Transwomen are not Women - Part 15

[acbytesla]

Sigh. If I post this again I'll probably be banned for spamming.

The Rorschach Test

The release of some early 2021 census statistics relating to gender was greeted with glee and elation by Nancy Kelley, CEO of Stonewall in the UK. Vindication at last! (Kelley declined to mention t…

wingsoverscotland.com

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That doesn't say what you think it does. It doesn't reflect that Trans-women are 5 times more likely to commit sexual offences. It reflects that 5 times as many Transwomen have been incarcerated for said offences. Huge difference. And what evidence do you have that has any correlation to the population as a whole?

 

[theprestige]

You got me. I practiced a bit of hyperbole. Now where's your credible evidence for assaults committed by Trans individuals in public restrooms. After all, that is your argument isn't it?

For me, it kinda depends on how "transwoman" is defined.

As long as your definition is "any man who claims entitlement to women's spaces just because he says he wants it", then we have plenty of evidence of sexual harassment and violence against women from transwomen in women's spaces.

Evidence with which you have been repeatedly provided, and repeatedly ignored.

 

[Myriad]

That doesn't say what you think it does.

Yes it does. Look again.

It doesn't reflect that Trans-women are 5 times more likely to commit sexual offences.

Yes it does. Look again.

It reflects that 5 times as many Transwomen have been incarcerated for said offences.

No, it doesn't say that (but if it did, that would be even worse given how small the trans women population is compared to the whole.)

It says 5 times as many trans women relative to the total trans women population, than women relative to the total women population, are serving time for sex offenses.

Huge difference. And what evidence do you have that has any correlation to the population as a whole?

The stats are based on the population as a whole (of England and Wales).

 

[Rolfe]

Unless sex offender trans-identifying men are getting caught in vastly larger numbers than other men, these statistics say exactly what they appear to say. (And given the number of times I've read an article about the sentencing of a trans sex offender where the judge has decided to let him off prison because of his difficult mental struggle with his gender, if there's any skew it's more likely to be the other way.)

 

[Rolfe]

That doesn't say what you think it does. It doesn't reflect that Trans-women are 5 times more likely to commit sexual offences. It reflects that 5 times as many Transwomen have been incarcerated for said offences. Huge difference. And what evidence do you have that has any correlation to the population as a whole?

It says there are 92 trans-identifying men in prison for sexual offences, compared to 11,660 other men. Where do you think the "five times" thing comes from, for crying out loud? From their relative prevalence in "the population as a whole", that's where.

 

[acbytesla]

Delete

 

[acbytesla]

It says there are 92 trans-identifying men in prison for sexual offences, compared to 11,660 other men. Where do you think the "five times" thing comes from, for crying out loud? From their relative prevalence in "the population as a whole", that's where.

No, statistics don't work that way. We incarcerate significantly more people of color than Caucasians. Does that necessarily mean that that people of color commit more crime? Or is it possible that people of color may be more likely to be arrested, tried, convicted and incarcerated?

 

[Manger Douse]

No, statistics don't work that way. We incarcerate significantly more people of color than Caucasians. Does that necessarily mean that that people of color commit more crime? Or is it possible that people of color may be more likely to be arrested, tried, convicted and incarcerated?

British courts aren't conducted in secret yet the incredibly loud and uniquely rapey trans rights movement seems silent on these poor dears unjustly prisoned. Do you have an example of these transwomen who were incorrectly incarcerated?

 

[Ziggurat]

No, statistics don't work that way. We incarcerate significantly more people of color than Caucasians.

No we don't. We incarcerate minorities at higher rates, not higher totals.

Does that necessarily mean that that people of color commit more crime?

Not necessarily, but in fact they do. We know this from reported victimization. People who are the victims of crimes report minorities as the offenders at a higher rate. And that's not because of racism, because the victims are primarily minorities. Which makes sense, because criminals mostly commit crimes within their own communities.

Or is it possible that people of color may be more likely to be arrested, tried, convicted and incarcerated?

Nope. That's not the reason.

 

[acbytesla]

British courts aren't conducted in secret yet the incredibly loud and uniquely rapey trans rights movement seems silent on these poor dears unjustly prisoned. Do you have an example of these transwomen who were incorrectly incarcerated?

Anecdotes are not persuasive. And my point was to show that making conclusions from the statistics can be challenging. A higher percentage of sexual crimes out of total cimes that a population is incarcerated for does not mean that population is more inclined to commit sexual crimes than another population of inmates that were ncarcerated for other crimes.

