Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 5

[Skeptic Ginger]

Thread continued from here.

Posted By: Agatha

He's right. It's p-hacking 101. The probability of a false positive conventional significance test is 0.05. He's provided a succinct explanation of the essence of the reproducibility crisis.

Then why did at least one of the controls, nail biting, not show the same correlation?

We did not find an association between nail biting and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This might be explained by the protective effects of salivary proteins which were recently demonstrated to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding to the ACE2 receptor [30], making the mouth merely an exit rather than an entrance route for viral transmission [24].

In addition the study is supported by the hypothesis the nose is a portal of entry, especially if directly inoculated.

And multiple past studies have shown doctors don't was their hands as often as infection control guidelines require. Here's one of many found with an easy search:
Why don't doctors wash their hands? A correlational study of thinking styles and hand hygiene.

One might find, however that the correlation is explained by hand hygiene rather than nose picking. And, I agree like all of these studies, it needs to be repeated, something we never do enough of.

Dismissing the results with casual handwaving suggests the researchers were stupid and I doubt they were.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A Danish group studied the effect of wearing glasses:

People without glasses had a four times higher risk of getting infected according to a new Danish study lauded by a professor.
Surprising study: Glasses may offer protection from coronavirus...

However, a Norwegian study didn't find a significant effect: Glasses Against transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the community (GLASSY): a pragmatic randomized trial (preprint).

So many of these studies fail to be repeatable. It's a huge problem with medical research. Few researchers want to revisit topics already investigated.

 

[The Atheist]

It's not so not science changing. It's the virus changing, which you would know if you were a good chap and kept up.

Edited by Agatha: 

Edited for incivility

The vaccine has changed, which is science. Viruses change all the time.

By the way, the new "variant of interest" is called Eris...

No, it's not called "eris", it's called EG.5.

You keep crying about variants and how damaging they are. I note you immediately stfu after attempting to use Okinawa as a scare tactic, when it turned out to be more of your hot air when infections and hospitalisations fell as fast as they started.

Eris, you say? I expect it to be every bit as big a fizzer as your attempts to portray Arcturus and other cutely-named variants as some horrific new thing. The way you bandy about idiot names for the variants when the scientific names are understood by everyone in this thread really emphasises your feeble and unexplained efforts to scare people.

We get it, you're scared of the virus, even though effective treatments exist. You want to make the world follow the Davos protocols, even though it's an impossible thing to achieve and there is zero will among the public or governments to do.

Edited by Agatha: 

Edited for incivility

The virus is now endemic among humans. Get used to it.

 

[dann]

Ah yes, some people still think that endemic is a good thing!

New article by Jonathan Howard in Science-Based Medicine about covid minimizer Dr. Makary.
Where have we heard claims like those from Dr. Makary before?

First note that Dr. Makary wrote in the past tense, about events “during Covid”, as if the virus is gone. Of course, this is false. While hospitals and morgues haven’t been overwhelmed in a long time, SARS-CoV-2 is infecting, injuring, and killing people every day. Dr. Makary, who still discusses the pandemic constantly, has been predicting the end of the pandemic since at least December 2020 when he said, “we may only need to get an additional 20% of the population immunized by February or March to really hit those 70% herd immunity levels.” He’s never wavered from this position. In February 2021 he penned as essay titled “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April,” and another the next month titled “Herd Immunity Is Near, Despite Fauci’s Denial“. In May 2021, he said he was right, claiming that “most of the country is at herd immunity”. He wrote articles in the NY Post that month titled, “Risk of COVID is Now Very Low — It’s Time to Stop Living in Fear: Doctor” and “Don’t Buy the Fearmongering: The COVID-19 Threat is Waning“. Dr. Makary later referred to the Omicron variant as “omi-cold” and “nature’s vaccine.” Anyone who cared about data knew that Dr. Makary was wrong about all this.

