U.S. Border and Immigration

[johnny karate]

Yes, it was. I even quoted your post, bigot.

And after the ball ricochets off the back of the rim, it hits the player in the face who then stumbles around the court in a daze pretending he scored while everyone watching wonders if he has a concussion.

 

[Bogative]

I also saw the comment you expressed to Norman Alexander, that "your opinion blows goats".

That's another way of saying his opinions are dog **** or ******* retarded.

You are an unrepentant bigot, who occasionally tries to hide behind a pretence of sarcasm when things get too hot.

Ahh! There's that ****** mind-reading from an alleged skeptic, didn't take you very long. You misunderstood something I said, I explain it to you and you revert to your previous, false conclusion. Super-Skepti! Your opinions of me are the same level as Norman Alexander's now, which are completely worthless.

It's hilarious how you jumped here to teach me a lesson in skepticism and then within a few posts you revert to mind reading and name-calling.

If you reject that characterisation, perhaps you could explain the purpose of you constantly linking to stories about brown-skinned immigrants allegedly committing crimes in the US?

You assume that I care about your characterization of my beliefs, that's where you went wrong.

What's your point?

My point is to bring attention to crimes committed by illegal aliens.

Plus, why don't you link to stories of alleged criminality by Russian or other white immigrants?

Honestly? I haven't run across any yet. But if I do, I will.

Your Skepti-brain probably makes you believe that is because I ignore crime by white illegals and only post crime by black and brown illegals.

In reality though it's probably because most illegals are black or brown so it's much more likely that I will run across news reports of their criminality.

 

[Bogative]

Bernardo Raul Castro-Mata, an illegal alien from Venezuela, shot 2 cops in New York last night.

Police tried to apprehend him after he was seen driving the wrong way down a one-way street (one-way streets and traffic laws are white supremacy, or something).

he is suspected in several robberies involving motorized scooters, Kenny said. Police believe that Castro-Mata did not operate alone, and is part of a crew using scooters to commit crimes, according to the NYPD.


“We’re looking at him for several other robbery patterns in the Queens area where he does have other co-defendants,” Kenny said during a briefing Monday morning.

In one incident, Castro-Mata is suspected of attacking a woman and stealing her credit card, according to the NYPD.

He attacked a woman and stole her credit card, he must've needed to buy bread to feed his starving family?


Nevermind.

The credit card was later used at a Queens smoke shop.

Link

 

[Emily's Cat]

Please don't misrepresent my argument. I have not said I don't believe it: I have explicitly stated that I am perfectly prepared to believe it, given a named or official source. Unnamed deputies cited by sites known to make things up don't fit the bill.

Aside: I always find it interesting how selectively skepticism gets applied with respect to unnamed sources making negative claims. Sometimes it seems that large swathes of self-proclaimed skeptics are perfectly willing to accept extreme claims reported based on "someone in the know" who is never identified... and in other cases will outright reject moderately reasonable claims because the source is not identified.

With very few exceptions where the claim can be supported without unveiling the source, I'm inclined to reject anything at all that is reported by anonymous sources.

In this case, the claim isn't unreasonable or extreme, but it's still unsupported and I can't find any other reports making the same claim, nor does there appear to be any reference to documentation status anywhere else. So at present it gets lumped into a big ol pile of "maybe, maybe not".

 

[Emily's Cat]

Quite a large one and getting worse:

Alright, there's an argument to be made to strengthen northern security as well. That said... 7,000 over the course of a year is a bit smaller than 6,200,000 at the southern border.

I think it is also likely to be more addressable, as the US generally has good relations with CA, and it seems likely that Canada would be interested in mutual border protection. I'm not so confident we have the same strong relationship with MX.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Which is exactly what what we were given. We were told by a commenter that the culprit was an illegal immigrant. This poster is not known for accuracy and reliability and neither is the one source he cited.

That doesn't make it reasonably 50/50, because you do have other information. Maybe you don't have specific stats at your fingertips, but you absolutely have information that would allow you to adjust your starting position on this.

