Cont: The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VI

[Mojo]

You dismiss the maritime expert skills of Asser Koivisto who presented to the JAIC in 1995 how the Estonia Kannad 406F EPIRB's worked.

Here in Finland we have once a year what is called 'Jealousy Day' because despite the usual tight privacy laws, once a year the government's Tax Office releases the details of every taxpayer and how much tax they earned. This gives people the opportunity to see how much better paid everybody else seems to be, which, of course, is an illusion because papers tend to concentrate on the top 5% or so. Anyway, here is Asser Koivisto's public domain tax return of the Year 2021, as per the Tax Office:

https://verokone.hs.fi/henkilo/1950Koivisto Asser Joel

Do you really think this is a fool talking? So you can either opt for the word of someone who supplies the Finnish Navy with maritime surveillance systems or you can rely on a random person on the internet on an obscure forum who says he recently bought an EPIRB for his boat.

I think you may have invented a new informal fallacy.

 

[Vixen]

No, you don't understand what a final report is. The final report presents the findings. The supplementary material details the investigation.

All you have is a statement by a journalist writing in 2020 claiming that a report was written in 1995 about the EPIRBs by someone who is not a subject-matter expert, and now that report cannot be found. This is more parsimoniously explained by such a report never having existed.

You seem to rely very heavily on news reports rather than primary sources. Why is that?

Not all documents are available to the public. Only those deemed relevant to the report are in the archives. The JAIC Report deals in a narrative explanation of the bow visor and car ramp falling off due to wave action and by computer modelling using the free surface theories emanating from a textbook.

Question for you: why doesn't the JAIC mention anywhere at all the breach in the hull? The vessel was near face down. It would surely have been visible to skilled navy divers x many.

A massive omission, ne c'est pas?

 

[Mojo]

Question for you: why doesn't the JAIC mention anywhere at all the breach in the hull?

Try looking at the previous discussions of this.

 

[JayUtah]

Not all documents are available to the public.

You're still misinterpreting the intent of the final report.

You have one journalist writing 25 years after the fact claiming a report was written in 1995, but is now apparently lost, on a subject not within the purported writer's expertise. Isn't it more likely that the journalist is confused than that all the other improbable things happened?

Question for you: why doesn't the JAIC mention anywhere at all the breach in the hull?

Asked and answered many times. Don't change the subject.

 

[JayUtah]

The JAIC Report deals in a narrative explanation of the bow visor and car ramp falling off due to wave action and by computer modelling using the free surface theories emanating from a textbook.

Yes, that's how a final accident investigation report is properly presented. I'm not sure what your point is regarding computer modeling, free-surface fluid dynamics, or textbooks. Care to elaborate?

 

[Vixen]

He founded a company that makes navigational equipment, not emergency beacons.



And you say this from your vast experience having started and operated engineering companies?



Or you need to be able to coordinate those who have capital and those who have ideas and skills. How many engineering companies have you founded?

Here's his range here: https://www.navielektro.fi/

Hardly a market barrow boy or a dilettante like Elon Musk.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Here's his range here: https://www.navielektro.fi/

Hardly a market barrow boy or a dilettante like Elon Musk.

Stop accusing your interlocutors of making arguments they never made. No one accused him of being a "barrow boy" or a "dilettante". All people have said is he isn't an expert on emergency beacons. Because he isn't.

 

[JayUtah]

Here's his range here: https://www.navielektro.fi/

I'm familiar with his company and his c.v., as was made evident in the previous set of posts from Chapter III of this thread. His company does not make EPIRBs or any other kind of emergency locator beacon. His personal experience does not indicate any operational maritime activity.

No one is doubting his skill, competence, and success in other ways. He simply is not an expert on EPIRBs. Therefore the claim by a journalist writing 25 years after the fact, alleging an improbable thing and excusing the lack of evidence by further allegations of mysterious disappearance are not credible.

 

[Vixen]

Yes, that's how a final accident investigation report is properly presented. I'm not sure what your point is regarding computer modeling, free-surface fluid dynamics, or textbooks. Care to elaborate?

Massive elephant in the room? You know, the 21m x 5m gash in the hull...?


That was a bit of an unfortunate oversight, eh? Rather like describing 9/11 as a minor cooking incident in the kitchen where the tea boy was making tea. Nothing to see here! Just a faulty cable on the kettle that was of poor design and hadn't been maintained properly. Plus, the weather was very bad.

 

[JayUtah]

Massive elephant in the room?

Stop blabbering and answer the question. Please elaborate your point regarding computer modeling, free-surface fluid dynamics, or textbooks.

 

[Vixen]

I'm familiar with his company and his c.v., as was made evident in the previous set of posts from Chapter III of this thread. His company does not make EPIRBs or any other kind of emergency locator beacon. His personal experience does not indicate any operational maritime activity.

