Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[jeremyp]

GOod news for the competition ,tough.

Reminds me of Henry Ford in the early 1920's who refused to beleive that his beloved Model T was outdated and took a long time as to why Ford sales had gone into the dumper with a new company called GM putting out a more modern auto at the same price that was just plain superior to the Model T.

Yesterday's announcement had the desired effect. The share price went up in spite of a slump in revenue and profit.

I think the new strategy is a good move. Tesla desperately needs model refreshes and I think the quickest way to get there is to use existing technology rather than the new pie in the sky "unboxed" platform that probably doesn't really exist yet and will need new infrastructure when it does.

My only question as a shareholder (I'm not a shareholder, but let's pretend) would be: can Tesla hit the deadline they've set themselves? If they are saying first half of next year, I'd expect prototypes of all these new models to already exist, but if they only made the decision to change tactics when they put the new model 2 on ice, then, they've only just started designing these new models. 2026 is more realistic.

The robotaxi is a distraction. I don't expect it to ever happen.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I see Tesla is now a meme stock. Going up 10% yesterday despite posting their worst numbers in 12 years.

Seems there's still enough idiots to believe Galaxy Brain's lies about full self driving and robotaxis.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I see Tesla is now a meme stock. Going up 10% yesterday despite posting their worst numbers in 12 years.

Seems there's still enough idiots to believe Galaxy Brain's lies about full self driving and robotaxis.

 

[Darat]

Apparently Tesla's robots "could" be being sold this year and "could" be a bigger revenue maker for Tesla that EVs.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Apparently Tesla's robots "could" be being sold this year and "could" be a bigger revenue maker for Tesla that EVs.

Oh yes, robots that can walk very slowly in a pre-programmed straight line on flat ground with no obstacles in their way will be very useful and a profitable venture.

 

[jadebox]

Oh yes, robots that can walk very slowly in a pre-programmed straight line on flat ground with no obstacles in their way will be very useful and a profitable venture.

That demo was a while ago. By now the robots must have advanced to being able to turn and go in a random direction after bumping into a wall.

 

[dirtywick]

or suddenly rapidly accelerating and killing someone

 

[Darat]

That demo was a while ago. By now the robots must have advanced to being able to turn and go in a random direction after bumping into a wall.

Amazon has been trialling using "humanoid" robots: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67163680 those don't seem fast enough to me and they can't work continuously as they are self-contained so need to recharge at some point. Anyone know what market tesla is going for in regard to their humanoid robots?

 

[dirtywick]

musk says an affordable ev is coming and plans to begin production in early 2025, if not late this year, despite multiple reports to the contrary. it's interesting to me that they'd have basically less than a year to begin production and have just laid off thousands of workers in their production plants, so this doesn't seem too likely to me to be true, especially considering this is days before the first quarter earnings report and the stock has been tanking pretty hard. and his history of lying to investors. now the question is can he just lie about this? if you're not actually in the process of beginning production of a completely new model, and you tell investors that you are, is there a word for what that is?

hell, they're not even a car company anymore and calls his robots sentient

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

That demo was a while ago. By now the robots must have advanced to being able to turn and go in a random direction after bumping into a wall.

Their latest demos tend to be of sorting montages and are suspiciously human in motions, i.e. it's likely somebody in a form of a haptic suit guidin the robot. Look at the way the robots in the videos tilt their heads and the head follows the movement of the hands as if given binocular vision (instead of the 360° field of view such robots normally have).

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

musk says an affordable ev is coming and plans to begin production in early 2025, if not late this year, despite multiple reports to the contrary. it's interesting to me that they'd have basically less than a year to begin production and have just laid off thousands of workers in their production plants, so this doesn't seem too likely to me to be true, especially considering this is days before the first quarter earnings report and the stock has been tanking pretty hard. and his history of lying to investors. now the question is can he just lie about this? if you're not actually in the process of beginning production of a completely new model, and you tell investors that you are, is there a word for what that is?

hell, they're not even a car company anymore and calls his robots sentient

He's been lying about his other models in talks to incestors for years, with the truth buried deep in the prospectuses where nobody reads. As long as the prospectus gives a reasonably accurate summation somewhere, Galaxy Brain is free to lie in public.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Tesla has an established track record of delivering later than announced and at much higher cost.
There a plenty of bridges to buy for those who think that Tesla can quickly developed and produce an EV that can compete with China on price.

 

[theprestige]

Tesla has an established track record of delivering later than announced and t much higher cost.
There a plenty of bridges to buy for those who think that Tesla can quickly developed and produce an EV that can compete with China on price.

Why would Tesla want to compete with China on price? Why would anyone want to compete with China on price?

If you want the lowest-priced EV, by all means, buy Chinese.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Why would Tesla want to compete with China on price? Why would anyone want to compete with China on price?

If you want the lowest-priced EV, by all means, buy Chinese.

Competing on price is not just being cheaper - just being widely affordable is competing on price, when current Teslas are absolutely not.

Btw, by all accounts, Chinese EVs are way better value for money than Teslas.

 

[jeremyp]

Why would Tesla want to compete with China on price? Why would anyone want to compete with China on price?

If you want the lowest-priced EV, by all means, buy Chinese.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that at all. Plenty of European / American companies have chosen not to compete at the cheap end of the market: BMW, Jaguar, Apple (for phones and computers) etc. There are two problems for Tesla in doing that.

