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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 3

Sherkeu said:
Yeah... like actual lawfare and jailing your opponents.
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Trump pretty openly admitted to some of his serious crimes and was very clearly guilty of others. Legal matters involving him have been slow-walked like crazy. Has Trump spent any time at all in jail?

Sure, a bunch of people around him have been jailed, some for crimes that he played a starring role in. The trials were all above board, though, and Democrats have gone absurdly far out of their way to try to avoid even an appearance of wrongdoing.

Meanwhile, Trump's promised to use the power of the Presidency to directly go after his political opponents... and the guardrails to stop him from doing so are barely there at all now.

Sherkeu said:
Making false accusations of Russian collusion.
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Still no acknowledgement of the situation that actually occurred? At the least, Trump tried to make that happen repeatedly, his campaign data was fed to Russians, and Russia did take action to help him win. "Collusion" (let's skip over the actual terms that should be invoked) couldn't be proven to very high standards of doubt, though, yes, after notable obstruction of justice and an investigation that didn't delve into the more likely directions of violations of law at hand.

Sherkeu said:
Spying on a campaign, funded by the opposition, promoted by a corrupt media with a false FISA warrant with known lies- signed off by fbi directors.. Actually censoring the media from 'misinformation' that ends up being completely true. Like that?
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A crappy thing happens to a guy that you think is on your side and you immediately play the victim with seemingly no care about the larger picture and who has been more likely to be affected by the problems that such revealed. Okay.

Sherkeu said:
I don't need more evidenceof those factual real life things that already happend- provable indisputed facts vs the fear of future actions by conservatives repeated constantly but that didn't happen.
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Well, a declaration of a closed mind is unsurprising, given your selection of examples.
 
angrysoba said:
Selzer is someone who long-term listeners of 538 may have heard of. She has been talked about on their podcast pretty often over the years, and Silver considers her to be one of the best, if not the actual best, pollster. She has a track record to back that up, it seems:
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Perhaps we need to re-visit this one.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I’ll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win
Trump handily won Iowa for a third time, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by 14 percentage points with more than 90% of the vote counted ― a sharp contrast to Saturday's Iowa Poll that had Harris leading by 3 points.
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The final poll showed Harris leading Trump, 47% to 44%. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, meaning Harris' lead was within the margin of error.
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So it was off by 17 percentage points (maybe 16 after all the votes are tallied) which is well outside of the nominal margin of error.
 
angrysoba said:
Ha ha, yeah. Definitely.
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angrysoba said:
Interesting news from Silver. He has been saying in the past that the polls seem to be herding, but he looks favourably on two pollsters in particular, NYT/Siena polls and Ann Selzer.

Anyway, Ann Selzer has a new Iowa poll out which shows a surprisingly large shift towards Harris, even making her the favourite. Of course, Silver warns that the margin of error is large and the Dems lost Iowa by 9 points last time round, but it could be a good sign for other close races.

www.natesilver.net

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net
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jt512 said:
You know why most shocking findings are shocking?

They're wrong.
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Y'all could have just listened to me in the first place. ;)
 
jt512 said:
Y'all could have just listened to me in the first place. ;)
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Yeah, I know. I didn't consider it to be some kind of final verdict. I only found it interesting. It didn't move the polling needle overall, as far as I know. It was still a coin toss even then.

For the most part the polls were about right.

Maybe the betting markets were genuinely accurate (as opposed to being randomly accurate) in the end.
 
RFK says

"President Trump has asked me to do three things:
1. Clean up the corruption in our government health agencies.
2. Return those agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science.
3. Make America Healthy Again by ending the chronic disease epidemic."
 
Aridas said:
Trump pretty openly admitted to some of his serious crimes and was very clearly guilty of others. Legal matters involving him have been slow-walked like crazy. Has Trump spent any time at all in jail?

Sure, a bunch of people around him have been jailed, some for crimes that he played a starring role in. The trials were all above board, though, and Democrats have gone absurdly far out of their way to try to avoid even an appearance of wrongdoing.

Meanwhile, Trump's promised to use the power of the Presidency to directly go after his political opponents... and the guardrails to stop him from doing so are barely there at all now.



