Cont: Global warming discussion V

4000 to 18000 Seems like a rather large spread... Something smells about that figure.. I agree it sounds ridiculous

I wonder what agenda is behind it.


I found a source that puts a pound of beef at 1800 gallons.
 
What about total meat consumption?

Poultry and pork farming combined probably produce as much if not more greenhouse gasses than beef.

There is a claim that red meat is a health issue.. That could be a plus in the grand scheme of things if it's true.

Per unit, beef and lam produce far more CO2 than any other foods.

Chicken produce less CO2 per unit than tomatoes grown in a UK commercial greenhouse.
 
I'm not skeptical of the C02 impact of beef production, but it's just another poster child that won't get any play from the masses that have no intention of giving up their burgers to combat global warming
 
Yet red meat consumption HAS dropped significantly.

According to the Defra Family Food Survey, UK consumers have reduced their combined household consumption of beef, pigmeat and sheep meat by almost 62% from 1980 to 2022, whilst chicken meat gained share.2 Apr 2024
Try to back up assertions with facts Greg.

As Europe's Meat Consumption Drops, Burger King Puts ...

2 Nov 2023 — New data shows that meat consumption has dropped in both Germany and the United Kingdom—regions where Burger King is challenging consumers
 
Try to back up assertions with facts Greg.

So where's the info confirming the notion that people are giving up burgers to combat global warming? I'd hate to track one of those articles down only to read that beef consumption has gone down to things like mad cow disease and cost.

Here's some facts.

Demand for meat is only going up
The production of meat has doubled in the 30 years from 1988 to 2018 and increased four-fold since the mid 1960s. And production is expected to continue to grow. By 2050, global meat consumption is projected to reach between 460 million and a staggering 570 million tons. 570 million tons would mean a consumption of meat twice as high as in 2008.

Link
 
Yet red meat consumption HAS dropped significantly.


Try to back up assertions with facts Greg.

Meat and Dairy Production
Global meat production has increased rapidly over the past 50 years – as we see, total production has more than quadrupled since 1961. The chart shows global meat production by region, measured in tonnes.


In the chart, we see the global production of cattle (beef and buffalo) meat. Globally, cattle meat production has more than doubled since 1961.

There is no indication that there is any, let alone significant, reduction in meat consumption in an effort to mitigate global warming.
 
They are actually but whenever you mention it the usual reply is along the lines of "that's for the government to worry about" When their houses, those houses in the rural woods with all the glorious trees right up to the exterior walls burn down and insurance builds them a new one, maybe they'll take construction materials and landscaping design a little more seriously. It certainly won't stop them from driving miles and miles into town to get a quart of milk.
Yeah, people in rural California are finding out about that.

But it's not just bad landscaping doing it. Hotter dryer conditions, lack of groundwater, pests that previously were kept at bay by colder winters now killing trees, high winds causing power lines to short out and spreading wildfires further - global warming is making everything worse.

I grew up on a farm 30 miles out of town. We went to the nearest gas station once a week for milk and bread, and into town once a month for supplies. When I got a job in town I lived across the street from work, and didn't own a car until after the management insisted that I get a driver's license.

Back in the 1960's stuff was expensive but made to be repaired, and didn't come wrapped in plastic. products took a long time to get here from overseas via efficient sea transport, and nobody except the rich flew anywhere. Long road trips were a big deal, taken maybe once a year if ever. The population was much lower too. Our carbon footprint was lower back then. With the modern technology we have today it could be much lower, without a significant drop in living standards.

It's willful ignorance. The information is out there it just takes a little digging. The media likes to report on all the fluff that's not going to make a whit of difference in the grand scheme of things.
There's willful ignorance for sure, but that's no excuse not to get the message out loud and clear.

What we need is a 'road map' like we had with Covid. It was a lot easier to handle being locked down when you knew what progress was being made. We should be doing the same with GHG emissions. We need to know exactly how much to reduce emissions and where, and what the measures currently being applied are doing to meet that. Ideally there would be a dashboard tracking it on a daily or weekly basis that everyone can monitor. Then when we are not meeting the goals we can insist on more being done.

