How do we know a pandemic's over?

FLiRTing with KP.2

Well, if "the CDC's main web site doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page," it just must mean that the pandemic is over, mustn't it?!

In a recent preprint study posted to the bioRxiv server, a team of researchers analyzed the virological characteristics and epidemiological impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) FLiRT variant KP.2, which has demonstrated increased transmissibility and immune resistance.
Background
The rapid emergence and diversification of the JN.1 variant and its descendent, KP.2, which shows significant alterations in Spike (S) protein structure and increased resistance to existing vaccines, underscores the necessity for further research to understand the implications for public health and vaccine development.
New SARS-Cov-2 KP.2 variant defies vaccines with higher spread, study warns (MSN.com, April 30, 2024)


The mentioned preprint study:
KP.2 has higher viral fitness and potentially becomes the predominant lineage worldwide. Indeed, as of the beginning of April 2024, the estimated variant frequency of KP.2 has already reached 20% in United Kingdom.
The pseudovirus assay showed that the infectivity of KP.2 is significantly (10.5-fold) lower than that of JN.1. We then performed a neutralization assay using monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine sera and breakthrough infection (BTI) sera with XBB.1.5, EG.5, HK.3 and JN.1 infections. In all cases, the 50% neutralization titer (NT50) against KP.2 was significantly lower than that against JN.1. Particularly, KP.2 shows the most significant resistance to the sera of monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccinee without infection (3.1-fold) as well as those who with infection (1.8-fold). Altogether, these results suggest that the increased immune resistance ability of KP.2 partially contributes to the higher Re more than previous variants including JN.1.
Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.2 variant (bioRxiv)


HOLY ****
That's the biggest rise in covid positivity in a single week for nearly two years.
That's a 54% leap
I flipping told you
This is going to be a very nasty wave.
flu and covid report: National influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report: Week 18 report (up to week 17 2024 data) 2 May 2024
The UKHSA is completely asleep at the wheel. Drunk even.
It's just crazy, I thought that there was a bit of a spike going on based on the number of people I had heard of who were ill.
But if that same % increase happens next week, and then it increases at only 1/2 the rate the following week, it'll be the biggest wave in two years.
tern (X, May 2, 2024)
Graph (Figure 5) in both tweet and surveillance report of the weekly positivity (%) for SARS-CoV-2 by year (2022-23 & 2023-24), UK Health Security Agency.

As always, how this plays out remains to be seen.

The relative calm in the US regarding Covid-19 could be disrupted by a new cluster of SARS-CoV-2 variants, collectively known as the "FLiRT" variants.
These variants have emerged from the JN.1 lineage, responsible for a search in Covid-19 last winter. The most notable among these, the KP.2 variant, represented approximately 25% of the newly sequenced cases in the last two weeks of April, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Covid-19 'FLiRT' variants: What you need to know (Times of India, May 2, 2024)
 
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I always enjoy seeing articles about people getting crook from organic food.

Naturally Healthy!

Should read - "Contains all the natural pathogens real food avoids!".
 
The relative calm in the US regarding Covid-19 could be disrupted by a new cluster of SARS-CoV-2 variants, collectively known as the "FLiRT" variants.

As always, how this plays out remains to be seen.

:dl:

When you have to go to Times of India to find a story, you know you're scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Cute touch to call them FLiRTs. I guess now we know the scary-named variants weren't even a storm in a teacup they're trying the reverse psychology approach.

And, pray tell, what happened to those scarily-named variants that were going to devastate Okinawa and all the other places you were screeching about? I see even your pals at World Socialist Web Site haven't even been able to post a scare headline this whole year: https://www.wsws.org/en/topics/event/coronavirus

You are a lone voice and the pandemic is over.
 
I'll make yet another attempt:

This is what screeching panic looks like:
Save your ignorance - that has not been the case in NZ. Health authorities and experts here have been stressing the need for vaccination.\

Doesn't apply to NZ either. They're a very small minority and generally considered to be nutcases that nobody but the true morons listen to.

And you're still making that idiotic comment without any evidence. Deaths in NZ from covid have been minimal, and we record them all. You're parroting nonsense that it's killing droves of people. You have yet to provide anything more than wild speculation.

You keep crying about "minimisers" - whoever they might be - let me state yet again that panic merchants posting clear untruths about the harm of covid are as dangerous as antivaxers because you overstate the dangers like the boy who cried wolf.

Keep at it...


And this is what rational argumentation backed up by documentation looks like:
Well, if "the CDC's main web site doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page," it just must mean that the pandemic is over, mustn't it?!

The mentioned preprint study:

Graph (Figure 5) in both tweet and surveillance report of the weekly positivity (%) for SARS-CoV-2 by year (2022-23 & 2023-24), UK Health Security Agency.

As always, how this plays out remains to be seen.


The difference is conspicuous. And it is not at all difficult to master.
 
:dl:
(...)
I see even your pals at World Socialist Web Site haven't even been able to post a scare headline this whole year: https://www.wsws.org/en/topics/event/coronavirus


I notice that a favourite emotional support animal may have been discontinued.
As for my alleged pals, a helping hand with Google appears to be required.
Some people are too easily scared, so be warned!