No one is doubting his skill, competence, and success in other ways. He simply is not an expert on EPIRBs. Therefore the claim by a journalist writing 25 years after the fact, alleging an improbable thing and excusing the lack of evidence by further allegations of mysterious disappearance are not credible.

Look. You can buy an HRU for £80 and a free float automatic EPIRB for £600.

Your saying he needs to be an expert on these handy gadgets would be like my saying you are not a real engineer because you bought your car torch from Walmart instead of making it yourself.

Koivisto is an expert on situational issues, surveillance, safety at sea and security. He doesn't need to reverse engineer an EPIRB although he probably has done. Of course he is an expert on how they work.

I quoted a contemporaneous newspaper - dated Jan 1995 - when the JAIC were looking at the issue of the EPIR's failing to transmit a signal despite having been tested and in good working order, and apparently having been released from their cage by the HRU.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Massive elephant in the room? You know, the 21m x 5m gash in the hull...?


That was a bit of an unfortunate oversight, eh? Rather like describing 9/11 as a minor cooking incident in the kitchen where the tea boy was making tea. Nothing to see here! Just a faulty cable on the kettle that was of poor design and hadn't been maintained properly. Plus, the weather was very bad.

Not even remotely the same. If you genuinely think that's an apt comparison then you really don't belong in this discussion.

The hole was above the waterline, and no matter how much you desperately try to shovel innuendo it was not made by a submarine.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I quoted a contemporaneous newspaper - dated Jan 1995 - when the JAIC were looking at the issue of the EPIR's failing to transmit a signal despite having been tested and in good working order, and apparently having been released from their cage by the HRU.

Because they were not hydrostatically activated. How many more times?

 

[JayUtah]

Your saying he needs to be an expert on these handy gadgets...

You're the one claiming he's an expert and therefore that statements attributed to him should be considered expert opinion.

Koivisto is an expert on situational issues, surveillance, safety at sea and security.

His company does not make emergency beacons. There is no reason to suppose he is an expert in how they're designed or their various failure modes. His personal experience lists no seafaring. There is no reason to suppose he has any practical understanding.

He doesn't need to reverse engineer an EPIRB...

Straw man.

...although he probably has done.

Speculation.

Of course he is an expert on how they work.

You've provided no foundation for that claim to expertise. Your only support is the belief of a journalist writing 25 years after the fact who gives only a "dog ate my homework" excuse for having no supporting evidence for his claim.

I quoted a contemporaneous newspaper...

That has nothing to do with Asser Koivisto.

...the JAIC were looking at the issue of the EPIR's failing to transmit a signal despite having been tested and in good working order, and apparently having been released from their cage by the HRU.

Asked and answered many times.

 

[Vixen]

Stop blabbering and answer the question. Please elaborate your point regarding computer modeling, free-surface fluid dynamics, or textbooks.

That is how the JAIC calculated how fast per second the incoming water would need to be to cause a capsize. Computer modelling until it got an answer to fit their hypothesis. Remember all that stuff about how all the windows on Deck 4 must have smashed by the impact of the waves because that was the only way to explain the ingress preventing the vessel from floating on its infrastructure by way of air and buoyancy of the (presumed intact) hull.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Vixen, why are you being so exceptionally rude and ignoring me?

 

[JayUtah]

That is how the JAIC calculated how fast per second the incoming water would need to be to cause a capsize.

Is there something wrong with that?

Computer modelling until it got an answer to fit their hypothesis.

Are you sure that's what they did?

What is your training and experience in flooding models and computer modeling for forensic engineering?

 

[JayUtah]

ingress preventing the vessel from floating on its infrastructure by way of air and buoyancy of the (presumed intact) hull.

I'm just going to leave this precious example of hilariously misworded gobbledygook right here for everyone to laugh at.

 

[lobosrul5]

No, you don't understand what a final report is. The final report presents the findings. The supplementary material details the investigation.

All you have is a statement by a journalist writing in 2020 claiming that a report was written in 1995 about the EPIRBs by someone who is not a subject-matter expert, and now that report cannot be found. This is more parsimoniously explained by such a report never having existed.

You seem to rely very heavily on news reports rather than primary sources. Why is that?

On top of that, I still cannot even find a quote from the guy saying what Vixen claims he said.

They didn't operate... for some reason. Is all she gave me.

 

[lobosrul5]

The J.A.I.C. never released it as it was solely focused on the car deck and the bow visor.

Today, we will hear from an expert on the operation of Estonia's EPIRB satellite buoys.
The buoys were found in the sea after the accident, and Estonians and Finns tested their operation on Tuesday. According to Estonian Radio, the buoys were made to transmit a radio signal. However, on the night of the accident, for some reason, the signal could not be received anywhere.
Buoys were supposed to signal the ship's position in case of emergency.

HS 28.1.1995

Vixen, no where does that source your supposed expert. And for all I know the next paragraph is: "We found the cause for no signal being sent from the buoy's is they were not activated by the crew".