You don't think Russia would commit 'mass murder'? It thought nothing of killing eight Swedish airmen in the 1950's whom they believed were spying. It could be said that those thousand or so passengers were being used as a human shield if it was hoped by the military that the smuggling could not be stopped by aggressive means. The idea that an enemy state doesn't mind spying and smuggling seems terribly naive.
Again, you need to show that there was anything being smuggled on the Estonia in the first place, before you take off on yet another flight of fancy.