Sensible Medicine: Medical Misinformation and Medical Groupthink From the Medical Establishment (Science-Based Medicine, Aug 11, 2023)

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Eric Topol on mitochondria in long Covid and on poorly spent money

At substack Eric Tool wrote, "This week there was news on Long Covid in two very different directions—emergence of strong data to support mitochondrial dysfunction as the basis for the condition in some people—and learning how the $1.15 billion allocation to the NIH RECOVER initiative has largely been wasted."

He also said, "Even after clearance of the virus, there was evidence of chronic OXPHOS inhibition...There’s a long list of candidates [to restore mitochondrial function], but the authors specifically mention the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin, which has been studied for improving mitochondrial function as seen below." OXPHOS is short for oxidative phosphorylation, the process that makes adenosine triphosphate. mTOR stands for mammalian target of rapamycin, a protein involved in signal transduction.

He continued, "The RECOVER investigators prioritized observational research, in this case re-doing what was already known, with respect to cataloging the symptoms of people with Long Covid."

 

[dann]

Long Covid: Mitochondria, the Big Miss, and Hope (Substack, Aug 13, 2023).

 

[Planigale]

Long Covid: Mitochondria, the Big Miss, and Hope (Substack, Aug 13, 2023).

FWIW my personal experience of assessing patients with long covid is most have a syndrome that is either due to mitochondrial dysfunction or autonomic neuropathy (the two aren't mutually exclusive). I slightly favour autonomic neuropathy as the predominant lesion in most people I have assessed, but except in a research situation we don't have the tests to distinguish the two in routine clinical practice*. To some extent it is irrelevant because we don't have treatments for either syndrome.

*The consequence of either are quite similar, decreased muscle efficiency, i.e. muscles do less work than you would expect for delivered oxygen.

 

[dann]

Three cases of BA.2.86 have been detected in Denmark (SSI.dk, Aug 18, 2023)

A highly mutated new variant of the virus that causes Covid-19 has countries on alert as scientists scramble to understand how far it has spread and how well our immunity will defend against it.
The new variant, called BA.2.86 and nicknamed Pirola by variant hunters on social media, has more than 30 amino acid changes to its spike protein compared with its next closest ancestor, the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, according to Dr. Jesse Bloom, who studies viral evolution at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle.
“This makes it an evolutionary jump comparable in size to that which originally gave rise to Omicron,” Bloom posted on his lab’s website.
(...)
Only six sequences of BA.2.86 have been reported in four countries, but epidemiologists are worried they could represent many more because worldwide monitoring of variants has dropped off.
The variant was spotted by scientists in Israel on Sunday. Since then, Denmark has reported three sequences. Two more sequences were reported in United States and in the United Kingdom, respectively.
“It is unusual for corona to change so significantly and develop 30 new mutations. The last time we saw such a big change was when Omicron appeared,” said Morten Rasmussen, a senior researcher at the Statens Serum Institut, in a news statement on the variant.
The three cases in Denmark are in people in different parts of the country who do not appear to have had contact with each other, according to the institute.
Scientists race to understand highly mutated coronavirus variant spotted in four countries, including the US (CNN, Aug 18, 2023)

Considering
1) the currently very low level of testing in Denmark,
2) the lack of contact between the three cases, and
3) the rapidly rising number of new cases,
there is reason to assume that Pirola is already prevalent in most of the country. And considering that DK probably still performs more gene-sequencing analysis than some neighboring countries, there is reason to assume that it is already there as well.

