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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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Segnosaur said:
This is not a good sign for the Trump campaign:

Newsweek
Donald Trump's campaign is said to be concerned about private polling in Ohio....
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Another similar issue has popped up for Trump in Florida...

From: Florida Phoenix (a local newspaper)
A new poll...of more than 1,000 Florida registered likely voters shows that Democrat Kamala Harris is within striking distance of Donald Trump in the state. The former president leads the vice president by just three percentage points, 50%-47%, in the survey.

Similar to the Ohio situation... a state that was once a swing state but has shifted to the republicans now shows Harris as a potential threat at winning the state.

Like Ohio, I figure the state will probably still go for Trump, but its still not good news if they see a need to use campaign resources to shore up the vote in what should be a reliably red state.

ETA: It should also be noted that there will also be a referendum on abortion added to the Florida ballot. That is likely going to increase the number of young women voters, a group that is more likely to support the democrats.
 
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Segnosaur said:
Another similar issue has popped up for Trump in Florida...

From: Florida Phoenix (a local newspaper)
A new poll...of more than 1,000 Florida registered likely voters shows that Democrat Kamala Harris is within striking distance of Donald Trump in the state. The former president leads the vice president by just three percentage points, 50%-47%, in the survey.

Similar to the Ohio situation... a state that was once a swing state but has shifted to the republicans now shows Harris as a potential threat at winning the state.

Like Ohio, I figure the state will probably still go for Trump, but its still not good news if they see a need to use campaign resources to shore up the vote in what should be a reliably red state.

ETA: It should also be noted that there will also be a referendum on abortion added to the Florida ballot. That is likely going to increase the number of young women voters, a group that is more likely to support the democrats.
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It has to be too good to be true to think that FL would be in play. That would be wild.

RE the abortion referendum:
It also gets 56% support, with 29% opposing and 23% saying that they’re not sure how they’ll vote.
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Lets leave it as an exercise for the reader to glean the implications of that data.
 
Single polls this far out don't mean anything. Add them to the aggeregate and see if a trend appears.

and Florida is weird. despite its reputation as a purple state, its state elections tend to swing right. But, its referendums and such tend to swing left.
 
Donal said:
and Florida is weird. despite its reputation as a purple state, its state elections tend to swing right. But, its referendums and such tend to swing left.
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I've talked about how Florida is weird in the past.

In most states politics is dominated by dense urban cores that are overwhelmingly blue sitting in a sea of red rural areas.

Austin, Texas is as blue as anywhere you can find and huge swaths of rural Northern California are as red as anywhere in the American South.

Blue states are just states with mostly urban populations, Red states with most rural, and Swing States with either a balance of the two and/or REALLY big suburban populations.

Florida is weird.

1. It has MASSIVE retirement communities which function as defacto Red Cities, something you don't really find anywhere else.

2. A large portion of its liberal leaning people are Hispanic which are often immigrants or one or two generations removed from leaving countries which very, very, very bad policies which are generally thought of as "leftist." Also in case you haven't noticed the Hispanic community is kinda really big on Jesus and abortion doesn't sit well with people who have as many Virgin Mary statues in their house as light sockets. Whenever a liberal says anything that sounds even a little like "Ya know life in Cuba under Castro wasn't that bad..." they lose a lot of Florida's vital "Name that ends in -ez" demographic.

Florida might be the last big place where "Liberal/Democratic" and "Conservative/Republican" are 100% purely synonymous a demographic like "Conservative Democrat" or "Liberal Republican" might still honestly exist. (Note I say this simply as a matter of objective fact, not to incite an argument about whether or not in this day an age that political philosophy makes sense.)

As an on the ground Democratic voter for the last 15 years or so in the state I've gotten the impression that the Democrats have largely written off Florida. DeSantis ran a juggernaut campaign last against very little it seemed serious opposition. We did get a Democratic Mayor here in Jacksonville, the largest city in the US with a Republican Mayor up until that point.
 
The other thing I've been thinking about and I don't think this is a big demographic nationally and by no means the biggest factor in any of this, but I do sometimes wonder if "I'm waiting to see who the clear frontrunner is because I want to vote for whoever is going to win because I want to be on the winning side" is a small but not meaningless factor in there SOMEWHERE especially when we hear talking heads and pundits try to talk about things like "momentum."
 
JoeMorgue said:
I've talked about how Florida is weird in the past.

In most states politics is dominated by dense urban cores that are overwhelmingly blue sitting in a sea of red rural areas.

