theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
My employer probably has more people out today with "quiet quitting" than with covid. By several orders of magnitude.
How do we know a pandemic's over?
- Thread starter Chanakya
- Start date
Gentle reminder:
A pandemic is out of control if positivity rate is more than 5% for 2 weeks in a row.
Mexico50%
Madrid43.2%
Antonio Caramia (X, June 8, 2024)
Also too few tests being done.
That was because Dream was imprisoned.
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...
Salon has more about the Swifties (see post 910):
More from Salon:
"Not the flu": CDC's change in COVID guidance could misrepresent risks of virus, experts warn (Salon, March 6, 2024)
Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain (Salon, March 12, 2024)
Why COVID patients who could most benefit from Paxlovid still aren’t getting it (Salon, March 13, 2024)
Salon has more about the Swifties (see post 910):
More from Salon:
"Not the flu": CDC's change in COVID guidance could misrepresent risks of virus, experts warn (Salon, March 6, 2024)
Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain (Salon, March 12, 2024)
Why COVID patients who could most benefit from Paxlovid still aren’t getting it (Salon, March 13, 2024)
Spain
Continued from post 922:
I don't know about the should-only-include-people-over-60-years-old idea. There are currently very few C19 hospitalizations in Denmark, and the positivity rate is only 3.5%. The percentages of new C19 hospitalizations are:
Age
12-15: 4%
20-39: 7%
40-64: 7%
65-79: 48%
80+: 33%
Covid-19 - Danmark (region) - opdateres her onsdage kl. 14
Continued from post 922:
See graph of Incidencia de casos sospechosos de infección por SARS-CoV-2 por semana y ámbito de asistencia. Temporadas 2022-2023 y 2023-2024 on page 7 or in the tweet.
Of the gene-sequenced cases, more than 50% are of the KP.3 subvariant.
I don't know about the should-only-include-people-over-60-years-old idea. There are currently very few C19 hospitalizations in Denmark, and the positivity rate is only 3.5%. The percentages of new C19 hospitalizations are:
Age
12-15: 4%
20-39: 7%
40-64: 7%
65-79: 48%
80+: 33%
Covid-19 - Danmark (region) - opdateres her onsdage kl. 14
San Diego revisited
Dec 10, 2023:
On the same webpage, there is also this:
I hope that this makes it clear that COVID-19 killed more people in all age groups except for one baby/toddler killed by the flu.
Besides, COVID-19 kills all year round, not just in the flu season. However, this doesn't mean that hospitals were more 'maxed out' by flu than by C19. See figures 3 and 4, COVID-19 and Influenza-Positive Hospitalized Patients and COVID-19 and Influenza-Positive ICU Patients.
In fact, the peaks of C19 and the flu coincided in late-December - early-January.
And in addition to that, there was a minor C19 wave in late-September, which was higher than the peak of flu in December-January.
Dec 10, 2023:
On the same webpage, there is also this:
I hope that this makes it clear that COVID-19 killed more people in all age groups except for one baby/toddler killed by the flu.
Besides, COVID-19 kills all year round, not just in the flu season. However, this doesn't mean that hospitals were more 'maxed out' by flu than by C19. See figures 3 and 4, COVID-19 and Influenza-Positive Hospitalized Patients and COVID-19 and Influenza-Positive ICU Patients.
In fact, the peaks of C19 and the flu coincided in late-December - early-January.
And in addition to that, there was a minor C19 wave in late-September, which was higher than the peak of flu in December-January.
marting
Illuminator
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2003
- Messages
- 4,280
While technically true, it suggests C19 is killing almost everyone, except perhaps babies, more than the flu by ignoring the fact that in the age group 18 to 49 the number of C19 deaths were only one greater than flu deaths. It also ignores the fact that the flu season was well below average with 55 deaths and only a few months to go in the Flu season which will yield only one or two more deaths. For example the 2019/2020 Flu season resulted in 108 deaths. The fact that we had as many Flu deaths as C19 deaths in those under 50 strongly suggests, for a normal Flu season, C19 mortality would be less than that for the Flu for those under 50. Completely different story for those over 50. They would be comparatively hard hit even in an above average Flu season.
It is not just technically true. It is actually true, and I don't ignore anything. On the contrary, instead of allegedly "ignoring the fact that in the age group 18 to 49 the number of C19 deaths were only one greater than flu deaths," I highlighted that fact and many others!
You ignore the fact that your prediction was as far off the mark as The Atheist's predictions usually are. It is conspicuous that the flu still is nothing like COVID-19.
You should consider that the flu has bad years. 2023-24 was a rather 'good' C19 year in comparison to previous years, and yet the death toll surpassed that of the flu.
Did you notice the death toll in the age group 50-64-year-olds? Or did you just ignore it?
You need to acknowledge that COVID-19 is still several times worse than the flu, which didn't "catch up with Covid in the next few weeks" as it was supposed to do according to your predictions.
Do I have to make it even clearer than this?!
There is a pandemic. An actual pandemic. Covid isn't over, no matter how much you wish it were.