Selvom corona, både som virus og samtaleemne, fylder mindre end tidligere, er smitten lige nu »meget kraftigt stigende«.
Mens corona er gået i glemmebogen, stiger smitten kraftigt (Jyllands-Posten, Aug 16, 2023)

Although coronavirus, both as a virus and as a topic of conversation, is not as prevalent as it used to be, the transmission of the infection is increasing very sharply.
Coronavirus has been forgotten, but the transmission of the infection is "increasing sharply"

In other bad news, long Covid:
COVID causes "substantial" long-term cardiovascular risks (SkepticalRaptor, Aug 15, 2023)

And in somewhat good news - if only it were possible for Danish parents to get their young children vaccinated:
Effectiveness of Monovalent and Bivalent mRNA Vaccines in Preventing COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters Among Children Aged 6 Months–5 Years — VISION Network, United States, July 2022–June 2023 (CDC, Aug 18, 2023)

"What are the implications for public health practice?
All children should stay up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccines, including initiating COVID-19 vaccination immediately when they become eligible."
Astrid Iversen (Twitter/X, Aug 19, 2023)

Unfortunately, booster shots won't be free for Danish 'children' under 65 this fall.

Meanwhile, in the UK:
New Covid wave has begun in UK and masks should be worn again, scientists warn (Independent, Aug 18, 2023)

 

[dann]

FWIW my personal experience of assessing patients with long covid is most have a syndrome that is either due to mitochondrial dysfunction or autonomic neuropathy (the two aren't mutually exclusive). I slightly favour autonomic neuropathy as the predominant lesion in most people I have assessed, but except in a research situation we don't have the tests to distinguish the two in routine clinical practice*. To some extent it is irrelevant because we don't have treatments for either syndrome.

*The consequence of either are quite similar, decreased muscle efficiency, i.e. muscles do less work than you would expect for delivered oxygen.

The Swedish way to handle that problem is to assume that long Covid = psychogenic illness.
Swedish nurse Hanne Kjöller has made a name for herself with this claim.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that there is no reason whatsoever to look for the cure for Long Covid. The infection may cause a number of very different problems, e.g. lung, heart, kidney or brain damage, and the two that you mention.
The main 'cure' is to avoid getting the infection in the first place, or at least be vaccinated and boosted if you get it.

 

[dann]

Continued from the previous post about long COVID:

Where are the long COVID treatment trials? A recent report by the health news site STAT revealed that the National Institutes for Health has failed to test meaningful treatments for long COVID after two and a half years and a $1.15 billion Congressional grant. Topol, meanwhile, has repeatedly used an empty white box to depict the number of validated treatments we have from well-designed randomized trials.
Long COVID. Shorter Life? New research reveals an arduous road to recovery (Fortune, Aug 21, 2023)

 

[Planigale]

The Swedish way to handle that problem is to assume that long Covid = psychogenic illness.
Swedish nurse Hanne Kjöller has made a name for herself with this claim.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that there is no reason whatsoever to look for the cure for Long Covid. The infection may cause a number of very different problems, e.g. lung, heart, kidney or brain damage, and the two that you mention.
The main 'cure' is to avoid getting the infection in the first place, or at least be vaccinated and boosted if you get it.

In general if a patient had e.g. heart damge post covid or lung damage post covid pneumonia that would not be called long covid, but e.g. post covid cardiomyopathy or post covid pulmonary fibrosis. Long covid is reserved for those patients with persisting symptoms and physiological abnormalities for which we do not have a 'conventional' explanation. There may be a number of different syndromes e.g. 'brain fog' may not have the same cause as decreased exercse tolerance with poor oxygen extraction on exercise testing or a syndrome of autonomic neuropathy.

 

[dann]

I stumbled on this article when I was trying to find out if there were any statistics of the number of people with mitochondrial dysfunction before and after 2020:

SARS-CoV-2 can damage mitochondrion in heart, other organs, study finds (University of Minnesota, Aug 9, 2023)

I assume that diagnostic difficulties may make such numbers hard to find.

