How do we know a pandemic's over?

[marting]

Eric Topol interviews Akiko Iwasaki, a top researcher on long covid. Excellent discussion of all the different aspects.

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/akiko-iwasaki-the-immunology-of-covid

 

[ahhell]

What is your point? It is a well-known fact that old people are much more likely to die when they get C19 than young people, but have you looked at the numbers (and ages!) of people who get Long Covid? Are young or middle-aged people who get it supposed to comfort themselves with the thought that, 'Well, I may have Long Covid, but at least I'm not dead or old'?

Pretty much, yes, I'd rather have long covid than be dead. That being said, I was just responding to the evidence that Ramjets posted, which more or less demonstrated that covid is worse the older you are. Which seemed to contradict the point he was trying to make.

Eric Feigl-Ding on X mentions that "This 7% is official CDC data. And it hasn’t significantly dropped. It’s pretty steady."
From here: Long COVID (CDC)

Appears to be self reported, which is...meh as far as evidence goes.

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...s_compassion_but_also_skepticism_827901.html#!

 

[marting]

Pretty much, yes, I'd rather have long covid than be dead. That being said, I was just responding to the evidence that Ramjets posted, which more or less demonstrated that covid is worse the older you are. Which seemed to contradict the point he was trying to make.
Appears to be self reported, which is...meh as far as evidence goes.

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...s_compassion_but_also_skepticism_827901.html#!

Yeah. I too think it's overstated. Doesn't mean it's not a real thing. Dianna Cowern aka Physics Girl for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianna_Cowern

There were major after-effects from the 1918 Flu for an unfortunate few too. But I think a big part is just the day-to-day ills that go with living. For those that get ME/CFS, which can be devastating and can occur after most any infection, this has been an opportunity to study these relatively rare diseases.

 

[ahhell]

Yeah. I too think it's overstated. Doesn't mean it's not a real thing. Dianna Cowern aka Physics Girl for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianna_Cowern

There were major after-effects from the 1918 Flu for an unfortunate few too. But I think a big part is just the day-to-day ills that go with living. For those that get ME/CFS, which can be devastating and can occur after most any infection, this has been an opportunity to study these relatively rare diseases.

Yep, I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I am however somewhat skeptical.

 

[theprestige]

I was just talking my 50 year old friend (who is an electrician) 5 minutes ago, after he picked up a parcel I was holding for him. I didn't let him into the house and kept my distance. Then he told me (in between coughs) that he got Covid 2 weeks ago and only recovered enough to go back to work today. Half the people at his workplace are currently off sick with Covid. Yet the latest figures say only 8 out of every 100,000 people per day are getting it here. How can this be?


According to a Gallup poll taken in March, 59% of Americans believe the pandemic is over and 41% don't. However there is a big partisan split - 79% of republicans think it's over while 59% of democrats think it isn't. 57% of US adults say their lives are not yet back to 'normal', and 14% say they will never be.

Stop press: My brother just rang up to tell me he's got Covid! : jaw-dropp

If he's not reporting it to the authorities, and seeking medical intervention, I don't think it counts for the purposes of this thread.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

If he's not reporting it to the authorities, and seeking medical intervention, I don't think it counts for the purposes of this thread.

He did report it, and got antiviral medicine by doctor's prescription.

 

[The Atheist]

There were major after-effects from the 1918 Flu for an unfortunate few too.

Top man! (again)

I think a lot of viral infections have ongoing effects and it's only the sheer number of covid cases that have made it remarkable.

 

[dann]

It's "only the sheer number of covid cases that have made it remarkable"?!
Well, here we go then:

The new KP.3 variant has climbed to 1 in 4 new COVID-19 cases nationwide, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated Friday, making it now the dominant strain of the virus nationwide.
KP.3's ascent comes as the CDC has tracked key metrics of spread from the virus now starting to trend up. Previous years have seen surges of the virus peak around August.
Data from CDC's wastewater surveillance has tracked levels of the virus starting to accelerate in the West. Emergency room visits for COVID-19 have inched up in recent weeks for all ages. COVID-19 infections are likely growing in 30 states and territories, the CDC now estimates.
(...)
KP.2 and KP.3 are also not identical. Early data suggests KP.3's mutations might be better at evading immunity.
New COVID variant KP.3 climbs to 25%, now largest in CDC estimates (CBS News, June 7, 2024)

One problem with the continuous stream of new mutations resulting in new variants is