First off, we all know that immigrants are a minority within the US, and illegal immigrants an even smaller minority. So right off the top, that reduces the likelihood that any give random criminal is an illegal immigrant. I don't have specific numbers, but I'd say it's more like 10% chance that a random criminal is here illegally.

But wait - there's more. We can reasonably surmise that the criminal in question is of hispanic descent, based on name and photo. And since we know that there's a higher prevalence of illegal immigrants within the subset of the US population that has hispanic heritage, that should nudge the likelihood up a bit. IMO I wouldn't move it to any higher than a 20% chance.

We also, however, know that the crime occurred in Los Angeles. And whether you want to acknowledge it or not, California in general and LA county in particular have taken a policy position of acting as a "sanctuary" for illegal immigrants, with a very low propensity to either report or deport. That then creates a higher likelihood of any given person (regardless of ethnicity) in Cali being illegal. But still a minority.

All of these things taken together would nudge the starting point of a reasonable person with a moderate understanding of statistics. If I'm feeling very aggressive toward reducing illegal immigration, I might be inclined to go as high as 40% likelihood of a random hispanic criminal in LA being illegal. If I'm feeling conservative, I might go as low as 25% chance.

Either way, it's not reasonably 50/50.

 

[Ziggurat]

Alright, there's an argument to be made to strengthen northern security as well. That said... 7,000 over the course of a year is a bit smaller than 6,200,000 at the southern border.

I think it is also likely to be more addressable, as the US generally has good relations with CA, and it seems likely that Canada would be interested in mutual border protection. I'm not so confident we have the same strong relationship with MX.

It's not just a matter of the strength of relationships. Mexico has a VERY strong incentive to encourage as much immigration (legal or otherwise) into the USA as possible. For one, it relieves social pressures locally. For another, it's a massive source of income for the country. A lot of immigrants to the US from Mexico send money back home, to the tune of about $63 billion last year. And that's not even counting corruption among local officials.

Incentives mater. And Canada doesn't have the same incentives Mexico does.

 

[johnny karate]

That doesn't make it reasonably 50/50, because you do have other information. Maybe you don't have specific stats at your fingertips, but you absolutely have information that would allow you to adjust your starting position on this.

First off, we all know that immigrants are a minority within the US, and illegal immigrants an even smaller minority. So right off the top, that reduces the likelihood that any give random criminal is an illegal immigrant. I don't have specific numbers, but I'd say it's more like 10% chance that a random criminal is here illegally.

But wait - there's more. We can reasonably surmise that the criminal in question is of hispanic descent, based on name and photo. And since we know that there's a higher prevalence of illegal immigrants within the subset of the US population that has hispanic heritage, that should nudge the likelihood up a bit. IMO I wouldn't move it to any higher than a 20% chance.

We also, however, know that the crime occurred in Los Angeles. And whether you want to acknowledge it or not, California in general and LA county in particular have taken a policy position of acting as a "sanctuary" for illegal immigrants, with a very low propensity to either report or deport. That then creates a higher likelihood of any given person (regardless of ethnicity) in Cali being illegal. But still a minority.

All of these things taken together would nudge the starting point of a reasonable person with a moderate understanding of statistics. If I'm feeling very aggressive toward reducing illegal immigration, I might be inclined to go as high as 40% likelihood of a random hispanic criminal in LA being illegal. If I'm feeling conservative, I might go as low as 25% chance.

Either way, it's not reasonably 50/50.

An admonishment not to pull statistics out of one's ass followed by pulling statistics out of one's ass. Flawlessly executed. No notes.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It's not just a matter of the strength of relationships. Mexico has a VERY strong incentive to encourage as much immigration (legal or otherwise) into the USA as possible. For one, it relieves social pressures locally. For another, it's a massive source of income for the country. A lot of immigrants to the US from Mexico send money back home, to the tune of about $63 billion last year. And that's not even counting corruption among local officials.

Incentives mater. And Canada doesn't have the same incentives Mexico does.