Amid second-largest wave of COVID infections in the US, Florida’s surgeon general calls to halt mRNA vaccines (WSWS.org, Jan 8, 2024)
WHO officials warn sharply of the ongoing dangers of the COVID-19 pandemic (WSWS.org, Jan 14, 2024)
Doctors in Turkey warn of new pandemic wave (WSWS.org, Jan 23, 2024)
Massive wave of COVID infections throughout Europe (WSWS.org, Jan 25, 2024)
Data analyst Greg Travis speaks on COVID pandemic-related excess deaths in the US (WSWS.org, Feb 19, 2024)
Interview with Dr. David Brenner of Columbia University on far-UVC 222-nm and the COVID pandemic (WSWS.org, Mar 1, 2024)
Massive study confirms safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines (WSWS.org, Mar 5, 2024)
COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose major challenge for healthcare system across Canada (WSWS.org, April 3, 2024)
The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2024 US elections (WSWS.org, April 3, 2024)
Global pandemic agreement undermined by corporate interests (WSWS.org, April 17, 2024)
 
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"NOTE: As of April 13, 2024, the Coronavirus Tracker is no longer being updated due to the unfeasibility of providing statistically valid global totals, as the majority of countries have now stopped reporting. However, historical data remain accessible. Worldometer delivered the most accurate and timely global statistics to users and institutions around the world at a time when this was extremely challenging. We thank everyone who participated in this extraordinary collaborative effort."
 
Speaking of attempts, I see you made no attempt at all to defend your absurd panic over the variants as I described.


The Atheist may not be aware that he didn't describe any absurd panic. He imagined it, instead of documenting it, so I guess my attempt to explain the difference to him was in vain.
 
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"NOTE: As of April 13, 2024, the Coronavirus Tracker is no longer being updated due to the unfeasibility of providing statistically valid global totals, as the majority of countries have now stopped reporting. However, historical data remain accessible. Worldometer delivered the most accurate and timely global statistics to users and institutions around the world at a time when this was extremely challenging. We thank everyone who participated in this extraordinary collaborative effort."


I think that also goes for Our World in Data. Some countries stopped reporting more than a year ago. Others, New Zealand, for instance, changed their definition of COVID-19 deaths and thus the reported numbers, probably to look better in comparison to other countries by making the rise of the C19 death toll look less steep.
 
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The Atheist may not be aware that he didn't describe any absurd panic.

Yeah I did - all of your posts in this thread over the past 12-18 months.

The other thing I forgot to mention is how quaint it was for you to blow another of your idiotic points out of the water.

All through the past year you've been crying about mainstream media ignoring covid, yet you posted a whole load of links of mainstream sites giving coverage to the impending doom on new variant infection growth that ultimately amounted to no more than a hill of beans.

At this stage, you could comfortably hold a convention of people who care about covid in any telephone box, so please continue. As my kids would say, it's hella funny.
 
More claims and no documentation.
Even when I show The Atheist how to debunk false claims by confronting them with reality, e.g. post 786, it doesn't take. The response is just more Trumpian denial of reality.
 
That may be so in the US, but the picture in New Zealand is not so rosy. Despite a gradual decline in recent months, hospitalizations are higher than they were in Late September - early October 2022. I hope the downward trend continues.

picture.php


Note that this represents almost double the number per capita as in the US.
 
That may be so in the US, but the picture in New Zealand is not so rosy. Despite a gradual decline in recent months, hospitalizations are higher than they were in Late September - early October 2022. I hope the downward trend continues.

It's also true that the number is the lowest for six months. Whatever happened to that massive wave we were having?

Given the parlous state of NZ's GP system, I'd venture that a lot of those people could have been on paxlovid and never gone to hospital. My bet is people are waiting until they're really sick before taking action, and since virtually nobody is testing for covid any more, it's no surprise that a lot are ending up in hospital.

Still, 200 a week spread across a population of 5 million is negligible. What's that - 10 in each hospital? Not causing any issues in a highly stretched system.
 
Sounds like it is a good idea to not catch CoViD in a Victorian Hospital:

Documents obtained by ABC News under Freedom of Information laws reveal at least 6,212 patients caught COVID in hospital in 24 months — 3,890 in 2022 and 2,322 in 2023. Of those, 586 died — almost six per week, on average — with men dying at a higher rate than women (11 per cent vs 8 per cent).

Though hospital-acquired infections and deaths declined in 2023 — in line with COVID mortality trends in the broader community — the proportion of patients who died after catching the virus in hospital hardly budged, dropping from about 10 per cent in 2022 to about 9 per cent in 2023.

It's disappointing that the primary cause appears to be medical workers using pretend masks (i.e. surgical masks) and in many cases using them to mask their chins.