Picking out new COVID-19 vaccines
KP.3's rise comes as the FDA said Friday that it had decided to call for shots this fall to be updated for the JN.1 variant that was dominant earlier this year, effectively turning down a newer formula aimed at the KP.2 variant.
"Yes, we always say we shouldn't be chasing strains, but we're paying an incredibly high premium for mRNA vaccines to be able to have the freshest vaccines," the FDA's Peter Marks had told the meeting.
Moderna had presented data from animal studies suggesting its KP.2-targeted shot offered similar protection against the latest variants, compared to a shot designed for JN.1. Pfizer's shot for KP.2 triggered better antibody responses for JN.1 variants, including KP.3.
"If this evolves further in the fall, will we regret not having been a little bit closer," Marks said.
But the FDA ultimately decided to pass on the KP.2 shots, after the agency's advisers worried it might not do a better job at broadening immunity for future strains compared to JN.1.

 

[dann]

He did report it, and got antiviral medicine by doctor's prescription.

Denmark is a Third-Wold country in this respect: no Paxlovid for people younger than 85 - and I'm not even sure that all 85+ get it. It appears to be the same in the rest of Scandinavia.

 

[dann]

Taylor Swift spreads Covid: thousands of fans fall ill after Madrid and Paris concerts. (El Nacional, June 6, 2024)

It's not the first time: Lots of Swifties Are Saying They Got COVID after the LA Eras Tour Shows (SELF, Aug 15, 2023)

I guess Swift herself isn't the super spreader of the virus, but she and others provide the venues for their fans to spread it. On the other hand:
Lady Gaga performed on stage with Covid. Did we learn nothing from the pandemic? (TheGuardian, May 24, 2024)

A young drummer from the band Glass Beach:

I (william) am headed toward a difficult choice of not playing live music anymore.
I will still play the 2 shows we already have booked:
-no earbuds fest
-mortis jackrabbit/floral tattoo
but past that point I don't know what my life with live music is going to be. (1/3)

you can agree with me or not. you can say it's people's personal choice to take risks as they want, but I would urge you all to not keep taking this risk without some form of consistent, effective precaution.
the world isn't getting safer, medical treatment isn't getting cheaper.

thank you all, and I'm sorry if you just can't understand why I'm doing this.
I wish you could.
-william
glass beach plastic death out now (X, June 3, 2024)

He elaborates in three short video clips, 1:19, 2:20 & 1:10.

 

[dann]

Yeah. I too think it's overstated. Doesn't mean it's not a real thing. Dianna Cowern aka Physics Girl for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianna_Cowern

From Kyle, Dianna’s husband:
Two years ago, I married my smart, adventurous, curious best friend. I loved her curiosity and so did her 3M+ followers on her Science YouTube channel.
Now, she’s been 100% bedbound with long Covid for 1.5 years. She lays in a dark room, earplugs in, with only her mind and simple thoughts to keep her company. No, she can’t talk, watch TV, read books, listen to podcasts or even music. She can’t tolerate visitors (even the faint smell of laundry detergent makes her sicker). It’s a kind of locked-in hell and there’s currently no cure for this disease.
We desperately need more funding for research to find the cure for #longcovid and #MECFS .
@SenDuckworth @SenMarkey @timkaine @BernieSanders
Dianna Cowern (X, June 6, 2024)

There were major after-effects from the 1918 Flu for an unfortunate few too. But I think a big part is just the day-to-day ills that go with living. For those that get ME/CFS, which can be devastating and can occur after most any infection, this has been an opportunity to study these relatively rare diseases.

I årerne omkring 1920 begynder folk i hele verden, tilsyneladende ud af det blå, at falde i en dyb Tornerosesøvn og sove i dage- og ugevis. Og også Danmark er ramt af den uhyggelige sovesyge. Et stort antal af patienterne dør, og andre får livslange neurologiske lidelser. Asger Juhl og professor i epidemiologi, Lone Simonsen, jagter svar på, hvad det var for en sygdom og undersøger, om den kunne hænge sammen med Den spanske syge, som hærgerede i hele verden på omtrent samme tidspunkt. For hvis den gjorde, kan vi så forvente os noget lignende i kølvandet på Covid19?
Mysterierne om Danmarks dræbersygdomme: Den uhyggelige sovesyge (DR.dk)