You ignore the fact that your prediction was as far off the mark as The Atheist's predictions usually are. It is conspicuous that the flu still is nothing like COVID-19.
You should consider that the flu has bad years. 2023-24 was a rather 'good' C19 year in comparison to previous years, and yet the death toll surpassed that of the flu.
Did you notice the death toll in the age group 50-64-year-olds? Or did you just ignore it?
You need to acknowledge that COVID-19 is still several times worse than the flu, which didn't "catch up with Covid in the next few weeks" as it was supposed to do according to your predictions.
Do I have to make it even clearer than this?!
There is a pandemic. An actual pandemic. Covid isn't over, no matter how much you wish it were.
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KP.3 in Portugal - and in the USA
The surge in Span (see post 928) seems to have spread to Portugal:
USA
See graphics and other data in the tweets.
The surge in Span (see post 928) seems to have spread to Portugal:
Relatório de situação sobre a diversidade genética do SARS-CoV-2 em Portugal. Linhagem recombinante XBB com apenas uma sequência nas semanas 19/2024 a 22/2024. Sublinhagem BA.2.86 com frequência relativa de 98,3%.
Saiba maishttps://insa.min-saude.pt/relatorio...oronavirus-sars-cov-2-em-portugal-11-06-2024/
Instituto Ricardo Jorge (X, June 11, 2024)
Puzzled by Q493E's rise in the KP.3 variant of SARS-CoV-2? Epistasis to the rescue! We performed human ACE2 binding assays on all combinations of L455S, F456L, and Q493E in the BA.2.86 background. The deleterious effect of Q493E is reversed on the background of L455S+F456L
We have performed mutational surveys of many SARS-CoV-2 variants up until BA.2.86 (not yet published... #newPI life), and Q493E has always been deleterious to human ACE2 binding, incurring up a ~ten-fold loss of binding affinity: https://tstarrlab.github.io/SARS-CoV-2-RBD_DMS_Omicron-XBB-BQ/RBD-heatmaps/
However, this mutation is rising in frequency within the BA.2.86-derived KP.3 subvariant, which might appear puzzling
By measuring Q493E in combination with co-occurring L455S and F456L mutations, we can see that its affinity decreasing effect is reversed in the full KP.3 constellation -- this can be seen in the reversal of the direction of the slope of the orange lines in the plot below
Tyler Starr (X, June 11, 2024)
USA
2) New York City’s COVID cases are also increasing, as noted by @emmagf. June is not normal cold and flu season at all. This shows that this KP3 surging despite non-flu season means it’s a troublemaker.
3) Hawaii’s ERs also have gotten slammed hard by an off-season COVID surge. This isn’t normal at all for June. This is why we need to be on alert.
4) Plus SF too. Hospitalsnot as crazy as Hawaii, but SF has decent vaccination rates. I worry where it will go next.
5) In the U.S., the largest and fastest surging new variant is KP3. It’ll be dominant very soon. KP3 is highly evasive against past immunity. I’m looking at an unpublished report about KP3 and it’s crazy. FDA hasn’t even seen it yet. They need to know.
Eric Feigl-Ding (X, June 12, 2024)
See graphics and other data in the tweets.
GraculusTheGreenBird
Muse
I don't think anyone is arguing that its over. I certainly don't think its over.
What has been argued is the majority of people globally simply don't care or even think about it any more, and are just not prepared to make any more concessions to it than they are doing now, and certainly no more than for seasonal flu.
They accept that life is a bit more dangerous now than it was before 2020.
You might not like it, you can argue they are wrong and shortsighted, you can show that more people are dying from Covid than are dying from flu, but surely you have to accept the reality that people are in fact ACTING as if it is over, and are unlikely to change now?
You haven't been following the thread, have you?
When I talk with friends and acquaintances, I notice that they actually don't know that the pandemic isn't over. It is not a question of accepting that "life is a bit more dangerous now than it was before 2020." They actually think that life isn't "a bit more dangerous" than before 2020, thanks to the disinformation being spread by authorities, the media and social media.
This was marting's 'argument' for pretending that the pandemic is over:
If you use the CDC link, you'll notice that COVID-19 still isn't mentioned. If you click on OUTBREAKS, you still won't see C19 mentioned, but there's "Measles cases in 2024: "As of June 6, 2024, a total of 151 measles cases were reported by 22 jurisdiction."
Measles cases! As compared with COVID-19 deaths of which there were 321 in the most recent fiscal year in San Diego County alone!
You are right when you say that (some, far from all) "people are in fact ACTING as if it is over," but they are acting as if it's over because they have been led to believe that it actually is over. It's what the spreaders of disinformation in this thread and in the media has made them believe.
When I talk with friends and acquaintances, I notice that they actually don't know that the pandemic isn't over. It is not a question of accepting that "life is a bit more dangerous now than it was before 2020." They actually think that life isn't "a bit more dangerous" than before 2020, thanks to the disinformation being spread by authorities, the media and social media.
