Criminal Charges Against Trump / Trump Indicted / Hush Money Part III

[W.D.Clinger]

Convicted felon trump cannot vote for himself anymore.

He will probably be allowed to vote for himself. See below for details.

He can still vote until his appeals are exhausted.

And there's a good chance he will be allowed to vote even after his appeals are exhausted.

Bear with me here, because this is both surprising and a bit complicated.

Trump is registered to vote in Florida. Just a couple of years ago, Florida changed its laws concerning whether convicted felons could vote. Under the new law, whether a convicted felon can vote depends upon (1) whether they were convicted of a state crime or federal crime, (2) if a state crime in some state other than Florida, upon whether they would be eligible to vote in the state where they were convicted if they were a resident of that state.

Trump has now been convicted of a New York state crime. Under New York state law, convicted felons can vote unless they are in prison at the time of the election. That means Trump can vote in the 2024 election so long as he is not actually in prison on 5 November.

Trump is unlikely to be in prison on 5 November, even if he is sentenced to prison time, because his appeals are likely to be ongoing at that time, and he is unlikely to be incarcerated before his appeals are exhausted.

Trump is moderately likely to be eligible to vote even after his appeals are exhausted, because there's a good chance that (1) he will not be given a prison sentence or (2) if given a prison sentence, the sentence is likely to be so short that he will have served his time long before the 2028 election.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Personally I think this conviction will give Biden a permanent 3% to 5% bump in the polls.

That's reasonable. But that's the problem. Trumps polls are not reasonable.
IMHO it won't harm him. I'd say he'll gain a bit. Not 5%, but enough it's clear he's not losing.

Poll averages are very stable now, any change should be easy to detect. Based on:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

[Craig4]

Personally I think this conviction will give Biden a permanent 3% to 5% bump in the polls.

I suspect you're right. There will be a segment of voters who can't be arsed to find out what happens if a sitting president is ordered to prison.

 

[Steve]

Tucker Carlson, on X:

Import the Third World, become the Third World. That's what we just saw. This won't stop Trump. He'll win the election if he's not killed first.
But it does mark the end of the fairest justice system in the world.
Anyone who defends this verdict is a danger to you and your family.

So that's how the Trumpists are gonna spin this, as an incitement for civil war.
I agree with the Montana fishing shop guy when it comes to Tucker...

There is a smidgin of truth to the suggestion that the USA is a small step closer to a third world country. And it has much more to do with the repubs reaction than anything that happened at the trial.

 

[Craig4]

Question:

Judges often give reduced sentences if the guilty party is a "first time offender".

If Trump happens to get convicted at any other trial (either in Georgia, or the federal trial), what would be the results on his sentencing then? Would it lead to a harsher sentence because he is a "habitual offender"? Or would they ignore it because it was a different jurisdiction or because the indictments in Georgia/federally were issued before the guilty verdict in NY?

If he's found guilty in other trials, yes, being a repeat offender won't help. What I'm curious about is the impact of the criminal contempt charges. Under the federal guidelines getting a contempt citation is one of the listed reasons for the judge to make an upward departure from the sentencing guidelines. I'm not sure how it works in New York though.

 

[Athyrio]

I have never been so happy to be wrong.

GUILTY!

Me too, citizen. I always thought Trump would have Gottied the jury but if he did, then he got shystered.

 

[Segnosaur]

And spare a thought for Trumpy's lawyering team. Not only did they have to try and defend this sack of rotting yams, he has a chronic habit of stiffing them, especially when they lose. And this was one GIANT lose. The biggest. Like you have never seen before.

I hope you are not thinking we should have some sympathy for Trump's lawyers.

Yes, Trump was a difficult clent. But Trump has a questionable legal reputation going back decades. They knew what they were getting into when they agreed to represent him. And they also knew 1) he was fleecing his supporters to pay his legal fees, and 2) has they been successful, a man of questionable moral integrity would have been found innocent.

It's not like they were some downtrodden public defender, forced to defend whatever cases came across their desk.

