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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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Russia is trying to recruit foreign migrants, detained in a recent sweep at its border with Finland, for its war in Ukraine.

The BBC has seen evidence of several cases in which foreigners were rushed into a military camp on the border with Ukraine, days after they were picked up for breaching immigration laws.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67647379
 
Very similar story about North Korean artillery shells in Defence Express.

The investigation of five randomly selected charges with the same marking found that they all had different powders, and the powder bundles had different weights. Some charges lacked a de-copper: a lead wire meant to reduce copper buildup inside the barrel due to the repeated use of shells with a copper driving band. Additionally, some of the shells had traces indicating hermetic lids were opened.
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It seems they don't even have firing tables for the different rounds.
As an ex RN Weapons Engineering Mechanician I am appalled.

Reading up on NDT-3 it's a very old and crude propellant. Modern propellants have a decoppering agent in the mix and have a much more consistent burn.
Dinitrotoluene as a burn rate modifier isn't used modern formulations because of it's toxicity and carcinogenic nature.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/..._artillery_shells_russians_complain-8818.html
 
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theprestige said:
It seems pretty clear to me that Russia has already lost.

Discounting rhetoric and propaganda, some of the stated and unstated strategic goals of this invasion:

- Demilitarization of Ukraine
- Subjugation of Ukraine as a vassal state
- Installation of a puppet regime in Kyiv
- Unfettered access to Ukraine's natural resources
- The freedom of Sevastopol
- Blocking the spread of NATO
- Blocking Ukraine's entry to the EU

All of these are now off the table. Some of them permanently. In addition to these failed objectives, Russia has also suffered significant strategic losses demographically, economically, commercially, and diplomatically. These will take decades to recover from, if recovery is even possible. And these losses remain even if Ukraine fails to drive Russia out of its territory in the next few years.

Like steenkh says, Putin can say whatever he wants about having achieved victory in Ukraine, but by any important measure I think it's clear this invasion has already been a defeat for his regime and his country.
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No they are not. Russia is still fighting. If the Ukraine army collapses first, all of your listed points will probably happen.
 
jeremyp said:
No they are not. Russia is still fighting. If the Ukraine army collapses first, all of your listed points will probably happen.
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NATO has already expanded along Russia's border, with Finland joining the alliance. Sweden is also in the process of joining. Sweden was already a de facto member of NATO, and Ukraine is on the same path to partnership if not outright membership. That genie isn't going back in the bottle, even if the Ukrainian army collapses entire, which is unlikely.
 
Someone this morning on radio suggested that if the funds belonging to the Oligarchs that were frozen, were released to the Ukraine, it would give them about $350billion, which would be a nice compensation, should Trump win the election, and pull the plug on Ukraine support.

Cameron has already suggested this.
 
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wobs said:
Someone this morning on radio suggested that if the funds belonging to the Oligarchs that were frozen, were released to the Ukraine, it would give them about $350billion, which would be a nice compensation, should Trump win the election, and pull the plug on Ukraine support.

Cameron has already suggested this.
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I would suggest including any donations made by Russian oligarchs or their proxies to UK politicians over the last thirty years in the amount to be given to Ukraine. It'd be nice to see Call me Dave put his hands in his pockets for once.
 
Yesterday Russia conducted another unsuccessful assault on the Marines in the bridgehead on Kherson’s left bank on Dec. 9, attacking the village of Krynky.


10 out of 11 pieces of Russian equipment were destroyed, including four out of five tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and four armored personnel carriers (APCs).

In addition, 28 of the 31 unmanned aerial vehicles detected that day were shot down.
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https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-marines-fend-off-russian-164100271.html


Also

Ukrainian troops on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are approaching one of the highways connecting Crimea and Melitopol,

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrain...-counter-offensive-gains-ground-50371328.html
 
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wobs said:
Someone this morning on radio suggested that if the funds belonging to the Oligarchs that were frozen, were released to the Ukraine, it would give them about $350billion, which would be a nice compensation, should Trump win the election, and pull the plug on Ukraine support.

Cameron has already suggested this.
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Trump would block this unless he got a significant chunk of the funds personally.
 
Western ammo shortages aren't a problem due to Trump in 2025, or Congress in 2024. They're happening now:

Ukraine ammo shortage

Even in the best case that Western support actually continues, Western supply isn't keeping up. That's the best case, and it seems like support is already waning:

Newly committed aid to Ukraine reached a "new low" between August and October, with a 90% drop compared to the same period in 2022, according to a report compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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There have been claims that it's immoral to keep arming Ukraine, because it fosters anger between the two keeps the fighting going. That's wrong. What is immoral is to keep arming Ukraine, because it fosters anger between the two, then suddenly cut them off. Disarming only one side in an already years-long conflict is not peacebuilding. It's hanging one side out dry in such a disgusting way as to almost become complicit in any ensuing genocide.
 
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