This was marting's 'argument' for pretending that the pandemic is over:
If you use the CDC link, you'll notice that COVID-19 still isn't mentioned. If you click on OUTBREAKS, you still won't see C19 mentioned, but there's "Measles cases in 2024: "As of June 6, 2024, a total of 151 measles cases were reported by 22 jurisdiction."
Measles cases! As compared with COVID-19 deaths of which there were 321 in the most recent fiscal year in San Diego County alone!
You are right when you say that (some, far from all) "people are in fact ACTING as if it is over," but they are acting as if it's over because they have been led to believe that it actually is over. It's what the spreaders of disinformation in this thread and in the media has made them believe.
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GraculusTheGreenBird
Muse
No, they are acting as if life is a bit more dangerous than before, because it is actually a bit more dangerous than before. But its not the height of the pandemic now, and the fatality levels are nowhere near what they were. I had a work colleague in India who when delta was raging there had 6 friends/relatives die in one day. That kind of thing is just not happening now, is it, or do you have evidence that it is?
The reality is that the fatality levels that we have now are generally accepted as the price of living in the post-covid world without lockdowns and other restrictions. So, yes people are acting as if it is over, because from their point of view, it is in fact over.
Feel free to believe what you want to believe. I know the reaction of people I talk with, and they don't know and don't act "as if life is a bit more dangerous." For the most part, they act as if the pandemic is over because that's what they have been led to believe that it is. They haven't known since the summer of 2022 when we had been told that we had acquired "super immunity".
As for the level of C19 fatalities, people don't know about that either. It was apparent in December when the number of hospitalizations was high but was no longer reported by the media and hidden away on a site that very few people know about.
Those of us in the know are aware when numbers are high or low, most people aren't. And most people wouldn't know where to find the weekly number of new deaths and hospitalizations (both currently low) even when I link to the site: Luftevejsinfektioner: Covid-19 - Danmark (region) - opdateres her onsdage kl. 14
I have to tell them how to use the site.
This is reality in Denmark - and in many other parts of the world according to what I'm told. It is possible that it's different in Hong Kong, but it would surprise med if it is.
As for the level of C19 fatalities, people don't know about that either. It was apparent in December when the number of hospitalizations was high but was no longer reported by the media and hidden away on a site that very few people know about.
Those of us in the know are aware when numbers are high or low, most people aren't. And most people wouldn't know where to find the weekly number of new deaths and hospitalizations (both currently low) even when I link to the site: Luftevejsinfektioner: Covid-19 - Danmark (region) - opdateres her onsdage kl. 14
I have to tell them how to use the site.
This is reality in Denmark - and in many other parts of the world according to what I'm told. It is possible that it's different in Hong Kong, but it would surprise med if it is.
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Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...
California
COVID is coming for Calif., and it's already hitting the Bay Area the hardest (SF Gate June 12, 2024)
Denmark
It my own country, KP.2 and KP.3 have had no impact on C19 hospitalizations and deaths yet.
There has been a rise in the numbers from late May to early June in the national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, but so far it's from "Very low level" to "Low level."
NZ
No mention of ventilation or air purification as a means to combat absence or the need for relief teachers:
Relief teachers in high demand as sicknesses impact schools (RNZ, June 7, 2024)
Are relief teachers cheaper than HEPA filters?
California
COVID is coming for Calif., and it's already hitting the Bay Area the hardest (SF Gate June 12, 2024)
Denmark
It my own country, KP.2 and KP.3 have had no impact on C19 hospitalizations and deaths yet.
There has been a rise in the numbers from late May to early June in the national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, but so far it's from "Very low level" to "Low level."
NZ
School should be the best pox party in town.
We have put C19 behind us now, so absence must be an attitude problem.
No mention of ventilation or air purification as a means to combat absence or the need for relief teachers:
Relief teachers in high demand as sicknesses impact schools (RNZ, June 7, 2024)
Are relief teachers cheaper than HEPA filters?
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2006
- Messages
- 36,406
Cases down, hospitalisations down, deaths down.
What happened to the FLiRT wave that was going to overwhelm us?
Hospitals are struggling with RSV and 'flu, not covid.
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...
It is always the same old tiresome story with The Atheist!
I present data:
The Atheist presents us with nothing but claims:
Let us see the numbers! How many patients are hospitalized with RSV and influenza in NZ?
In the meantime:
"An expert says New Zealand is experiencing its highest peak in Covid-19 cases since December 2022." (NZ Doctor, June 4, 2024)
Covid: NZ records its highest peak in 18 months — epidemiologist (1News.co.nz, May 27, 2024)
It is always the same old tiresome story with The Atheist!
I present data:
The Atheist presents us with nothing but claims:
Let us see the numbers! How many patients are hospitalized with RSV and influenza in NZ?
In the meantime:
"An expert says New Zealand is experiencing its highest peak in Covid-19 cases since December 2022." (NZ Doctor, June 4, 2024)
Covid: NZ records its highest peak in 18 months — epidemiologist (1News.co.nz, May 27, 2024)
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