Cont: Electric Vehicles II

[novaphile]

Well, it seems some of us are in a minority, or what passes for one. I like cheap reliable little cars. But apparently, whenever the manufacturers come out with a cheap, reliable little car, people complain that it isn't fancy enough or big enough. So they either cancel it or make it bigger and fancier. Then we have to start all over again.

I've heard this explained a different way...

People buy a small new car and love it.

The next time they need to buy a new car, their needs have increased, they want to buy the same car, but need it to be bigger.

Because they have a partner, need a higher roof and baby seats for their children, higher ground clearance as you age etc.

Manufacturers responded to this by creating a new small car, and on each iteration increase its size.

That way, their customers can keep buying the 'same' car, but it changes to meet their changing need.

The Mazda 3 is probably a good example of this. I remember the original 323 as a tiny little car.

 

[bruto]

That's not true. Ford successfully sold their lowest end vehicle and stopped production and replaced it with another vehicle that didn't sell very well. They replaced volume for higher margins.

I suppose that's true. There are some very cheap little cars still around, but I'm not entirely sure the three-pointer of cheap, small and reliable is quite as well represented.

 

[acbytesla]

I suppose that's true. There are some very cheap little cars still around, but I'm not entirely sure the three-pointer of cheap, small and reliable is quite as well represented.

Most purchasing decisions come down to value propositions. In the 60s and 70s they sold a hell of a lot of tin cans that were fairly reliable. But they weren't overpriced. You could buy a Mustang or Camaro on a 24 or 36 month installment loan. Compare that to today when car loans are very often 60, 72 even 80 month loans.

 

[Dabop]

One thing that many seem to be conflating is that cheap and manual things are the same- in the example of manual windows, the major reason that they aren't common anymore is that electric windows are actually CHEAPER to make than manual windows....

(a linear actuator is actually simpler and cheaper than the relatively complex mechanism used for winding a window up manually... having restored quite a number of old cars, making a replacement by hand is a LOT of hard work...)

Just because old cars had them (because at the time the were the only option) doesn't mean they are STILL the cheapest option...

Technology has made what used to be expensive- or even impossible- cheap and commonplace....

 

[acbytesla]

One thing that many seem to be conflating is that cheap and manual things are the same- in the example of manual windows, the major reason that they aren't common anymore is that electric windows are actually CHEAPER to make than manual windows....

(a linear actuator is actually simpler and cheaper than the relatively complex mechanism used for winding a window up manually... having restored quite a number of old cars, making a replacement by hand is a LOT of hard work...)

Just because old cars had them (because at the time the were the only option) doesn't mean they are STILL the cheapest option...

Technology has made what used to be expensive- or even impossible- cheap and commonplace....

Absolutely true. Maybe.

You can actually buy the motor and mechanism to roll a windows up and down for a lot less then a manual window mechanism. I replaced those power windo parts on a 1996 Dodge Caravan a few months ago. And for giggles I checked out the price of the manual window mechanism. No kidding, the parts were 3 times as much for the manual window parts.

But I think the reason was they were so rare that they could charge a premium. Nevertheless I bought a new power window motor and mechanism for less than $50. That's cheap. Especially when you consider that was retail.

 

[bruto]

I think a lot of things like crank windows were cheap once, because they're mostly based on very basic stampings. In a factory filled with dedicated machines, once the machine is set up it's no problem to punch out a 10-inch diameter half-circle gear and that sort of thing. No exotic parts or bearings or motors. Just stamped steel, pins and maybe a few brass bushings, all pressed and riveted together. Complex parts stamped out of cheap material. But once those machines are gone, they're gone forever.

 

[The Don]

I suppose that's true. There are some very cheap little cars still around, but I'm not entirely sure the three-pointer of cheap, small and reliable is quite as well represented.

IMO cars are far more reliable these days. When I think of the routine maintenance I had to do to keep my 1981 Austin Allegro on the road with the expectation that the engine would maybe last 60,000 miles and 10 years before requiring major work and contrast that to Mrs Don's 2008 Skoda Fabia which required nothing more than annual servicing and was still running perfectly when she traded it in for an EV 14 years later. Nevermind that the bodywork was perfect whilst the Allegro had considerable amounts of filler to disguise the rust holes.

There are so many 20 or 30 year old cars on the road seemingly in daily use and looking and sounding in decent shape. I'm not sure the same was true when I was a kid.

 

[Dabop]

My Hilux hit over 450 thousand before I retired it (spun main bearing, the 2.9 was notorious for it- its still actually 'running', but you can hear it a kilometre away with the engine running lol- 'clank, clank, clank') and that was a 1999, worked hard... (regularly towing car trailers) while the 96 Corolla is still a daily driver, with over 400 thousand on the clock already, and I expect it to last probably that again- apart from regular services and a couple of timing belts, its been a great little beast... I drop it over 2000km on a road trip with zero notice or preparation, the only thing that failed in the entire trip was my back lol, getting too old for that sort of thing...

Neither has any rust whatsoever (despite the Hilux being my beach fishing ute) although both the paint is looking shabby- the white Hilux paint you have to look close to see it, the purple Corolla is (like all dark cars) VERY obvious when the clearcoat fails.... splotch city...

 

[malbui]

My old dad was always a fan of small British family cars of the late 60s and early 70s and he almost always had an Austin 1300 or a Wolseley or a Riley knocking around. There was always a level of conflict at his car clubs between the ‘everything original’ purists and those who installed stuff like modern starters so that they could reliably enjoy their cars.