Actually, that's not true people flew everywhere and put up with the restrictions and quarantine on arrival.
It was true in New Zealand. Many tourists were stranded here because we wouldn't let them fly out. But we only shut down for a few weeks, after which the virus was completely eliminated. We then had a whole year of virus-free normal life with a booming economy - until we made the fatal mistake of letting Australia into our 'bubble'. The second lock down was a disaster due to the new strain being much more infectious and a few people who refused to comply spreading it. We couldn't stamp it out, and had to rely on vaccinations. Then Omicron hit. Those more infectious strains wouldn't have developed if everyone had done what we did (and before you say "But New Zealand's an isolated little island, we couldn't do that - remember that China did it too, even though they are on a continent and the virus started there).

However this doesn't apply to global warming. We could allow a large number of people get away with not complying and still have a good result. If only we could communicate this fact there might be a lot less opposition.

Many, many kitchens got remodelled...
... and my house got the best 'spring clean' it will ever get. Many families discovered how much 'quality time' they were missing by having to be at work and school etc. My bother says he got more done working from home than he did at the office! It was quite surreal to hear only the sound of wildlife and the occasional DIY construction noise (reminded me of being back on the farm, so peaceful!).

The surprising thing is how quickly people adapted to the 'draconian' rules. Most weren't stressed because the government paid employers to keep their wages coming in, and 'essential workers' kept the supermarket shelves full. For most of us it was like a paid holiday (Not me though, as a 'casual' worker I got nothing! Luckily I got an 'essential' job which paid enough to keep the wolf from the door).

When disaster strikes people forget their fears and pull together to get through it. Coivid-19 was a good trial run for the real disaster we faced here last year. In this case it wasn't rules that stopped us from traveling, but the bridges, roads and railway lines being washed out. What's worse is the power was out too, luckily only for one day in my street but others were without electricity for up to 3 weeks. Couldn't get fuel either because pumps don't work when the power's off and looters stole the backup generators!

If we don't voluntarily cut emissions Mother Nature will do it for us. When 'natural' weather destroys roads we won't be able to drive our cars. When crops fail that land we cleared will be useless. When our homes go under water or burn to the ground our remodeled kitchens will be destroyed. Wouldn't it be much better to get off fossil fuels now, before we have to face that? But we won't, because that would be preempting a threat rather than just reacting to a disaster. Humans are generally too selfish and lazy to think that far ahead.

But we do learn. The response to the next potential pandemic will be much swifter and stronger. Each community that gets hit by a climate disaster will be more receptive to doing whatever is necessary to fix it. Eventually the Luddites will be drowned out by the rest of us dealing to global warming. There will be hardships, but people in Western countries won't suffer that much.

Of course poor people in 3rd world countries will die like flies. But people dying due to you not cutting back on GHG emissions is OK. Nobody will be called a murderer for doing something that they know will cause those deaths, because they can just deny it. Imagine some other situation where this was true. "Why yes, my car engine did spew all that oil out onto the road, and those other vehicles did slip and crash causing people to die - but you can't prove there's a connection! And besides, I couldn't afford to fix the oil leak so I had to drive it like that. How would I live without a car? Vehicular Mobility is my god-given right!"
 
Hummm last time I was on a 787 I put 15 000 miles on it, then another 5600 miles on some other jet. Pretty much, just for the hell of it.
Murderer! ;)

I like your thinking though. Fast fashion? not involved in it at all. Sure I eat a few burgers, but I much prefer chicken.
Same here. I have cut back on beef mostly because it's not good for my health, but the global warming impact is also troubling. I also don't drink milk or eat butter, and have cut back on cheese. 43% of GHG emissions in New Zealand are caused by dairy cows, sheep and beef cattle. Dairy cows are the worst!

It's all got to go. Climate protesters take note.
It doesn't all have to go, we just have to cut back enough that sinks will get us to net zero.

