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Cont: The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VI

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Of the total number of people on board:

Integral Risk

If we include the nine 'missing' Estonians it is 49% of the crew and staff.

In addition, the passengers without tickets, who would include small children travelling with family and staff friends and relatives travelling free, were not included in the passenger lists so for passenger victims, the numbers are almost certainly higher.

As you would expect. Most passengers would be asleep and in their cabins.
Passengers tend not to have any training on what to do if a ship sinks.
As you state, passengers include small children and old people.
 
It is a good job I don't believe in 'coincidence' or 'conspiracy theory'.


So you don't believe in solar or lunar eclipses?

As for your not believing in conspiracy theories, as we've discussed ad nauseam, the evidence in this thread demonstrates that you do, whether you choose to admit it or not.
 
Astounding. Do another:

I think it's a bit of a coincidence that the ship's crew disproportionately survived compared to passengers when the only advantage they had was familiarity with the ship and it's alarms and evacuation procedures and lifeboats and being generally young and fit and maybe having survival suits. Can you use your skills to allay my suspicions?

Usually one crew member is assigned to each boat or raft,
 
I can only think of two occasions in recent years when I was knocked sideways by what appeared to be 'an amazing coincidence'.


However, when a group of people arrange to meet at midday at the V&A, it really is not a coincidence if they all converge at that spot at that time.

If something is preplanned, it may look like a coincidence to those not aware of the preplanning.

Integral Risk

So, in the case of the MV Estonia, the disaster happened:

  • Swedish midnight
  • Midpoint of its journey, within a 21 nm margin
  • Just 22' past the 59° international waters boundary.
  • Equally equidistant between Helsinki, Tallinn and Stockholm.
  • At the halfway point of its journey to within a quarter of an hour, temporally.
  • There was a communications blackout between 01:00 and 01:58.
  • The Mayday should have come from the bridge and the captain.
  • In the case of electrics being down, a battery-powered system should have kicked in.
  • The Mayday received by MV Mariella at maximum level on their side was not until 01:21.
  • Capn. Thoresson had the impression it was not Ainsalu's (fourth mate) first attempt to Mayday.
  • When Silja Europa took over, Second Capn Seppanen, had the impression Estonia could not hear him.
  • When Ainsalu realised that Mayday convention was to give location, he said 'blackout'.
  • Third mate Tammes then took over in a second Mayday, now taken over by Europa, with the coordinates.
  • But Tammes' coordinates were 8" out meaning it was out by several kilometres, or the Mayday reception was so poor Seppanen could not pick it up.
  • Tammes was cut off at 01:24.
  • Capn Thoresson could not get through to Turku MRCC.
  • Thoresson had to look up Turku MRCC landline number instead of by radio or their NMT.
  • Neither of the two HRU-triggered activated automatic buoys gave off a signal when submerged.
  • Turku MRCC could not make contact with Mariehamn, Ålands, until 01:44.
  • Helsinki Radio and Finland Radio could not get through to MRCC Stockholm until 01:58. It could not get the exact location until 01:44.
  • Complete communications blackout for an hour, from when the bow visor fell off, 01:02 to 01:48, when MV Estonia went off the radar, to when MRCC finally got the Mayday.
  • MV Estonia hit the seabed at 01:54 and there was no detritus or flotsam for Silja Europa Capn Mäkelä to see when he got there.
  • Stockholm MRCC first heard of something happening via a message from a truck driver.

Preplanned operation or 'just an accident with a lot of coincidences'?

The buoys were not automatic activation.

What, and how much extra ' detritus and flotsam' do you think there should have been?

Why is this presumed lack suspicious?

Do you think someone went round the ship nailing everything down before it sank?
 
What, and how much extra ' detritus and flotsam' do you think there should have been?

Why is this presumed lack suspicious?

Do you think someone went round the ship nailing everything down before it sank?


Perhaps there was no flotsam because the Swedish government sank the ship by encasing it in concrete.
 
Apart from rafts, life jackets and rings or boats I can't think what else she would expect and all of those items were seen and recovered.
 
If we assume a fantastical conspiracy theory actually happened then we can change the real numbers to make them look a bit more suspicious and support our conspiracy theory.

Circular argument is circular.

However if you wish us to regard it as suspicious that ship's crew disproportionately survived (even excluding the fantasy nine) are you now suggesting the whole crew were 'in on it'?

Are you saying the whole ship's company decided to sink themselves at night in a storm to get revenge on people transporting pinched black market Soviet electronic parts in a Volvo estate car who happened to use their ferry for part of the journey?

No, I was simply refuting a poster who scoffed at the idea that sabotage, if that was what it was, could have been an inside job. As we saw, the crew had little problem in fleeing the sinking ship, even those on deck 0 Engine Room. A saboteur would have had a massive head start and away before you could say, bow visor.

It would not necessarily have anything to do with the ship's company other than that it consented to let Sweden customs wave through smuggled ex-Soviet stuff on a passenger ferry. When we say 'ferry' we are not talking about a cargo-style boat that easily overturns, we are talking about a proper passenger cruise ship.

