Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[Ziggurat]

Taco Tits is getting desperate. He thought he was just joining the lunchroom bully in picking on the weird kid no one likes, but ever since someone pointed out the Strait of Hormuz is right there and Iran can shut down the world's fuel supply at any time, nukes or no, he really wants a way to chicken out like usual.

Shutting down the Strait isn't as simple a task as you might imagine. Iran could probably do it for a short time, but doing so indefinitely is not so easy. But the real kicker is what would happen even if they did. You see, neither the US nor Israel actually depend on the Strait in order to get oil. But you know who does? China. It's in the US's interest to keep the Strait open because of the effects of closure on some of our trading partners, but it would have little direct impact on the US. But China depends directly on oil passing through the Strait. Do you think China would be OK with the Strait closing? Do you think Iran is in a position to piss off China?

 

[GlennB]

Yes, if they did moved out their 900 lbs of 60% HEU and kept it safe, Trump kinda failed.

New centrifuges can probably be built easily and quickly, or just imported, and Iran will have a nuke in a few weeks.
Mission Not Accomplished.

Then why haven't they got one now?

 

[Ziggurat]

New centrifuges can probably be built easily and quickly,

No, they cannot.

or just imported,

From who?

and Iran will have a nuke in a few weeks.

Yeah, I don't think you understand how this works.

 

[Hercules56]

Then why haven't they got one now?

They chose to keep there HEU at 60%, hoping it would avoid attacks because its not weapons grade, but easily can be turned into it.

They bet poorly.

 

[Hercules56]

No, they cannot.

From who?

Yeah, I don't think you understand how this works.

Then fill in the missing details.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

No wonder all the Hawks in Israel and the US are having blue balls: this was supposed to be the coup-de-grace of the Mullah Regime, the raison d'être for the B2 and MOP programs costing probably $100 billion+ over the years, the Victory of US superior weapons over the Muslim nuclear bombmakers - and it seems to have fizzled out with little to show for.
No wonder oil markets are ticking up: analysts have been waiting for this day for literally decades, and now it has come and gone without much more than a big hiccup as far as Americans and the World Economy are concerned.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Everyone's happy.

Bibi is happy, he bombed the ◊◊◊◊ out of Iran.
Khamenei is happy, he rocketed the ◊◊◊◊ out of Israel.
Trump is happy, he penetrated deep into Khamenei's mountainous behind.
Khamenei is happy, he drove the U.S. away without even hitting them.
Putin is happy, he can keep his Terrorproxy, no regime change.
Xi is happy, Iran needs new weapon systems and Putin has his hands full.

The important thing is that everybody had a good time and got plenty of healthy exercise in the fresh air!

 

[The Great Zaganza]

"All right everyone! Let's do this again ... never!"

 

[Ziggurat]

Then fill in the missing details.

Centrifuges are hard to make, and take a long time to properly set up. Which is why they buried them so deep at Fordow. If they were easy to make, there would be no point in spending so much money to protect them. And even when you have them set up, running them to enrich uranium takes time.

If getting nuclear weapons were as easy as you seem to think, Iran would already have them.

 

[angrysoba]

Sure, Jan.

Iran got a pasting.

Yet the fact that they are flaunting the nuclear program is clearly going to make plenty in Israel (and the US) annoyed.

It probably won't be long before things heat up again.

 

[Ziggurat]

No wonder all the Hawks in Israel and the US are having blue balls: this was supposed to be the coup-de-grace of the Mullah Regime

No it wasn't. It was supposed to take out their uranium enrichment capacity. Nothing more.

, the raison d'être for the B2 and MOP programs costing probably $100 billion+ over the years

It's really strange that you're conflating the B2 and the MOP programs as if they were one. They aren't. The B2 program was started primarily with the Soviet Union in mind, not Iran. It has proven useful for Iran, but Iran is hardly its only or even most important use case. China probably is now. As for the MOP, that hasn't cost anywhere close to as much money. I'd say it's been worth the investment.

, the Victory of US superior weapons over the Muslim nuclear bombmakers - and it seems to have fizzled out with little to show for.

Suppose for the sake of argument that we just completely eliminated their uranium enrichment capacity. What spectacle would you expect that to produce? How would it look any different from what we're seeing now?

No wonder oil markets are ticking up: analysts have been waiting for this day for literally decades, and now it has come and gone without much more than a big hiccup as far as Americans and the World Economy are concerned.

Good.

 

[Hercules56]

Centrifuges are hard to make, and take a long time to properly set up. Which is why they buried them so deep at Fordow. If they were easy to make, there would be no point in spending so much money to protect them. And even when you have them set up, running them to enrich uranium takes time.