 

[JayUtah]

It's not like they were some downtrodden public defender, forced to defend whatever cases came across their desk.

And it's not like the "Michael Cohen is a poopyhead" defense took a lot of effort.

 

[Segnosaur]

I've said before that one of the deep, scary things about Trump is that we've had absolute horrible trainwreck Presidents before but none of them; not Bush, not Nixon, did we ever had a valid, deep fear that would sprint away to Russia in the middle of the night and tell Putin state secrets in exchange for protection.

I doubt very much that Trump would reveal state secrets to Putin in exchange for protection.

Not because Trump has any integrity.
But because Trump probably gave them all to Putin a long time ago.

 

[Samson]

Meanwhile the forgone verdict has had the inevitable result of elevating Trump to hot favourite to win the election

4 to 5 on.
Biden 6 to 4
Trump twice as likely to win.

Ladbrokes.

 

[Norman Alexander]

And spare a thought for Trumpy's lawyering team. Not only did they have to try and defend this sack of rotting yams, he has a chronic habit of stiffing them, especially when they lose. And this was one GIANT lose. The biggest. Like you have never seen before.

I hope you are not thinking we should have some sympathy for Trump's lawyers.

Yes, Trump was a difficult client. But Trump has a questionable legal reputation going back decades. They knew what they were getting into when they agreed to represent him. And they also knew 1) he was fleecing his supporters to pay his legal fees, and 2) has they been successful, a man of questionable moral integrity would have been found innocent.

It's not like they were some downtrodden public defender, forced to defend whatever cases came across their desk.

Sympathy, certainly not. As you say, they made their bed, etc. I said to spare a thought, not cry a tear. I can just hear the conversations around the firm's board room table shortly: "What do you mean he's not going to pay us??! Why the **** did we even get involved with that ******* **********! We've trashed our reputation because of him, and for what!!"

 

[alfaniner]

Well, this should make for an interesting topic in the debate, anyway.

 

[lionking]

What does Trump have to do to be charged with contempt of court? Saying things like he has about a judge in Australia would have him banged up in seconds.

 

[sackett]

Trump skipping the country would be the best possible result for the USA. Even more than putting him in jail.

Donny Dumspurt is the sorta guy who'd run off to a country that has an extradition treaty with the US.

Then the Feds would have to petition for his arrest and return to America.

How long would that take? Weeks? Months? Years decades generations centuries? "People, we've finally got to get moving on this Trumpadition thing. Right after the holidays, okay? See you then. Ciao."

 

[Norman Alexander]

Well, this should make for an interesting topic in the debate, anyway.

Just poke Donny in the right place and he will go off like a broken cuckoo-clock. Perhaps even swearing and shouting. Biden won't have to say a thing.

Fun!

 

[Paul2]

Returning a verdict today or tomorrow would signal for me that it was pretty easy to find him guilty. It will take a while to address all 34 (?) counts specifically.

If Thursday evening rolls comes with no verdict, I'm getting more and more worried there is a holdout who won't budge.

Did I call that?!

 

[Samson]

Good point.

So far I have seen two replublicans say the verdict should be respected:
Larry Hogan, running for Senate
Asa Hutchison, ran for president

The rest have called the verdict a disgrace or something to that effect. The Republican party is in the toilet and they wonder why.

Wrong.
The republican party are in total control and this verdict has helped.

 

[Norman Alexander]

What does Trump have to do to be charged with contempt of court? Saying things like he has about a judge in Australia would have him banged up in seconds.

Apparently it's something to do with his 1A rights. And Merchan not wanting to give the slightest support for any appeals for bias in his courtroom management. Been discussed above at length.

Then again, I have seen plenty of those video clips of lower court judges in the USA handily slapping down mouthy defendants with fines and jail time. So it would have been delicious to see Donny get something similar.

 

[Norman Alexander]

Wrong.
The republican party are in total control and this verdict has helped.

LOL. And who is in total control of the Republican Party, pray tell?

 

[BillC]

Nothing ever happens in the news these days, it's so boring.