On the size front, I was in the UK over Easter and borrowed the old chap’s fairly recent VW Polo. Very nice little car but not quite the tiny runabout I remember under the same badge from my childhood.

 

[jadebox]

In the 60s and 70s they sold a hell of a lot of tin cans that were fairly reliable. But they weren't overpriced. You could buy a Mustang or Camaro on a 24 or 36 month installment loan. Compare that to today when car loans are very often 60, 72 even 80 month loans.

When I think of cars from the '60s and '70s, I smell the odor of decaying seat cushions and moldy carpets. I can hear the god-awful rattling of the hard dashboards. And I recall doing tune-ups every year. Back then, my family never got more than 100,000 miles on a car before it was falling apart. Now, you can go longer than that before you need to even think about to changing the spark plugs. (Sorry for the ICEing!)

 

[Rolfe]

There was a period in the 60s and 70s when car bodywork was absolutely dire. The damn thing could rust away in five years. It got gradually better after that, but that was a really low point.

My impression is that EVs are going to last longer than ICE, fewer moving parts and things to go wrong, so I hope the bodywork is up to it.

 

[dirtywick]

in my climate generally the body and frame fail long before the engine on an ice vehicle. i’m sure that holds true on an ev as well

 

[Dabop]

There was a period in the 60s and 70s when car bodywork was absolutely dire. The damn thing could rust away in five years. It got gradually better after that, but that was a really low point.

My impression is that EVs are going to last longer than ICE, fewer moving parts and things to go wrong, so I hope the bodywork is up to it.

In Australia, the low point for bad bodywork was the 1980's- thats the era of the 'real rustbuckets' here- the 70's were reasonable, the 60's were rock solid (many are still almost rustfree here for the early 60's stuff), the 90's got better again
Even my 99 Hilux is still rust free (there some very minor surface scale underneath in places, but not a single hole anywhere), and that was regularly driven on the beaches here (salt water on the ocean) while beach fishing....

My sisters 'weekend warrior' is a 78 XC Falcon GS (351 Cleveland with the HiPo motor package) again totally rust free, in its original paint even... (its paints in better shape than either of the 20 year newer ones here lol)

 

[Rolfe]

Maybe you're right about it being the 70s rather than the 60s. In fact I think you are. It was getting better into the 80s though. I bought my first car in 1985 and it wasn't as bad as my father's had been. Mind you, it only made it to eight years old and about 85,000 miles.

 

[Dabop]

Maybe you're right about it being the 70s rather than the 60s. In fact I think you are. It was getting better into the 80s though. I bought my first car in 1985 and it wasn't as bad as my father's had been. Mind you, it only made it to eight years old and about 85,000 miles.

The 80's were the real rustbuckets here, in fact I had two Hiluxes (84 and 88) both were still running fine when I pensioned them off, both riddled with rust, where the 99 Hilux is rust free even today... (as is the 96 Corolla)
The 88, at the time only 9 years old, and had a lot of rust even then...

(funnily enough- thats the door off the 84- the bottom of the 88's door was literally just 'gone')

 

[bruto]

in my climate generally the body and frame fail long before the engine on an ice vehicle. i’m sure that holds true on an ev as well

Yes, that's likely to be the problem here in New England as well, though newer cars are doing a little better. My 12 year old Hyundai is actually only a little bit rusty, where once upon a time such vehicles would have disappeared by now. Still, the tinworm has devoured several of my vehicles well before their time. I have had a couple of Jeep Cherokees, which with their trucklike components and fantastically well made engines, were running just fine past 250 thousand miles, when unibody rot made them impractical to keep going. And my 1978 Mercedes was well over 320 thousand when a rather important rear axle mount rotted off, and ended its life. I had done numerous rust repairs over its lifetime. I gave it to a friend who needed parts for his. It purred driving up the car carrier ramp!

Given that battery life is now an element in total car life, I am sure you could make an electric car that lasts as long as its initial battery, at which point the decision on whether it warrants a new battery or a quick trip to the boneyard will be up in the air. And those of us (or our heirs, since some of us are getting a bit old) who don't mind a bit of shabbiness, will be in luck because parts will be cheap.

 

[Rolfe]

I wonder whether the time will come where replacement batteries are available quite cheaply, for popular models at least, and might actually be better than the originals, giving more range and faster charging.

 

[The Don]

I wonder whether the time will come where replacement batteries are available quite cheaply, for popular models at least, and might actually be better than the originals, giving more range and faster charging.

That's already the case for early models of the Nissan Leaf

 

[Rolfe]

Yes, that's the example I was thinking of. However, the early Leaf batteries were so poor that there are plenty of these cars around in excellent condition but with a range of about 60 miles on a good day. These are obvious candidates for an affordable replacement. I'm not sure whether more modern cars will have a mismatch between the durability of the battery and the durability of the bodywork that would make wholesale battrty replacement a common requirement.

 

[bruto]

I would expect the replacement battery industry to be a good bet for growth. One of the things I noticed in looking around at some coming vehicles, and especially at another little electric truck whose name I forget, is that many, though they use various configurations and packagings and whatnot, are using the same basic cells. I would expect a third-party battery industry to develop as the need for more batteries grows, as it has for other battery-using things like power tools.