The bow visor is a red herring. You can see pictures of these passenger ferries cruising into port with their visors up for the whole journey. The two car decks are well above sea level /water level and whilst it is not nice to have one's vehicle drenched with sea water, the decks are designed so that any water is drained away by scuppers, of which MV Estonia's car deck had plenty of scuppers. All ships can expect to have their decks splashed with foamy brine without sinking. After the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster, ti became mandatory to ensure the bow visor was down (the Herald of Free Enterpise did not have a bow visor system). The Atlantic lock at the bottom is merely an accessory to ensure the thing is locked. The true locks are via the bushings at the side of the bow visor. In addition, it was mandated that the car ramp should be viewable from the bridge and engine room (as ti was, together with cctv at the centre of the car deck) and that a lights system should tell the bridge whether or not it was locked, with an alert if it was 'red'. So whilst everyone is fixating on the bow visor, the JAIC cleverly overlooked the issues of cargo, communications problems and smuggling.

One of the JAIC's main witnesses, whom it quotes at length in its report, is a convicted drug smuggler. Criminals involved in serious organised crime are not renowned for being transparent and truthful. Silver Linde claims he asked the girl on reception on Deck 5 to do this and that and that he himself was here and there helping the passengers, yet a witness saw him sitting in a bar instead of doing his watch.

If you want to know how ugly serious organised crime smuggling can become between rival gangs (or even rival states?) just cast your eye over to Mexico, Columbia or El Salvador. Pity any innocent bystander who comes between their mafia-style warfare.

The Swedish prosecutor opened a book yet he shut down his enquiries. Why? No-one has been brought to justice. Or have they?

Why are the public not being given the full facts but instead an anodyne story of a bow visor that fell off because of a few strong waves?
 
You cannot tell the difference between my reporting current affairs - (the issue of the submarine is a theory by a couple of eminent persons [physics professors and a state prosecutor]and also one eyewitness, who believes he saw it sliding away [this guy is a diplomat]) and nuclear waste is indeed a recognised problem - and conspiracy theory. Caesium, for example, is worth something like €40,000 per kilogram, on the black market; look up the prices of other leftover material from the decommissioned nuclear base at Paldiski, such as Uranium 137 and maybe you can understand why these items were being smuggled in black market Estonia.

Likewise, smuggled materials being waved through customs at Stockholm, coming off the ferry MV Estonia, is not my theory, this is an actual news item.

Learn to differentiate news items and current affairs from abstract issues.

Gibberish.

Can nuclear waste melt steel, yes or no?
 
No. The Finnish sense of humour is very similar to the British. Hikipedia is like PRIVATE EYE. It may seem to make light of social issues but what it is really poking fun it is the media that reports it and the pompous asses trying to cover their backs spouting nonsense. Americans have never really understood this humour.

They were clearly taking the piss with a joke 'theory' that you swallowed hook line and sinker.
 
The buoys were not automatic activation.

What, and how much extra ' detritus and flotsam' do you think there should have been?

Why is this presumed lack suspicious?

Do you think someone went round the ship nailing everything down before it sank?

Take the Titanic. It split in two, It took up to four hours to sink.

On April 15, 1912, during her maiden voyage, the Titanic sank after colliding with an iceberg, killing 1502 out of 2224 passengers and crew. Translated 32% survival rate. One of the reasons that the shipwreck led to such loss of life was that there were not enough lifeboats for the passengers and crew.
kaggle


Compare and contrast to the Estonia survival rate: 137 out of apx 1052. Half that of the Titanic, yet only 0.34% of its parts were missing. The pointy bit at the end, which is normally of no particular consequence, as it was not unusual for such a vessel to sail with the visor open.
 
The buoys were not automatic activation.

What, and how much extra ' detritus and flotsam' do you think there should have been?

Why is this presumed lack suspicious?

Do you think someone went round the ship nailing everything down before it sank?

I also like how before it was 'military precision', but now she is adding a tolerance range that she arbitrarily assigned.
 
Of the total number of people on board:

Integral Risk


As we've discussed, and the article notes, being a young, vigorous male greatly increased one's chances of survival.

If we include the nine 'missing' Estonians it is 49% of the crew and staff.


Assumes facts not in evidence.

In addition, the passengers without tickets, who would include small children travelling with family and staff friends and relatives travelling free, were not included in the passenger lists so for passenger victims, the numbers are almost certainly higher.


You've dodged this question before, Vixen, so I'll re-pose it and ask that you kindly give me a straight answer this time: How is it that 59% of the crew of the Empress of Ireland survived, but only 20.5% of the passengers did? (source)
 
As has already been pointed out, the ship came to grief at a particular time and a particular location and some proportion of the distance through its voyage and at some or other distance from a selection of cities.

If you pick any one of these to be symbolically significant and thereby to indicate a deliberate selection, then all of the rest are inevitably coincidences.

Vixen's list proves she can't grasp coincidences.
 
Apart from rafts, life jackets and rings or boats I can't think what else she would expect and all of those items were seen and recovered.

