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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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Well the only working for of peacekeeping is to literally destroy Russia to rubble. That is a bit unrealistic at the moment though. I guess the only chance is to support Ukraine, until Putin dies, one way or another, and then we'll see.
 
theprestige said:
NATO has already expanded along Russia's border, with Finland joining the alliance.
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Having Finland join NATO is far, far worse for Russia than if Ukraine had joined. And Ukraine was unlikely to join prior to the Russian invasion. Not that Ukraine didn't want to join, but NATO previously had little interest in bringing them in. So even if Ukraine were to simply surrender, and Russia occupied it in full with no further resistance, the whole thing is still a loss in terms of NATO expansion.
 
According to ISW:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russia sees the West as the weak link in the system and are working to undermine Western support for Ukraine whilst at the same time preparing for long attritional war in Ukraine.

Unsurprisingly, Russia is attempting to indoctrinate the youth in the occupied territories to be fed into the meat grinder in due course.

Meanwhile Russia continue to throw men and materiel into the grinder on the Eastern front. There are Russian claims of gains not substantiated by independent sources.
 
Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, - CNN
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and yet, they just keep coming...

“Russia seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia the advantage despite Russian losses and persistent shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment,”
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So, Russia believes there's still a path to some sort of advantage, while not actually being the quick victory they originally envisioned.

Ziggurat said:
Having Finland join NATO is far, far worse for Russia than if Ukraine had joined. And Ukraine was unlikely to join prior to the Russian invasion. Not that Ukraine didn't want to join, but NATO previously had little interest in bringing them in. So even if Ukraine were to simply surrender, and Russia occupied it in full with no further resistance, the whole thing is still a loss in terms of NATO expansion.
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That's cold comfort to Ukraine and anyone else Russia may be beligerent toward.

Russia may have lost, but it is still Ukraine's war to lose.
 
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The Don said:
Russia sees the West as the weak link in the system and are working to undermine Western support for Ukraine whilst at the same time preparing for long attritional war in Ukraine.
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I think they have identified the weak spot well enough.

Do anybody know if there has been any Western attempts to undermine Russian resolve?
 
steenkh said:
Do anybody know if there has been any Western attempts to undermine Russian resolve?
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For years, the West seems to think that's the role of sanctions.

I don't know of any active propaganda/destabilizing ops inside Russia (remember, Russia claims that any set back, even obvious facepalming own goals, are Western destabilizing ops). Certainly, Western intelligence agencies haven't communicated such to me, and you think they would have, by now!
 
Not sure it's that great news for North Korea either, though. I'm pretty sure their own power boner was also based on having the mightiest army and equipment in the world, and lots of it. Everyone else learning that yeah, they couldn't hit the side of a barn from inside, because they just rewarded whoever cut the most corners to finish the 5 year plan in 4 years, might not actually be the kind of publicity they were hoping for. I expect a few factory directors to be executed as enemies of the people / imperialist agents, is all I'm saying :p

Mind you, that's kinda funny too. Quoth Nelson Muntz: "Haw Haw!" :p
 
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Jimbo07 said:
That's cold comfort to Ukraine and anyone else Russia may be beligerent toward.
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I suspect it's not cold comfort to the Baltic states. It probably means quite a lot to them. But yes, it doesn't do Ukraine much good.

Russia may have lost, but it is still Ukraine's war to lose.
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Absolutely. It's very easy for everyone in a war to lose, and a Russian loss isn't automatically a Ukrainian win.

I think what Ukraine would consider a win is retaking all their territory followed by an end to the fighting. I think that's achievable but not guaranteed, but it probably won't happen soon.
 
Ziggurat said:
....a Russian loss isn't automatically a Ukrainian win.
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I think that the War of 1812 ended 119 years ago and we're still debating who "won".

I think this war may end up the say way, no clear winners or losers. Donbass and Crimea will be the new Kashmir.

But even that is only if Biden gets re-elected. American politics is so critical to this war. No matter what happens, the Republican party will spend the next 11 months doing everything it can to reduce war supplies going from the U.S. to Ukraine. Many American conservatives (probably a strong majority) support Ukraine but the party that represents them doesn't.

At least Poland seems solid. I have heard mixed analysis of Donald Tusk, but he does at least seem strongly Pro-Ukraine. Pro-NATO, Pro-EU, and Anti-Russia. But Poland has already donated about as much legacy stock as it can.
 
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HansMustermann said:
....North Korea.... Everyone else learning that yeah, they couldn't hit the side of a barn from inside,
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That part was well known for years. The concern is that with Seoul so close to the border, accuracy would not be needed to pound the city and create panic.
 
Italy had the same problem in WW2.
Corner cutting, corruption and poor quality control meant their naval shells were lucky to land in the same basin of the Med as their targets.
 
In regard to U.S. plans of hosting missile defense shield bases in the country, Tusk hinted skepticism toward the project, saying that their presence could potentially increase security risks from Russia, and rejected U.S. offers in early July 2008.[47] By August, however, Tusk relented, and supported the missile shield, declaring: "We have achieved the main goal. It means our countries, Poland and the United States will be more secure."
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Tusk

Under his cabinet article there is an AP news story
“I can no longer listen to some European politicians and those from other Western countries who say they are tired of the situation in Ukraine,” Tusk said. “They say to President Zelenskyy’s face that they no longer have the strength, that they are exhausted.”

In his speech, Tusk stressed that his country on NATO’s eastern flank would honor its obligations as a Western ally.
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https://apnews.com/article/poland-new-government-tusk-d4c7cd71e983440b5a71e08236eaf4fc
 
crescent said:
I think that the War of 1812 ended 119 years ago and we're still debating who "won".

I think this war may end up the say way, no clear winners or losers. Donbass and Crimea will be the new Kashmir.

But even that is only if Biden gets re-elected. American politics is so critical to this war. No matter what happens, the Republican party will spend the next 11 months doing everything it can to reduce war supplies going from the U.S. to Ukraine. Many American conservatives (probably a strong majority) support Ukraine but the party that represents them doesn't.

At least Poland seems solid. I have heard mixed analysis of Donald Tusk, but he does at least seem strongly Pro-Ukraine. Pro-NATO, Pro-EU, and Anti-Russia. But Poland has already donated about as much legacy stock as it can.
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Are you sure?
 
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