If getting nuclear weapons were as easy as you seem to think, Iran would already have them.

So what stopped them from enriching their 60% HEU to the final 90%? It would only take 2 weeks, according to the IDFascists.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

They chose to keep there HEU at 60%, hoping it would avoid attacks because its not weapons grade, but easily can be turned into it.

They bet poorly.

I agree, but the bet was "We can get away without fully enriching our uranium to weapons grade." They will not make that mistake again.

If I were Iran, getting a working nuke would now be my top priority no matter how peaceful my intentions had been, because not having a nuke is clearly not sufficient deterrent to keep Israel from wrecking their crap unprovoked.

If I were an authoritarian leader of Russia, burdened by an aging nuclear stockpile and losing a war I would really like people to be distracted from, selling Iran a couple of rejects for them to fix up and test-fire for a demonstration would be a pretty tempting idea.

But since I am neither, alls I can do is point out how ◊◊◊◊◊◊ up it is that the path to peaceful deescalation relies on the level headed restraint of goddamn Iran and Russia.

 

[theprestige]

Iran got a pasting.

Yet the fact that they are flaunting the nuclear program is clearly going to make plenty in Israel (and the US) annoyed.

US and Israeli intelligence laughs in BDA.

It probably won't be long before things heat up again.

It would be kind of hilarious if they Saddam Hussein'd themselves into getting turbo wrecked over a WMD program they no longer have but can't admit to giving up.

 

[theprestige]

New centrifuges can probably be built easily and quickly, or just imported, and Iran will have a nuke in a few weeks.

My guy out here trying to get a uranium centrifuge like ordering a chemistry set from Toys'R'Us LMAO

 

[Hercules56]

I agree, but the bet was "We can get away without fully enriching our uranium to weapons grade." They will not make that mistake again.

If I were Iran, getting a working nuke would now be my top priority no matter how peaceful my intentions had been, because not having a nuke is clearly not sufficient deterrent to keep Israel from wrecking their crap unprovoked.

If I were an authoritarian leader of Russia, burdened by an aging nuclear stockpile and losing a war I would really like people to be distracted from, selling Iran a couple of rejects for them to fix up and test-fire for a demonstration would be a pretty tempting idea.

But since I am neither, alls I can do is point out how ◊◊◊◊◊◊ up it is that the path to peaceful deescalation relies on the level headed restraint of goddamn Iran and Russia.

Yep, their nuclear program will now be totally secret. They will make HEU as soon as they can and build a bomb.

 

[Hercules56]

My guy out here trying to get a uranium centrifuge like ordering a chemistry set from Toys'R'Us LMAO

Russia, or China or NK will sell it to them.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Suppose for the sake of argument that we just completely eliminated their uranium enrichment capacity. What spectacle would you expect that to produce? How would it look any different from what we're seeing now?

We know exactly at what stage the uraniaum enrichment program was. From this we know that it will take Iran less than a year to rebuild their centrifuges and start further enrichment.
We are very much at the same place we were after the Stuxnet attack, nothing more.


I find it utterly bizarre that you and so many think that just because the program got derailed again, this time it's for good.

 

[Hercules56]

We know exactly at what stage the uraniaum enrichment program was. From this we know that it will take Iran less than a year to rebuild their centrifuges and start further enrichment.
We are very much at the same place we were after the Stuxnet attack, nothing more.


I find it utterly bizarre that you and so many think that just because the program got derailed again, this time it's for good.

Its the current MAGA strategy, otherwise Trump's war will look like a waste of time.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Yes. Your cherry picking of history, and your absolute hatred of the US and Israel. The pattern is indeed clear.

I do believe that shoe is on the other foot.

Zionism has a recorded history its supporters have no hope in hell of dealing with successfully. Today's USA is openly breaking the law, attacking allies, embracing enemies, threatening territorial conquests and annexations, while participating in both (a) aggressive war and (b) live genocide. None of which can be supported in line with the law, signed treaties, or moral reasoning. What's it to be, then, "Bully, bully, I'm fat and woolly"?

All is to be ignored in the name of... what? Feelings? I'm afraid you'll need to actually produce a valid argument. I can look up references for you if you need them.

Point of educational order to help those in clear need:

• Zionism is an atheist political philosophy -- greatly predating WWII and the Holocaust -- based on the then-consensus at the turn of the 20th century that colonialism was ennobling for savages and that conquest was the right of the enlightened master races.
• Israel is a nation-state under the same laws and obligations as all others, not a holy land answering to some higher calling.
• Neither Zionism nor Israel is synonymous with Judaism.
• Israelis are not synonymous with Semites, either.
• Complaints of antisemitism when either is criticized are doubly misplaced.

No charge, a freebie. Now, on your way.