What should happen is that all industries cut back as much as they can, then pay for the removal of what they can't via taxes. But it has to be the true cost (not some carbon credit BS) and those taxes have to be used to actually offset it (by carbon capture etc.). At the end of the day the measure of success will be GHG concentrations and global temperature. If those indicators aren't going where they should then we have to change the emissions targets.
 
Murderer! ;)

Same here. I have cut back on beef mostly because it's not good for my health, but the global warming impact is also troubling. I also don't drink milk or eat butter, and have cut back on cheese. 43% of GHG emissions in New Zealand are caused by dairy cows, sheep and beef cattle. Dairy cows are the worst!

It doesn't all have to go, we just have to cut back enough that sinks will get us to net zero.

What should happen is that all industries cut back as much as they can, then pay for the removal of what they can't via taxes. But it has to be the true cost (not some carbon credit BS) and those taxes have to be used to actually offset it (by carbon capture etc.). At the end of the day the measure of success will be GHG concentrations and global temperature. If those indicators aren't going where they should then we have to change the emissions targets.

Yay!

I can't eat dairy, so have something else to add to my list of things what I have done.
 
So where's the info confirming the notion that people are giving up burgers to combat global warming?
I doubt there is any data on that.

However the increase in meat consumption per capita is driven almost entirely by poultry.

Per capita meat consumption by type, World, 1961 to 2021

picture.php


I'd hate to track one of those articles down only to read that beef consumption has gone down to things like mad cow disease and cost.
I'd hate to speculate on something I know nothing about. The chart above indicates that beef consumption hasn't gone down globally, but it may have done in some countries - perhaps those who put a carbon tax on beef thus raising the cost? (one can hope anyway).
 
4000 to 18000 Seems like a rather large spread... Something smells about that figure.. I agree it sounds ridiculous

I wonder what agenda is behind it.
It says "depending on conditions that cows are raised in", which can vary widely.

Some are pasture fed, others from grain or crops. In some areas (eg. central Hawke's Bay here in New Zealand) irrigation is used to increase pasture growth in summer. The water usage is extremely high, and the lush grass increases methane production. In contrast, on the farm I grew up on we mainly used beef cattle to keep pasture growth down in spring and early summer. Most of our production was lamb and wool.

On the farm we only ate old sheep, except for that one time when a bull broke its leg and we lived on beef for 6 months!
 
Meat and Dairy Production

There is no indication that there is any, let alone significant, reduction in meat consumption in an effort to mitigate global warming.

World population has increased from 3 to 8 billion since 1960.

Pixel42: You are right. An overall increase in meat production is more than likely a result of an increasing world population.
Looking at some of the top meat-consuming countries listed in SG's link, the trend there is a reduced consumption of red meat, specifically beef, per capita.
The US:
https://sentientmedia.org/meat-consumption-in-the-us/
New Zealand:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/kai/07-12-2021/new-zealand-has-hit-its-meat-eating-peak-new-research-shows
Argentina and South America:
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/3/560

This link also contains this information:
[T]he increasing consumer health and environmental concerns are expected to lead to a transition to alternative sources of protein (for example, plant-based and insect-based proteins), as well as to the substitution of proteins from red meats towards those from poultry meat and fish.

And this:
Between 1998 and 2018, global meat consumption increased by 58%. During this period, developing countries accounted for around 85% of this increase. The principal drivers were population growth, which accounted for 54% of this increase, changes in world production, and per person consumption growth. Globally, consumer preferences have shifted towards higher consumption of fish and poultry.

Looking at Europe, again, there is a decrease in meat consumption, and again, environmental concerns are listed as one of the reasons for this:
Sustainability, with its environmental, economic and societal objectives, is expected to play an increasingly prominent role in EU meat markets, both for producers and consumers. Modernisation, innovative technologies and changes in farming practices will lead to more efficient and more environmentally-friendly meat production. Still, the investments required to do so remain a challenge. Furthermore, concerns over the environment and climate change will result in consumers paying further attention to the production process and products’ origin. Consumers habits will also be driven by health considerations as well as convenience. Overall, EU meat per capita consumption is expected to drop from 69.8kg in 2018 to 67kg by 2031.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/ne...EU meat per capita,%) over the outlook period.
 