Austin, Texas is as blue as anywhere you can find and huge swaths of rural Northern California are as red as anywhere in the American South.

Blue states are just states with mostly urban populations, Red states with most rural, and Swing States with either a balance of the two and/or REALLY big suburban populations.

Florida is weird.
1. It has MASSIVE retirement communities which function as defacto Red Cities, something you don't really find anywhere else.

2. A large portion of its liberal leaning people are Hispanic which are often immigrants or one or two generations removed from leaving countries which very, very, very bad policies which are generally thought of as "leftist." Also in case you haven't noticed the Hispanic community is kinda really big on Jesus and abortion doesn't sit well with people who have as many Virgin Mary statues in their house as light sockets. Whenever a liberal says anything that sounds even a little like "Ya know life in Cuba under Castro wasn't that bad..." they lose a lot of Florida's vital "Name that ends in -ez" demographic.

Florida might be the last big place where "Liberal/Democratic" and "Conservative/Republican" are 100% purely synonymous a demographic like "Conservative Democrat" or "Liberal Republican" might still honestly exist. (Note I say this simply as a matter of objective fact, not to incite an argument about whether or not in this day an age that political philosophy makes sense.)

As an on the ground Democratic voter for the last 15 years or so in the state I've gotten the impression that the Democrats have largely written off Florida. DeSantis ran a juggernaut campaign last against very little it seemed serious opposition. We did get a Democratic Mayor here in Jacksonville, the largest city in the US with a Republican Mayor up until that point.
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This is spot on about everything. Florida is weird. It went Blue in 96, 2008 and 2012. And the 2000 election was stolen in the State of Florida. It wouldn't be easy, but the Dems could swing the state if they focus almost everything there on combining sensible immigration restrictions, reproductive health and SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL SECURITY and SOCIAL SECURITY. Did I forget to mention Social Security?
 
JoeMorgue said:
I've talked about how Florida is weird in the past.

In most states politics is dominated by dense urban cores that are overwhelmingly blue sitting in a sea of red rural areas.

Austin, Texas is as blue as anywhere you can find and huge swaths of rural Northern California are as red as anywhere in the American South.

Blue states are just states with mostly urban populations, Red states with most rural, and Swing States with either a balance of the two and/or REALLY big suburban populations.

Florida is weird.

1. It has MASSIVE retirement communities which function as defacto Red Cities, something you don't really find anywhere else.

2. A large portion of its liberal leaning people are Hispanic which are often immigrants or one or two generations removed from leaving countries which very, very, very bad policies which are generally thought of as "leftist." Also in case you haven't noticed the Hispanic community is kinda really big on Jesus and abortion doesn't sit well with people who have as many Virgin Mary statues in their house as light sockets. Whenever a liberal says anything that sounds even a little like "Ya know life in Cuba under Castro wasn't that bad..." they lose a lot of Florida's vital "Name that ends in -ez" demographic.

Florida might be the last big place where "Liberal/Democratic" and "Conservative/Republican" are 100% purely synonymous a demographic like "Conservative Democrat" or "Liberal Republican" might still honestly exist. (Note I say this simply as a matter of objective fact, not to incite an argument about whether or not in this day an age that political philosophy makes sense.)

As an on the ground Democratic voter for the last 15 years or so in the state I've gotten the impression that the Democrats have largely written off Florida. DeSantis ran a juggernaut campaign last against very little it seemed serious opposition. We did get a Democratic Mayor here in Jacksonville, the largest city in the US with a Republican Mayor up until that point.
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You forget too that Florida is the epicentre of the repugs' voter disenfranchisement efforts. Gore won Florida in 2000 until the Supreme Court stopped people counting the votes the state government were trying to stuff down the back of the sofa and Brave Sir RonDa barely won his first gubnatorial election even with a much bigger vote steal.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
You forget too that Florida is the epicentre of the repugs' voter disenfranchisement efforts. Gore won Florida in 2000 until the Supreme Court stopped people counting the votes the state government were trying to stuff down the back of the sofa and Brave Sir RonDa barely won his first gubnatorial election even with a much bigger vote steal.
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For last couple of decades Republicans can be STACKING State level legislatures while Democrats have, seemingly, always treated state level politics as somewhat beneath them but the voting processes are all controlled at the state level and this give Republicans huge power even if they were content with just wielding it legally.