Can I refer you to the M/S Jan Heweliusz car ferry disaster, a Norwegian vessel that was Polish-owned.

It was in hurricane force winds of up to 50 m/s, a far more severe storm than the Estonia's.

At 04:10 on 14 January 1993, the ship started listing in hurricane-force winds, estimated at 180 kilometres per hour (50 m/s). It capsized at 05:12. The waves were up to 6 metres high and ferries in the nearby port of Sassnitz had been cancelled.
wiki

It took over eight hours to sink despite being in waters on 27m deep and having been in 28 other incidents, including crashes with fishing boats and a fire. It had been in a much more sorry state than the MV Estonia, which was only 14 years old as compared to the MS Jan Heweliusz being eight years older.

People concentrate on the 'terrible storm' that afflicted the Estonia and about how incredibly unseaworthy she was meant to be and the dreadful design of the bow visor. But this all detracts from what we are not being told.
 
...The pointy bit at the end, which is normally of no particular consequence, as it was not unusual for such a vessel to sail with the visor open.

This is a new low, even for this thread. Vixen appears to have seen pictures of ferries manoeuvring in harbour with their visors raised, therefore the pointy bit is an optional extra when plunging through stormy waves in the open sea. She's just not even trying now.
 
As we've discussed, and the article notes, being a young, vigorous male greatly increased one's chances of survival.




Assumes facts not in evidence.




You've dodged this question before, Vixen, so I'll re-pose it and ask that you kindly give me a straight answer this time: How is it that 59% of the crew of the Empress of Ireland survived, but only 20.5% of the passengers did? (source)


The Empress of Ireland sank in fourteen minutes because it was in a collision:

At 01:56 local time Storstad crashed into Empress of Ireland's starboard side at around midships. Storstad remained afloat, but Empress of Ireland was severely damaged. A gaping hole in her side caused the lower decks to flood at a rate alarming to the crew.

It took place in the early hours.

There were only 465 survivors: 4 children (of 138), 41 women (of 310), 172 men (of 609), and 248 crew (of 420). The fact that most passengers were asleep at the time of the sinking (most not even awakened by the collision) also contributed to the loss of life when they were drowned in their cabins, most of them from the starboard side where the collision happened.
wiki

Yes, plenty of people may have retired for the night on Estonia but plenty were still up and about and still awake, enough to quickly get dressed.

The crew were out of there because they knew where the life-saving equipment was and they did not hang around.

Question for you: Why did the MV Estonia sink so fast?
 
No. The Finnish sense of humour is very similar to the British. Hikipedia is like PRIVATE EYE. It may seem to make light of social issues but what it is really poking fun it is the media that reports it and the pompous asses trying to cover their backs spouting nonsense. Americans have never really understood this humour.


We understood the humor of your 15 kg bow visor.

But it's true that, by spouting that nonsense, you were really poking fun at the source of that nonsense.
 
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People concentrate on the 'terrible storm' that afflicted the Estonia and about how incredibly unseaworthy she was meant to be and the dreadful design of the bow visor. But this all detracts from what we are not being told.

Hyperbole. People appreciate this was a faily typical sort of storm and in what regards the Estonia was unfit to sail as she did in such conditions and how the design of the visor was not up to the job demanded of it.

You're only annoyed these mundane facts detract from the exciting fairy tale version you want to push.
 
I bet I can explain it. You and your son are of that generation who were given traditional names (biblical or celtic-derived), often named after a grandparent, and thus your name and your son's name aren't particularly inventive as is the modern trend. Perhaps even a name popular in Victorian times, such as Edna, Iris, Maud, Rupert, Sebastian, Wilfred, etc. Your Dutch neighbours didn't give their dogs traditional names such as Prince, Spot, Buster or Buddy, but instead, having watched numerous US tv films and shows, gave them names such as 'Teddy and Maggie' or 'Sam and Daisy'. Would I be on the right path? If your name is something like Chardonnay and your son, River, and the Dutch neighbour's dogs' name were the same, then that would be spooky <sfx theme from the Twilight Zone>, I grant you that.

While my name is biblical, my son's is not. His name is the far less common of the two. But all of this is just aiming at establishing the probability of choosing these two names. You can find out the probability that an American male was born with each of these names and then multiply them to discover the odds that two American males have these names.

Using this site, we can find that the probability that two American babies born in the same decade we lived in the Netherlands have his name and my name is about one in 10 million. Of course, the odds that two Dutch dogs have these names is far, far less.

So the odds are very slim that this arrangement would occur.

The fact is, most things that people call 'a coincidence' can be explained by simple probability theory. For example, two people in a crowded room with the same birthday is actually a quite common and mundane experience.

Of course, it's a matter of probabilities. Any particular unlikely occurrence that we find noteworthy for some reason is a coincidence. Because there are so many possible coincidences at any moment, the odds that no coincidence occurs are very low.

But that is to say that OF COURSE coincidences occur. That's rather different than saying there are no coincidences.

Anyway, this is a bit of a tangent and I don't care to chase down this track very far. It's just that people who claim not to believe in coincidences have always confused me. It is a ridiculous stance.
 
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