In the years before and after 1920, people all over the world, apparently for no reason at all, enter into a deep 'Sleeping-Beauty' sleep. They sleep for days and weeks. It happens in Denmark, too. A great number of patients die, and others get life-long neurological diseases. Asger Juhl and professor of epidemiology, Lone Simonsen, are trying to find the answer to what kind of disease it was. They investigate if it could be connected to the Spanish Flu, which was a scourge all over the world at the same time. Because if it is, can we then expect something similar after COVID-19?
The mysteries of Denmark's killer diseases: The uncanny sleeping sickness

Looking at diagnoses and health statistics in Denmark at the time, they conclude that it is very likely that the two diseases, the 1918 flu and sleeping disease are connected, but there is no smoking gun.

Encephalitis Lethargica: Aftermath (Wikipedia)

 

[dann]

Pretty much, yes, I'd rather have long covid than be dead. That being said, I was just responding to the evidence that Ramjets posted, which more or less demonstrated that covid is worse the older you are. Which seemed to contradict the point he was trying to make.
Appears to be self reported, which is...meh as far as evidence goes.
url]https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2022/04/23/long_covid_deserves_compassion_but_also_skepticism_827901.html#[/url]!

C19 is indeed "worse the older you are" on average. Some old people are fine, some young people and even children die or get Long Covid.

Yep, I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I am however somewhat skeptical.

Long covid has mainly been discussed in the thread in the science, maths, medicine and technology subforum. People who are "somewhat skeptical" of Long Covid ignored most of what was presented in the thread.

 

[dann]

Madrid: Covid-19 hospital admissions already greater than last winter peak
Madrid Health Department report (in Spanish)
https://comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/epid/informe_epidemiologico_semanal.pdf
CoronaHeadsUp (X, June 8, 2024)

See the graph of "Ingresos hospitalarios" 2022-23 and 2023-24 in the tweet or on page seven in the link to INFORME EPIDEMIOLÓGICO SEMANAL COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Semana 22.

 

[marting]

See the graph of "Ingresos hospitalarios" 2022-23 and 2023-24 in the tweet or on page seven in the link to INFORME EPIDEMIOLÓGICO SEMANAL COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Semana 22.

Interesting. Pretty rapid spike. Seems to be hitting the elderly particularly hard. Looking at the breakdown by age groups the over 80 folks are almost all of it while the under 65's are running lower than most of the preceding year. Could be higher sensitivity to the new variant.

 

[dann]

Minimizers Gonna Minimize

Crickets...
The CDC's main web site doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page. The leading articles are about bird flu, heart disease, heat risk, and measles. And a link to a story about E. Coli in organic walnuts.
https://www.cdc.gov/

With kids, “hardly any” died.
With old people, well they’re old.
How doctors used different techniques to minimize Covid fatalities.
My latest from @ScienceBasedMed
Jonathan Howard MD (X, June 9, 2024)

“This Thing Has Killed Less Than Or About As Many As Flu Would Kill In A Normal Year In Kids, I Say Hardly Any” & “80-Year-Olds, Their Time To Death In General Is Not That Long.” (Science-Based Medicine, June 9, 2024)

Episode 28.
How pro-infection doctors who claimed to value “discussion and debate” encouraged a climate of hate against Fauci, @PeterHotez, and others.
For these doctors, the pandemic was a spectacle, an opportunity to perform.
Jonathan Howard MD (X, June 9, 2024)

The Dark Truth About COVID-19 Natural Immunity Claims (We Want Them Infected Podcast, June 9, 2024 - 47 min.)

 

[The Atheist]

Looking at the breakdown by age groups the over 80 folks are almost all of it while the under 65's are running lower than most of the preceding year.

Covid read my thread. Cull those damned over 80s!

Given their advanced age, and the lack of panic from health authorities at the appalling number of deaths, I'm sticking with my position that the ones dying were already at death's door.

They may have survived actual weeks without covid! OMG!
____________________

Meanwhile, in NZ, the health department is so over pandemic status for covid that I had to get a prescription for my 14-year-old to get a vaccine. Under 18s cannot get a vaccine unless directed by a specialist.

Some people will still cry about it, though.

 

[marting]

Covid read my thread. Cull those damned over 80s!

Hey! I'm only 4 years away.

That said, If people are going to die, I'd rather see a cluster over 80 than the same number under 50. The Delta wave hit more younger people than the original and much worse than the Flu typically does. Omicron shifted to us older folks. The Flirt variants appear to skew that way even more. Good that it doesn't have the Delta mortality distribution.