The first is that their expensive products look cheap. If you claim to be competing at the quality end of the market, it's a bad thing if the cover of your accelerator pedal can fall off, even if it weren't a safety hazard. Tesla's quality control would be completely unacceptable for any luxury car manufacturer. Their interiors look pretty cheap too.

The second problem is that Tesla and Musk have promised huge growth over the next few years. The outrageous share price is partly based on that. There is absolutely no way to deliver that growth without having some success in the volume end of the market.

 

[Checkmite]

now the question is can he just lie about this?

Yes; that's what he's been doing all along. Years ago Musk promised to build an underground mass people-mover in Las Vegas and ended up delivering - vastly late and over-budget - a tunnel where a dozen or so Teslas carry 2 to 4 people at a time slowly from the "underground station" below a hotel to the driveway at the front of the hotel.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

As usual in a financial market overburdened with liquid assets, asset managers have to put the money somewhere , and Tesla benefits from being the biggest EV maker that doesn't have the complication of being Chinese.
When there is no competition, investment becomes stupid.

 

[lobosrul5]

Why would Tesla want to compete with China on price? Why would anyone want to compete with China on price?

If you want the lowest-priced EV, by all means, buy Chinese.

Interestingly, I google'd to double check my knowledge, thinking that no Chinese Ev's are even sold within the USA, when I was going to question on what you mean by compete. Did you just mean within the USA? Or in China, since Tesla does operate in China.

And I got this, news from today:

April 24 (Reuters) - A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.
The EX30 from Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST), opens new tab, the Swedish luxury brand owned by China's Geely (GEELY.UL) , foreshadows the fierce competitive threat U.S. automakers could face from Chinese EV manufacturers that have surged far ahead of global rivals, especially on affordability.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ap-chinese-ev-us-shores-trade-war-2024-04-24/

The assumption that Chinese EV's can only be cheaper and not as good as Tesla's may be faulty. Not saying IT IS, but it might be soon.

ETA: it seems my prediction on TSLA is more or less coming true. For their share price to make any sense whatsoever they need to absolutely dominate the world EV market. Between them actually getting better, and various nations protecting their own car industries, other manufacturer are highly likely to catch up.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I see Tesla is now a meme stock. Going up 10% yesterday despite posting their worst numbers in 12 years.

Evidence?

12 years ago Tesla stock was worth $2, 17% down from a month earlier. It's now $170, 85 times higher (+8,400%).

Tesla launched the Model S on June 22, 2012 - less than 12 years ago. Before that they were burning cash and all the pundits were predicting failure. Since then the pundits have continued to predict failure, even as Tesla grew at a staggering pace and the Model Y became the best selling car model (of any type) in the World - a result that even the most bullish investors didn't expect, and people like you accused Musk of 'lying' about when he suggested it just might happen.

But investors have good reason to be nervous. Tesla got where it is today by constantly innovating and taking big risks. There's always a chance they will fail. OTOH if they don't fail then they will probably grow even more, and the stock price will reflect that. That doesn't make it a 'meme' stock - it means the price is linked to how well they do, as it should. The stock price went up because investors figure Tesla's new plans will be good for the company. That's not responding to a 'meme', it's making an informed decision.

Seems there's still enough idiots to believe Galaxy Brain's lies about full self driving and robotaxis.

Every time you use those words we can simply ignore what you say. It's childish. How old are you, 6?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Interestingly, I google'd to double check my knowledge, thinking that no Chinese Ev's are even sold within the USA, when I was going to question on what you mean by compete. Did you just mean within the USA? Or in China, since Tesla does operate in China.

And I got this, news from today:

April 24 (Reuters) - A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.

Except the US government is looking at slapping huge tariffs on Chinese EVs, and dealer margins will raise the price even more. There are even calls to ban them outright, on the basis that they are spying devices. Then there's the small matter of Tesla's charging network and service centers in the US. Who is going to buy a Chinese EV, even for $8000 less, if the charging infrastructure sucks and they can't get it serviced?

The assumption that Chinese EV's can only be cheaper and not as good as Tesla's may be faulty. Not saying IT IS, but it might be soon.

Chinese cars are definitely getting better - or at least the ones we are seeing here are. But even the best made car is junk if something goes wrong and it can't be repaired. BYD for example has been receiving a lot of flack for parts taking ages to get sent from China.

ETA: it seems my prediction on TSLA is more or less coming true. For their share price to make any sense whatsoever they need to absolutely dominate the world EV market. Between them actually getting better, and various nations protecting their own car industries, other manufacturer are highly likely to catch up.

Tesla knows that, and they are preparing for it. That's why they are planning on making cheaper models on existing production lines while they build the factories for their really cheap cars.

I don't know if they will manage to maintain their position as a major player in the EV market, but I'm inclined to trust that they know what they are doing better than the average pundit.

The only thing I'm worried about about is Musk's robotaxi plan. Hopefully they can have a drive-by-wire steering wheel quickly added and sold as a proper car. I think Musk is right about the future of personal transport, and if anyone can do it Tesla can. I just wonder if it's worth risking everything to produce something the World may not be ready for. OTOH many other companies are also working them. Whoever gets there first stands to make a mint. Runners up not so much.

BTW I just started watching the TV show 'Picard', and noticed that in this future San Francisco has no cars! They just have hoops that people walk through to transport from one place to another. Makes perfect sense. Why go to all the hassle and expense of owning and driving a personal motor vehicle when you have a better way?