Another excellent reason to make seasonal work visas plentiful and easy to obtain.

 

[Cosmic Yak]

My point is to bring attention to crimes committed by illegal aliens.

No ****, Sherlock. You are posting about crimes committed by illegal aliens to show that some illegal aliens commit crimes. Should this come as a startling revelation to anyone? Does this ongoing list of yours show anything more than that?
I'm still none the wiser. Is that it, or is there some wider purpose to this?

 

[Cosmic Yak]

Yes, it was. I even quoted your post, bigot.

Don't be silly.

 

[Bogative]

No ****, Sherlock. You are posting about crimes committed by illegal aliens to show that some illegal aliens commit crimes. Should this come as a startling revelation to anyone? Does this ongoing list of yours show anything more than that?
I'm still none the wiser. Is that it, or is there some wider purpose to this?

That's pretty much it and to point out that our horrible immigration policies can have really tragic consequences.

 

[Bogative]

Josue Ruben Silva, an illegal alien from Venezuela, "who has already been busted half a dozen times this year on robbery, theft and gun charges," is now a suspect in a double murder in New York City.

Here's what happened:

Police sources said the victims were outside the Davidson Avenue building shortly after midnight when a passerby made a disrespectful comment to a 44-year-old woman.

The woman’s boyfriend confronted the creep and the two got into a dispute – but the man left and went inside the building, only to return later with a menacing group of friends lugging baseball bats, according to sources.

One of the thugs opened fire with a .40-caliber handgun, striking the woman, her 36-year-old boyfriend and a 21-year-old woman who was struck in the arm, sources said.

If he only had a work visa, this wouldn't have happened… or something.

Link

 

[ahhell]

You know, I'm sort of on the side of we have an issue on the border, its out of control and we basically have know idea who millions of folks coming into the country are but anecdotes are still anecdotes and prove nothing. Every culture has its ********, murders, criminals. This is the right wing equivalent of all those old Xing while black threads. A series of anecdotes, not data or evidence of any real pattern.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Speaking of Bayesian priors...

That doesn't make it reasonably 50/50, because you do have other information. Maybe you don't have specific stats at your fingertips, but you absolutely have information that would allow you to adjust your starting position on this.

First off, we all know that immigrants are a minority within the US, and illegal immigrants an even smaller minority. So right off the top, that reduces the likelihood that any give random criminal is an illegal immigrant. I don't have specific numbers, but I'd say it's more like 10% chance that a random criminal is here illegally.

That's about right. We can improve upon that Bayesian prior by looking at incarceration rates.

According to a Cato Institute study of those incarcerated in 2016, illegal immigrants accounted for about 5.5% of that population.

[size=+2]Incarcerations[/size]

An estimated 1,955,951 native-born Americans, 117,994 illegal immigrants, and 43,618 legal immigrants were incarcerated in 2016. The incarceration rate for native-born Americans was 1,521 per 100,000, 800 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, and 325 per 100,000 for legal immigrants in 2016 (Figure 1). Illegal immigrants are 47 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. Legal immigrants are 78 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives.

 

[johnny karate]

Sorry W.D. Clinger, but you'll need to take that data elsewhere. This thread is for vibes only.

 

[bruto]

Let's hear it for those legal immigrants! Sounds as if we need more of those.

 

[zorro99]

President will issue an EO on border enforcement today since republicans refuse to act.

 

[ponderingturtle]

President will issue an EO on border enforcement today since republicans refuse to act.

Specifically he shut down giving anyone asylum. Ah like the good old days when we stood up to Hitler and said "No, we will not take your jews, they are your problem find your own solution for them" And we are supposed to be all upset at his chosen solution now.

 

[Random]

Specifically he shut down giving anyone asylum. Ah like the good old days when we stood up to Hitler and said "No, we will not take your jews, they are your problem find your own solution for them" And we are supposed to be all upset at his chosen solution now.

It's a brilliant political move. Now that Biden has completely shut down any and all controversy about the border, the GOP will have nothing to complain about going into the election, right?

Right?