 

[The Atheist]

Hey! I'm only 4 years away.

You'll be fine.

I know a good number of 80+ people who survived covid - twice in most cases. They're all reasonably healthy and their friends who croaked were not.

From here on, apart from the unlucky ones with immuno-deficiency, the only thing covid is doing in the death stakes is shortening the stay of hospice patients. (unless they're idiots who haven't had vaccines)

If you're healthy, covid won't kill you, even past 80. My in-laws were 84 & 85 when they had their two obligatory doses of covid and neither of them croaked or needed hospitalisation despite being Type II diabetic and the old bloke a bypass recipient as well. Both obese and had very little trouble. Fully vaccinated.

I think you'll have no problem, particularly with paxlovid available.

 

[dann]

The Importance of Pretending Everything's Fine ('Don't Look Up!')

So how are the 6-to-69-year-olds doing?
Weil, ...

My son is also immunocompromised with an auto-immune disease that has already cost him 30 cm of lower intestine. He wears a mask and I wear one as well. That's my choice, but I don't expect anyone else to wear one.

I was actually looking for the 'tomato juice' post, but that one must have been in the other thread.

New Zealand (and a bit from the UK):

We've been building a house for the past years.
Our move in date was November 2024. Just found out it will be in 2025, due to... drumroll ... Covid.
Turns out that 3 different companies - electricians, glaziers and window fitters - are all out with Covid (95% of all staff) now which ...

..affects the timeline majorly when so many people are ill. One of the companies lost the job entirely.
The majority of businesses in NZ are small to medium enterprises. 93% of businesses have less than 10 employees. If 7 of 9 staff is out, it's detrimental to the business.

So why does our new government, who is all about the economy and the 'hardworking' small Kiwi businesses, not drawing this correlation?
Why aren't the businesses? One said to me "I didn't know Covid was back". I know it's almost absent from the news, but as a business owner ...

... he can do what I do, monitor the situation. I knew it was coming, I saw it was making rounds in Europe, then creating havoc in Australia which is a sure tell sign it will hit NZ.
But how leaders are not correlating health to the economy is the most shocking part.

Instead the new government is rehashing the same mistakes that UK/Sweden did with spending money on campaigns to tell workers and kids to go to work/school sick even though that proved to be a mistake.
Making their citizens more sick. And costing more.

The previous government halted Covid for New Zealand for 2 years.
The new government wants us to get sicker. Now spending a million dollar on a campaign to get sick kids back in schools.
And this is good for the NZ health and economy - how exactly? ��
Winter illness puts dent in school attendance as officials mull social media campaign (RNZ.co.nz, June 10, 2024)

Adding in what is happening already and will happen more when sending kids back to school.
Same happens at workplaces but less reporting on it as kids and attendance rates are such a hot topic with the new government who thought they could change it.
WicMar (X, June 10, 2024)

During New Zealand's first large Covid waves in 2022, teachers experienced higher rates of infection than any other occupational group, including healthcare workers.
Source: NZ Government's own data, not made public at the time (see below).

Teachers were more at risk even than people treating Covid patients.
Questions:
- Why did Govt choose to believe clearly unlikely assurances that Covid wouldn't spread easily in schools?
- Why were the data not made public at the time? Why weren't teachers warned or protected?
Amanda Kvalsvig (X, June 5, 2024)

Long Covid teachers join forces to sue ministers
@schoolsweek
Teachers might be interested to see that not only is there clean air in Parliament but World Leaders are protected with PCR tests & specialised badges for entry at the International Economic ... forum in St. Petersburg but vulnerable staff & all children have zero protection in our schools from #Longcovid.
Long Covid teachers join forces to sue ministers (SchoolsWeek, May 20, 2024)
While we all go to work and school without #Airfilters MPs have clean air in Parliament.
https://www.purifiedair.com/case-studies/palace-of-westminster/
Esther (X, June 5, 2024)

 

[The Atheist]

So how are the 6-to-69-year-olds doing?

Fine.

I see you found a fellow panicker from NZ to quote.

First off, she's anti-National, and secondly, she's lying through her teeth. I do not believe that three different companies have 95% of their people off with covid. There is very little covid around and of our 1000 employees we have a current sick rate of 3.6%, completely normal for the time of year. Some of them may be covid, but nobody even bothers asking.