Still no acknowledgement of the situation that actually occurred? At the least, Trump tried to make that happen repeatedly, his campaign data was fed to Russians, and Russia did take action to help him win. "Collusion" (let's skip over the actual terms that should be invoked) couldn't be proven to very high standards of doubt, though, yes, after notable obstruction of justice and an investigation that didn't delve into the more likely directions of violations of law at hand.



A crappy thing happens to a guy that you think is on your side and you immediately play the victim with seemingly no care about the larger picture and who has been more likely to be affected by the problems that such revealed. Okay.


Well, a declaration of a closed mind is unsurprising, given your selection of examples.
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Thank you for explaining the facts to a maga weirdo who's more interested in reciting lies and other maga rhetoric before running off like a scared sheep.


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Listening to Morning Joe. It's less painful than night time MSNBC shows.

Trump spoke the language of the white working classes. Without saying much on them, Harris was dumped with every possible woke label. In the middle of football ganes on TV, Wisconsin and Michigan, they ran ads scaring white males about trans gender surgery. You can't do worse than getting guys to think about penises being cut off.

And even that is kind of the result of the fast paced media bombardment of voters. They are sick of elections, sick of polticians. I have not got much support for my idea, but here goes. In this Internet age, we have completely lost patience. Many voters grew up with internet in most of their life. The result will be that we will have a string of presidents seving ONE TERM. Not two consecutive terms.
 
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Andy_Ross said:
RFK says

2. Return those agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science.
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I literally facepalmed.

Edit I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I remember the catastrophic mismanagemnt of covid and fear another million dead Americans.
If they're really going after vaccines, it's not just going to kill trumpkins at a rate of 7:1, either. Lots of fascist dying was the silver lining last time.
 
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Andy_Ross said:
RFK says

"President Trump has asked me to do three things:
1. Clean up the corruption in our government health agencies.
2. Return those agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science.
3. Make America Healthy Again by ending the chronic disease epidemic."
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Fascism. Probably worse than Hitler.
 
Tero said:
Trump spoke the language of the white working classes.
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Yes. He told them what they wanted to hear, regardless of whether it was true or not. Standard politician nonsense save for the volume. Hopefully he won't remember all the bull ◊◊◊◊ he shovelled, much less try to implement it.
 
[OT mansplaining]
Tero said:
You can't do worse than getting guys to think about penises being cut off.
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This feels a lot like a WELL ACKSCHUALLY-- reply, and I suppose a lot of people know this already, but for the benefit of the Dump voters, if nothing else, who have probably been told that it gets chopped off and eaten by in Satanic rituals by Haitian refugees from Venezuela, or something:

Gender surgery doesn't even involve chopping it off. They just basically turn it back into a clitoris.
I can imagine a lot of people not knowing that, but I can also perfectly well picture the far-right scaring the poorly educated by the evil commies coming for your American children's penises to turn everyone into beta girls with green hair and pronouns. Sounds just like their MO.
[/mansplaining]
 
Resume said:
Yes. He told them what they wanted to hear, regardless of whether it was true or not. Standard politician nonsense save for the volume. Hopefully he won't remember all the bull ◊◊◊◊ he shovelled, much less try to implement it.
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That was the pattern in his first Presidency, to promise all kinds of things "in two weeks" but to actually follow through on very few things.

IMO a large part of this is due to Republicans in general, and Trump in particular, having little or no interest in governing except where it enriches them personally.

Slogans are easy, government is hard and a lot of people are very lazy.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
[OT mansplaining]

This feels a lot like a WELL ACKSCHUALLY-- reply, and I suppose a lot of people know this already, but for the benefit of the Dump voters, if nothing else, who have probably been told that it gets chopped off and eaten by in Satanic rituals by Haitian refugees from Venezuela, or something:

Gender surgery doesn't even involve chopping it off. They just basically turn it back into a clitoris.
I can imagine a lot of people not knowing that, but I can also perfectly well picture the far-right scaring the poorly educated by the evil commies coming for your American children's penises to turn everyone into beta girls with green hair and pronouns. Sounds just like their MO.
[/mansplaining]
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I doubt that many MAGA folk know what a clitoris is.
 
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