Perhaps missed the forest :rolleyes:....red meat is the problem from a climate and water standpoint
From your source
Poultry meat, for example, used to constitute a smaller portion of the total meat production, but its share has significantly increased. In contrast, the proportion of beef and buffalo meat in total production has decreased.

Total consumption is mostly meaningless when in a climate discussion.
 
4000 to 18000 Seems like a rather large spread... Something smells about that figure.. I agree it sounds ridiculous

I wonder what agenda is behind it.


I found a source that puts a pound of beef at 1800 gallons.

If there's any interest, Water Footprint Calculator goes a little more into the numbers going around.

As for why they prefer the roughly 1800 gallons number, they state -

I lean towards the Water Footprint Network’s (WFN) figure of 1,850 gallons of water per pound of beef for two reasons. First, they have created and standardized the rigorous methods behind water footprinting. Second, they use large, global data sets that incorporate many beef production systems from numerous countries. (Also, in the interest of statistics, it’s reasonable to discard the two extremes within the range [the outliers]—12,008 and 441.)

The bottom line is that it takes a lot of water to produce beef, especially when just a fraction of that water can be used to produce much more food with much lower water footprints.

I'll hazard a guess that the 4000 to 18000 number is from the study that gave the 12,008 average number, but any general number is going to be of limited use without more direct assessment of the specifics, given the worldwide range in efficiency.

Also, it probably helps if the source of the water is taken into account.

Pasture raised beef overwhelmingly relies upon natural water (rain), rather than irrigated water/water drawn from aquifers, and causes far less water pollution than industrially raised beef. Industrially raised beef involves much more irrigated water.
 
What was your point in bringing up the drop in red meat consumption, when it is having no measurable effect on the mitigation of global warming?
The drop in red meat consumption is so small that it's hard to measure the effect.

But it's not total red meat consumption that matters. What matters is how much GHG it produces. Lamb and pork is far less polluting than beef, so switching to them is a good idea (if you must have red meat). Or just cut down. Too much red meat is bad for you, and most westerners eat too much.
 
What was your point in bringing up the drop in red meat consumption, when it is having no measurable effect on the mitigation of global warming?

It is, and it will continue to do so.
One person going vegetarian or vegan, even one day per week, reduces their carbon footprint significantly.
Producing the average U.S. resident’s diet generates more than 2,000 kilograms of greenhouse gas emissions per year.
Going meatless one day a week brings down that figure to about 1,600 kilograms of CO2 equivalents per year, per person. Going vegan — a diet without any meat, dairy or other animal products — cuts it by 87 percent to under 300. Going even two-thirds vegan offers a sizable drop to 740 kilograms of CO2 equivalents.

One a national scale, the impact is also large:
a paper published in Nature Food in January shows that if the populations of 54 high-income nations switched to a plant-focused diet, annual emissions from these countries’ agricultural production could drop by more than 60 percent.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article...iet-carbon-greenhouse-gas-climate-agriculture

So every person that reduces their consumption of red meat is directly reducing their carbon footprint, and the more meat consumption is reduced in a population, the greater that effect will be.
 
... Lamb and pork is far less polluting than beef, so switching to them is a good idea (if you must have red meat). ...

Minor correction:
The sources that I have seen put lamb and mutton closer to beef. But agreed that pork - and chicken meat - have a significantly lower carbon footprint.
 
The drop in red meat consumption is so small that it's hard to measure the effect.

Not sure where you're getting that idea from, unless you mean the total global consumption mentioned earlier- which cannot be separated from the growth in world population.
In individual countries, the drop is striking. For example, in the UK, consumption of red meat (beef, pork and lamb/mutton) is at its lowest level since records began.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...n-lowest-level-since-record-began-data-reveal
 

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