 

[Ziggurat]

No, statistics don't work that way. We incarcerate significantly more people of color than Caucasians. Does that necessarily mean that that people of color commit more crime? Or is it possible that people of color may be more likely to be arrested, tried, convicted and incarcerated?

It's also amazing how often police know beforehand that the suspect they're pinning a sex crime on is trans but will only come out after prosecution.

 

[acbytesla]

No we don't. We incarcerate minorities at higher rates, not higher totals.

Fair enough. That is what I meant.

"Black Americans making up around 13% of the total population but roughly 37% of the prison population; this means that people of color are disproportionately represented in the prison system.
Key points:
Black Americans:
Compose around 13% of the general population but represent approximately 37% of the prison population.
Hispanic Americans:
Also show a significant disparity, making up a larger percentage of the prison population than their share in the overall population."

 

[acbytesla]

No we don't. We incarcerate minorities at higher rates, not higher totals.

Not necessarily, but in fact they do. We know this from reported victimization. People who are the victims of crimes report minorities as the offenders at a higher rate. And that's not because of racism, because the victims are primarily minorities. Which makes sense, because criminals mostly commit crimes within their own communities.

Nope. That's not the reason.

Yes it is.

 

[Manger Douse]

Anecdotes are not persuasive. And my point was to show that making conclusions from the statistics can be challenging. A higher percentage of sexual crimes out of total cimes that a population is incarcerated for does not mean that population is more inclined to commit sexual crimes than another population of inmates that were ncarcerated for other crimes.

"I can give no examples of a transwoman being unjustly incarcerated"

 

[acbytesla]

"I can give no examples of a transwoman being unjustly incarcerated"

That wasn't the point.

I have no idea of the fairness of their arrests, charges, convictions or incarcerations. Only that such factors might significantly affect the statistics.

And let's say that a higher percentage of crimes that trans people are rightfully charged, convicted and incarcerated are sexual, what does that mean? What is included under that label? Does that mean that Trans people are less likely to commit other types of crimes?

As Mark Twain so eloquently said, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

[Manger Douse]

That wasn't the point.

I have no idea of the fairness of their arrests, charges, convictions or incarcerations. Only that such factors might significantly affect the statistics.

And let's say that a higher percentage of crimes that trans people are rightfully charged, convicted and incarcerated are sexual, what does that mean? What is included under that label? Does that mean that Trans people are less likely to commit other types of crimes?

As Mark Twain so eloquently said, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

Your whole argument rests on the unfairness of arrests, charges, convictions or incarcerations of transwomen and how that might significantly affect the statistics. You have no evidence that this has ever happened.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

It has to do with the relative risk of sexual assault from cis men vs trans women. Did you forget you made a claim about that?

You're kidding, right?

Men who object to the idea of private safe spaces for women might not necessarily be potential predators themselves, but they are nonetheless part of the problem, in that they risk enabling those that are.

I support the idea of private spaces for everybody, regardless of sexual orientation. Why can't we have that?

 

[Ziggurat]

lack Americans making up around 13% of the total population but roughly 37% of the prison population;

Because they do, in fact, commit crimes at a higher rate. Not because of racism. You seem to have ignored that part.

 

[Ziggurat]

I support the idea of private spaces for everybody, regardless of sexual orientation. Why can't we have that?

For one, cost. Retrofitting existing buildings to have only single occupancy bathrooms can be prohibitively expensive. For another, as multiple women have pointed out many times, sometimes women need the assistance of other women in the bathroom, and single occupancy bathrooms prevents that from working effectively. Read the thread for examples given. Lastly of course, the TRAs don't want that either. Because it isn't really about protecting trans women from other men, though that is the normal excuse offered.

 

[smartcooky]

Well, we know the figures have been crunched more than once, and always with about the same result. Some people have suggested that as many as half the "transwomen" in prison are suffering from "prison-onset gender dysphoria" simply to get a cushier time in the women's estate. That's as maybe, but even if you grant that, it still leaves genuinely trans-identifying males two and a half times more of a risk than other males.

Furthermore, those prisoners with "prison-onset gender dysphoria" (lol by the way) are the type mist lonely to use SelfID to their criminal advantage.
abbytesla Keepa asking for proof that-

That doesn't say what you think it does. It doesn't reflect that Trans-women are 5 times more likely to commit sexual offences. It reflects that 5 times as many Transwomen have been incarcerated for said offences. Huge difference. And what evidence do you have that has any correlation to the population as a whole?

Utter poppycock... It says EXACTLY what everyone, but you, knows it does. You just won't want it mean what it means because it destroys your worldview.
But you know, just keep up with your handwaving... no-one here agrees with you.