:(

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05...-victoria-hospitals-testing-masking/103784896
 
It's also true that the number is the lowest for six months. Whatever happened to that massive wave we were having?
Wastewater tests don't lie. The count has been gradually dropping since April, which is a relief. However it is still tracking way above reported cases by a factor of 5 or more. That means the number of actual cases is much higher than the reported case count. This is supported by the hospitalization numbers which have remained close to the peak of the latest wave. This is not an anomaly, the low number of reported cases is. As we go into winter I just hope that it doesn't cause another flareup.

Still, 200 a week spread across a population of 5 million is negligible. What's that - 10 in each hospital? Not causing any issues in a highly stretched system.
The system was stretched even before Covid. I had to wait 2 years to get a hernia operation even though it was severely affecting my ability to work. Luckily I finally got an appointment for evaluation and the doctor said I 'didn't qualify' for surgery in the public system, but managed to get it done under contract with the local private hospital.

That was in early 2018. I understand things have gotten worse since then - which is hardly surprising. The problem is I now have another hernia, but I don't want to go through that rigmarole again so I am saving up for a private operation if it gets too bad to manage.

Every hospital bed taken up by a Covid patient is one that can't be allocated to other patients. Due to its infectiousness extra precautions have to be taken. Covid patients in ICU are an even bigger strain. Most hospitals can only handle a few at a time. Staff shortages are a problem too. My own doctor spends half his time at the hospital so when I make an appointment it may be 2 weeks before I can see him.

New Zealand public health agency imposes sweeping budget cuts in hospitals
Last Friday, Health NZ said the country’s public hospitals have been told to save a total of $NZ105 million by July. The announcement was forced by media leaks revealing that 12 districts had to reduce a collective “overspend” of $80 million...

The fourteen demands include an end to double shifts and limitations on replacing sick staff. Every shift must include two people on annual leave “with minimal backfill,” to force people to use their leave before the end of the financial year. This will reduce the ballooning debt, but without adequate staffing it creates a grave threat to patient safety. Leave is often declined due to a lack of staff to cover...

Christchurch surgeon Professor Frank Frizelle recently told Stuff that the “whole pipeline” is challenged from anaesthetic technicians, to nurses, to operating space and doctors due to chronic underfunding by successive governments. “You can withdraw some services a little bit, [but] at some point you fall off the cliff. That’s where we are now.” he said...

Official figures show that in December 2023, 68,179 people were waiting longer than four months for a first specialist appointment—the number had almost doubled since September 2022—and 30,757 were waiting longer than four months for a procedure. One patient, 72-year-old Bob Menzies from south Auckland, told the New Zealand Herald on Saturday he had been waiting “in absolute agony” for over four years for knee surgery.

ASTMS executive director Sarah Dalton said the cuts will “totally” affect the frontline—already in disarray because of “massive junior doctor gaps.” “While we’re still in a system that’s underfunded, this pressure to make cuts is borderline immoral,” she declared. NZ Nurses Organisation (NZNO) president Anne Daniels told Radio NZ that measures such as clamping down on overtime were “laughable.”

And as if that wasn't bad enough...

One In Five Milk Samples From Across US Had Traces Of Bird Flu Virus, FDA Says
One of five samples of milk collected from store shelves across the country contained traces of the bird flu virus, the Food and Drug Administration said on Thursday, highlighting the extent of the issue just days after the agency said it found remnants of H5N1 in some retail milk samples...

As of Thursday night, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has detected 33 dairy cow herds with bird flu infections across eight states—Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, Michigan, Idaho, North Carolina, South Dakota and Ohio. However, the FDA’s latest findings suggest the extent of the infections could be significantly higher—something scientists and health experts have warned about.

While H5N1 has been detected in livestock, the CDC says the risk of spread to humans remains low. So far, only two cases of H5N1 infections have been reported in the U.S., including one person in Texas earlier this month and another individual in Colorado in 2022.
At least they can't blame this one on a Chinese Lab in Wuhan. But let's not forget that Covid was not supposed to be a high risk either - until it mutated into a strain that took off in humans.
 
It is obvious what Roger Ramjets means.
As obvious as it is that The Atheist prefers no precautions at all because any precaution makes it obvious that there is something to take precautions against.
It is a little like a car manufacturer celebrating that people don't wear seatbelts because wearing seatbelts makes it obvious that there is reason to take precautions against accidents. Why do you think The Atheist picks ten words out of a long post with documentation and then posts a nonsensical answer? It's a way of making it seem as if he has somehow debunked Roger Ramjets' post and arguments.
He is all for spreading COVID-19 at hospitals while pretending that everything is fine.
 
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Quite cool to see how many lies you can post in one response to a very short post of mine:

As obvious as it is that The Atheist prefers no precautions at all because any precaution makes it obvious that there is something to take precautions against.

That's the first one. I have stated many times that people are quite welcome to take precautions, and each person can decide what that involves. I have also mentioned I'm quite happy to wear a mask in areas of high likelihood of infection, not just to protect against covid, but other respiratory viruses as well.

What I (and 99,9999999999%) of people on the planet object to is clowns who think the Davos protocols are sensible, or even achievable.

He is all for spreading COVID-19 at hospitals while pretending that everything is fine.

Only two - you're losing your touch, mate!

I have never said anything of the kind.
 

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