Among other things long term Democrats have to do is start winning back state level power.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
You forget too that Florida is the epicentre of the repugs' voter disenfranchisement efforts. Gore won Florida in 2000 until the Supreme Court stopped people counting the votes the state government were trying to stuff down the back of the sofa and Brave Sir RonDa barely won his first gubnatorial election even with a much bigger vote steal.
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And, as was mentioned in the Roe v. Wade thread for various reasons, Florida approved former felons regaining the right to vote via referendum and the state legislature said "Nope, we're going to put major restrictions on it so they can't actually vote."
 
Armitage72 said:
And, as was mentioned in the Roe v. Wade thread for various reasons, Florida approved former felons regaining the right to vote via referendum and the state legislature said "Nope, we're going to put major restrictions on it so they can't actually vote."
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From my personal view, having to pay your court fines and fees off in order to vote doesn't seem like a burden. To get off of supervised probation I had to pay all my restitution, fines, and fees. Ironically I had to pay them money per month to be on probation and that's what held me up.

BUT the way Florida handled it is what sucks. They go out of their way to keep the felons from getting any information about the fines and fees they have to pay off. They make it difficult for no reason other than voter suppression. So I like the concept, hate the implementation.
 
plague311 said:
From my personal view, having to pay your court fines and fees off in order to vote doesn't seem like a burden. To get off of supervised probation I had to pay all my restitution, fines, and fees. Ironically I had to pay them money per month to be on probation and that's what held me up.

BUT the way Florida handled it is what sucks. They go out of their way to keep the felons from getting any information about the fines and fees they have to pay off. They make it difficult for no reason other than voter suppression. So I like the concept, hate the implementation.
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Yeah, but not for voting. The reason for this is simply racist voter suppression. There is a huge racial imbalance in how laws and punishment is applied nationwide and it is worse in the South.
 
acbytesla said:
Yeah, but not for voting. The reason for this is simply racist voter suppression. There is a huge racial imbalance in how laws and punishment is applied nationwide and it is worse in the South.
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Maybe, I'm not arguing either way. I do know that if you're a convicted felon and you're on probation you don't get any rights. They're stripped from you. If your probation officer wants to come in and search your house when they get a wild hair, that's precisely what they're going to do.

I am a huge advocate of felons being able to vote, but I also feel they have to pay the entirety of their debt to society. Along with that they should be accommodated to get that done, not held back at every turn.
 
TofuFighter said:
Postscript (PS)
post postscript (PPS)
post post postscript (PPPS)
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Oh.

Can you do anything to fix Apple's spell checker?



PS: What does the latest polls show?


The Hill 2024 Presidential Election Polling

attachment.php



Hm. That's odd. This gauge looks stuck. Tap. Tap. Not moving. Let's restart this thing.


The Hill 2024 Presidential Election Polling

attachment.php


So Trump doesn't need to out run the bear, he just needs to out run RFK.


Would it be better if he brought RFK on stage to debate Pamala Harris in September?

Or does he need to invite RFK and the Libertarian Party candidate, Chase Oliver, for a separate debate on Fox News?

In either case he need to pick up a few percent from these two.
 

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plague311 said:
Maybe, I'm not arguing either way. I do know that if you're a convicted felon and you're on probation you don't get any rights. They're stripped from you. If your probation officer wants to come in and search your house when they get a wild hair, that's precisely what they're going to do.

I am a huge advocate of felons being able to vote, but I also feel they have to pay the entirety of their debt to society. Along with that they should be accommodated to get that done, not held back at every turn.
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That's only half true. If you're on probation, you are kind of considered a prisoner who has been granted privileges. You may be searched, even without cause. You must respond to any demand from the state just as anyone still in prison. But you do have rights. As do people still in prison. You have the right to due process. You can own property and you can not be deprived of it. BTW, anti felon voting laws owe their existence to post Civil War and Jim Crow laws.

I'm not only in favor of allowing felons, but allowing prisoners to vote.
 
This was posted on Xitter this week. I hadn't paid any attention to this account but apparently this kind of post is s.o.p.

picture.php
 
Mmm. Apparently, a bunch of internal documents from the Trump campaign were leaked to multiple media outlets. Apparently, there's a bit of a deal being made about how they're not being printed and how they're not releasing details.

While I generally don't have much of a problem with this handling, it is rather hard not to compare and contrast things to the Hillary campaign's emails, where a bunch of media outlets worked to make a big deal out of printing stories on blatantly illegally gained material. I can't help but presume that this decision making likely has less to do with principle than the overtly unprincipled and politically motivated right wing media's pressure.
 
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