Agreed almost 100 percent, except that "right to repair" will continue to be an issue for things with software and proprietary parts for their entire life, and for warranties it kind of depends on how long they go. My Hyundai came with a 100 thousand mile ten year warranty. While a warranty like that would make it pretty silly to go to a third party for a major repair, it would have some leverage if there were some kicker that says replacing a trunk latch relay or a shock absorber or a bent fender voids it. For such issues, US law has addressed much of the blackmail issue, but there's probably still a gray area for electric cars, especially if there is some proprietary software in the battery unit that is deemed critical to overall operation.
But I do think that as long as the body and major drivetrain components remain useable many cars will be worth putting a new battery in, and given the high initial cost, the mechanical simplicity of the drivetrain, and improvements in body contstruction (as well as differences in climate), that will be happening enough to support a third party industry. We have to remember, for example, that although a car may rot into the ground in 10 or 15 years up here in the muddy rust belt, the same car in Georgia or California is likely to go to the junkyard with an intact frame, with overall wear and tear that were liveable until the engine or transmission blew.