, it still looks like a hoax.
steenkh said:
If Leon is actually in Guatemala
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"If". And if he's not? If he was never in Guatemala?

Because nobody can find any records of him ever being in Guatemala, and people have searched. It really looks like he's not in Guatemala.
steenkh said:
When Leon finally shows up
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When he shows up? If he died in 2019, as the Chilean journalist suggests, then he's not going to show up at all, is he?
 
steenkh said:
You are being disingenuous now, or possibly desperate. It was actually in Guatemala that there was a man called Luis Leon who died in the hospital in 2019.
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Uh, no.
"Pino also found that a Luis Leon with the same birthday died in Santiago, Chile, in 2019."
 
Ziggurat said:
What makes you say that? Your quote certainly doesn't support that conclusion. You're relying on things the family said (they said someone told them he died) in order to support your conclusion about whether the family is lying, without any independent verification of any of it. So far, it doesn't seem that anything the family has said can be backed up.
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Cool, like I said, I don't really care. The family said they were told information from an immigration attorney. If they made it up, they made it up. That sucks that they did that. Do you need me to hate them or something? I said I didn't have a dog in the fight.
theprestige said:
Occam's razor says the first option is the likeliest.
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The first option is generally that the government is lying since this administration took over. That option is correct more often than not (see the new "obama treason" claims for a recent example).
theprestige said:
How would the second option even play out, in your view? It looks like the very first thing you did, when the hoax was exposed, was try to make it ICE's fault the hoax was so easy for you to believe in the first place. If even skeptics respond this way, I doubt most of the people blindly hating ICE will feel any different, or work any harder to separate truth from fiction.
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No, ICE made it so easy to believe that it was ICE's fault in the first place. They've had some pretty high profile ◊◊◊◊ ups that the government has admitted to, and released innocent people, on multiple occasions. Just because you're carrying water for them, and you seem to trust them blindly, doesn't mean others should. If you're going to piss and moan about how "skeptics" respond, then why don't you try it first? Perhaps climb off that high horse, and look at what's happening around you with regards to how ICE is acting.
 
Ziggurat said:
That's a copout.

We don't actually know if he was even deported. We have his word for it, but nothing else. Almost nothing about the story can be verified.

And if the process as presented isn't what happened, then you're complaining about a fiction. So, did the process as presented happen? We have no ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ idea. The ONLY thing the journalist even claims was verified is that Thomas was once in BoP custody. She did not confirm that he had an injury, and was told not to fly. She did not confirm the charges against him. She did not even confirm that he was actually deported.
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"If the story is presented accurately, then I find the following:" Just paste that in front of every post anybody ever makes about any story. It's kind of so obvious it should be understood without spelling it out, but here we are, in the realm of the otiose.
 
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steenkh said:
There is also the option that ICE is lying through its teeth, or perhaps more likely, is so disorganised that they have no idea who they are grabbing to fill up the quota. If Leon is actually in Guatemala, there is no hoax, only a wrong information to the family that he is dead.

When Leon finally shows up, we’ll learn what happened. If he doesn’t show up, there is also the option that it was true that he died, and somebody tried to create the hoax that he is in hospital.
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Leon died in Chile in 2019.

I suppose it's possible that the US, Guatemalan, and Chilean governments are all lying about a deportee that just happens to have the same name and birthdate as a Chilean national who died in a Chilean hospital in 2019. Is that your hypothesis?
 
steenkh said:
You are being disingenuous now, or possibly desperate. It was actually in Guatemala that there was a man called Luis Leon who died in the hospital in 2019.
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From the Snopes article:

"An updated report by The Morning Call on July 21 also said that a Chilean journalist found no record of Leon at the hospital his family said treated him for pneumonia. Furthermore, the journalist found that a man with the same name and date of birth died in Santiago, Chile, in 2019."​
​
www.snopes.com

What we know about claim ICE deported Chilean grandad Luis Leon to Guatemala

The Guatemalan Institute of Migration denied having received the 82-year-old Pennsylvania man despite his family insisting ICE secretly deported him.
www.snopes.com www.snopes.com
​
The entire thing was an anti-ICE fabrication from beginning to end.
 
Ziggurat said:
I keep looking around and finding that people keep lying about how ICE is acting.
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Surely you mean you keep looking around and tentatively finding that people keep lying about how ICE is acting if the stories you're reading to the contrary are themselves accurate. I wouldn't want you to blindly accept the truth of things you can't verify yourself.
 
plague311 said:
The first option is generally that the government is lying since this administration took over. That option is correct more often than not (see the new "obama treason" claims for a recent example).
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So your hypothesis is that the US, Guatemalan, and Chilean governments are all lying about a deportee who just coincidentally happens to have the same name and birthdate as a Chilean national who died in Chile in 2019. And you think this is somehow a simpler explanation than "the family made up some anti-ICE nonsense and a local news outlet ran with it and it went viral". Glad we cleared that up.
 
It's not exactly new that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof; and I'd extend that to the juicier the story, the less likely it is to be true.

While still holding to the opinion that some/many/most stories are neither completely true nor completely false, and that when people lie they'll lie about the juicier stuff first.
 
Either way, you can expect there to be hoaxes, misunderstandings, and what have you during a large crisis such as this. There were myths and misinformation (deliberate and otherwise) during 9/11, too, for example. The American Gestapo starts rounding up people nationwide and sending them to literal concentration camps, and doubtlessly some people out of a population of 350 million plus will make up stories.
 
Ziggurat said:
Uh, no.
"Pino also found that a Luis Leon with the same birthday died in Santiago, Chile, in 2019."
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You are right. I apologise to you and the prestige.

But I find it hard to believe that we are talking about the same Luis Leon. The idea that the family should say “hey, what about claiming our long dead grandpa was taken by ICE” still seems to me to be disingenuous. But of course, you can never discount sheer stupidity when people make up claims.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Either way, you can expect there to be hoaxes, misunderstandings, and what have you during a large crisis such as this. There were myths and misinformation (deliberate and otherwise) during 9/11, too, for example. The American Gestapo starts rounding up people nationwide and sending them to literal concentration camps, and doubtlessly some people out of a population of 350 million plus will make up stories.
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Do you ever wonder how much of your worldview is based on made up stories that you accepted uncritically because they sounded like all the other made up stories you've already accepted uncritically?
 
steenkh said:
You are right. I apologise to you and the prestige.

But I find it hard to believe that we are talking about the same Luis Leon. The idea that the family should say “hey, what about claiming our long dead grandpa was taken by ICE” still seems to me to be disingenuous. But of course, you can never discount sheer stupidity when people make up claims.
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Like I said to plague:

So your hypothesis is that the US, Guatemalan, and Chilean governments are all lying about a deportee who just coincidentally happens to have the same name and birthdate as a Chilean national who died in Chile in 2019. And you think this is somehow a simpler explanation than "the family made up some anti-ICE nonsense and a local news outlet ran with it and it went viral". Glad we cleared that up.
 
A few pages back there was a story about a US citizen, Andrea Velez, who was arrested by ICE. Initial reporting made it sound like she was swept up for deportation because those racist ICE officers will try to deport anyone Hispanic looking. Then it turned out they arrested her for allegedly assaulting an ICE officer, not because they thought she was an illegal immigrant.

So, what's happened with the case since then? She was supposed to have another court hearing on July 17. But there's been no news coverage of that hearing. Why not? If that case was really another example of ICE abuse, I would expect continuing coverage of this injustice. Instead we get silence.

Which inclines me to believe she probably did assault the officer, and we will probably never hear anything more about the case.
 
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