 

[dann]

New (very short) article by Jonathan Howard:

why were some doctors so eager to spread the easily-refutable fiction that only vulnerable children died from COVID? Why did they say this was “good news”? I’m not a mind reader, but none of them seemed motivated to raise awareness about the conditions that left millions of children particularly vulnerable. They never launched a campaign to vaccinate children with obesity, or even leukemia for that matter. That would have been laudable. So would have an editorial titled “The Importance of Protecting Vulnerable Children.” Instead, it seemed the purpose of error-filled editorials titled “The Flimsy Evidence Behind the CDC’s Push to Vaccinate Children” was to convince parents: Your child has no risk. They don’t need the vaccine. COVID only kills children who are about to die anyways.
Some people also heard an implicit message here: Vulnerable children don’t really count. This was made explicit on social media recently. In response to a banal comment of mine that “Covid has actually killed and injured kids”, a philosopher (who later deleted her account) replied:

Elena Louisa Lange 5/23/23
No, Covid has NOT "actually killed and injured kids". Not one kid without pneumatic comorbidities has died after and infection.
You are a liar.

Vulnerable Children Really Count (Science-Based Medicine, Aug 25, 2023)

The three Twitter/X links in the quotation don't work: "good news", a banal comment of mine, and replied. Maybe it's just a temporary glitch.

 

[dann]

More about children and COVID-19:

As our kids return to school this year, it’s worth asking: What was the real impact of school closures during the height of the pandemic? Mehdi Hasan takes a deep dive to bust some disturbingly widespread myths about the real harms Covid brought to American children and schools.
The shocking truth about kids, Covid, and school closures (MSNBC on Youtube, Aug 24, 2023 - 26:08)

... and not just to American children and schools ...

 

[marting]

Long Covid - Brain Fog Study pointing to blood clots

https://www.psych.ox.ac.uk/news/blo...cause-of-ongoing-cognitive-problems?ref=image

In a new paper published in Nature Medicine, they identified two separate profiles of biomarkers. The first was having a high level of a protein called fibrinogen, and the second was a raised level of a protein fragment called D-dimer. Other aspects of the profiles suggested they are likely to reflect blood clots. The main findings were replicated using electronic health records in a separate population.

 

[The Atheist]

https://www.psych.ox.ac.uk/news/blo...cause-of-ongoing-cognitive-problems?ref=image

In a new paper published in Nature Medicine, they identified two separate profiles of biomarkers. The first was having a high level of a protein called fibrinogen, and the second was a raised level of a protein fragment called D-dimer. Other aspects of the profiles suggested they are likely to reflect blood clots. The main findings were replicated using electronic health records in a separate population.

I'd like to see a study on whether something as simple as taking aspirin might prevent that.

 

[marting]

I'd like to see a study on whether something as simple as taking aspirin might prevent that.

My thinking exactly. OTOH, neither my wife or I got Covid. As far as we know. We did get something about 6 months ago that resulted in a runny nose for about 7 days. No other symptoms. We both took rapid tests about 2 days after symptoms but negative. Not absoulte though since they produce relatively high false negatives and we didn't bother repeating the tests given extremely mild symptoms. Still possible. I figure around 10% or so.

I did have a swolen finger for a few weeks last year. Pretty sure it wasn't Covid.

That said, I'm 75 y/o and she's 73.

 

[The Atheist]

I did have a swolen finger for a few weeks last year. Pretty sure it wasn't Covid.

That said, I'm 75 y/o and she's 73.

I'm 64 and when I got it I had so close to zero symptoms I wouldn't have tested except everyone else in the house had it.

 

[marting]

I'm 64 and when I got it I had so close to zero symptoms I wouldn't have tested except everyone else in the house had it.

Pretty typical. A pretty large percentage have no or minimal symptoms as sero surveys have shown. Even for us older folks though some get pretty sick/die.

 

[The Atheist]

Pretty typical. A pretty large percentage have no or minimal symptoms as sero surveys have shown. Even for us older folks though some get pretty sick/die.

Now 3.5 years after the pandemic broke and two years of vaccines, I'm standing y my analysis that in people with a good level of immunity - whether vaccinated or acquired - the few people dying had already been measured for the coffin.

Death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture, so unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer, I don't believe you'll end up in ICU or the morgue.