Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 5

[marting]

Now 3.5 years after the pandemic broke and two years of vaccines, I'm standing y my analysis that in people with a good level of immunity - whether vaccinated or acquired - the few people dying had already been measured for the coffin.

Death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture, so unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer, I don't believe you'll end up in ICU or the morgue.

There is evidence that among the old, Covid-19 moved some deaths forward. This can be seen in the excess deaths graphs by age where, right after the large peaks, there was a drop below baseline that lasted 1-3 months for older cohorts. Especially noticable for those over 85. But the undershoot only reached 10-20% of the peak then returned to above baseline. However, another effect, impairment of general health, has also caused a long term increase in excess deaths in all age groups and this correlates with the numbers of people with the more severe symptoms and especially those hospitalized.

And yes, clearly a fraction of people seem more suceptable to severe disease/death while most do not.

It's actually not much different from other respiratory diseases though heart/circulatory sequelae are worse with Covid-19. It's long been noted that the recovered after hospitalization had a higher mortality in subsequent years. What makes Covid-19 stand out is that a much larger percentage got the novel virus and so the effects on the population scaled as well.

 

[steenkh]

Death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture, so unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer, I don't believe you'll end up in ICU or the morgue.

Anecdote: I do know a young person (around 30) with no known ailments who ended up in an ICU when he got COVID.

 

[dann]

Now 3.5 years after the pandemic broke and two years of vaccines, I'm standing y my analysis that in people with a good level of immunity - whether vaccinated or acquired - the few people dying had already been measured for the coffin.

Yes, of course! The millions of people dying already had toe tags and had "been measured for the coffin."
As if this kind of wishful thinking was even remotely similar to any kind of 'analysis'. And who wouldn't stand by that kind of analysis? - except people who actually look at the facts of the pandemic.
For instance:

Among patients aged 12-39 years with no predisposing comorbidities, the relative risk of heart failure or death was markedly higher for myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease than for myocarditis associated with vaccination.
“Among patients aged 12-39 years with no predisposing comorbidities, the relative risk of heart failure or death was markedly higher for myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease than for myocarditis associated with vaccination.” (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 10, 2023)

And that's just covid-related myocarditis!

Death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture, so unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer, I don't believe you'll end up in ICU or the morgue.

And diabetes is obviously ridiculous. Who actually has that kind of thing, right?! And why worry about the people who do?

Total: 37.3 million people of all ages had diabetes (11.3% of the population) in 2019. 37.1 million were adults ages 18 years or older.
Diagnosed: 28.7 million people of all ages had been diagnosed with diabetes (8.7% of the population).
28.5 million were adults ages 18 years or older.
283,000 were children and adolescents younger than age 20, including 244,000 with type 1 diabetes.
Undiagnosed: 8.5 million adults ages 18 years or older had diabetes but were undiagnosed (23% of adults with diabetes were undiagnosed).
Diabetes Statistics (NIH)

But diabetics are obviously among those who have "already been measured for the coffin."
And others are probably fat:

Nearly 1 in 3 adults (30.7%) are overweight.
More than 1 in 3 men (34.1%) and more than 1 in 4 women (27.5%) are overweight.
More than 2 in 5 adults (42.4%) have obesity (including severe obesity).
About 1 in 11 adults (9.2%) have severe obesity.
Overweight & Obesity Statistics (NIH)

And if they aren't diabetics or fat, others no doubt have asthma:

About 1 in 13 people in the United States has asthma, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
What Is Asthma? (NIH)

But for the sake of the argument, let's pretend that "death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture," and who cares about people with cancer or diabeetus (What a ridiculous disease, right?!) anyway?

 

[dann]

]The hundreds of Covid-19 deaths, thousands of hospitalisations and tens of thousands of Long Covid patients won't disappear just because the country has plugged its ears to the virus, Marc Daalder writes.
(...)
Insisting that Covid-19 can and will fade to the background is gaslighting. The statistics on the harm of this disease are inarguable, whatever ministers may say to distract from them. Scrapping the remaining measures protecting the public from Covid-19 is foolhardy and inconsistent with the approach we take to other threats to our collective welfare.
Consider the Road to Zero campaign, which received a $2.9 billion injection last year. How many people have died on our roads in 2023? A tragic 206 – too many, but just one third of the Covid-19 toll we've seen this year.
Covid-19: Don’t believe your lying eyes (Newsroom.co.nz, Aug 15/16, 2023)

The article contains a graph of Deaths by selected cause in 2023:
Covid-19 deaths 621
Road deaths 206
Homicides 13

 

[The Atheist]

Yes, of course! The millions of people dying already had toe tags and had "been measured for the coffin."
As if this kind of wishful thinking was even remotely similar to any kind of 'analysis'.

What a surprise that you'd create a complete strawman.

I said, and you even quoted me!

...in people with a good level of immunity - whether vaccinated or acquired - the few people dying had already been measured for the coffin.

You are flagrantly and wrongly conflating what happened early in the pandemic with the situation in 2023.

You're posting dishonest nonsense.

Again.

 

[dann]

Anecdote: I do know a young person (around 30) with no known ailments who ended up in an ICU when he got COVID.

There have been many similar cases, but The Atheist seems to misunderstand what "patients aged 12-39 years with no predisposing comorbidities" means.
His logic seems to be that they died or ended up in ICUs, so they can't have had "a good level of immunity."
When he believes something, there is no reason to back up his claim about the alleged picture that "death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting."

I guess there ain't no cure for Covid minimization. I am not even sure if it is clear to the minimizers that C-19 still kills considerably more people than road accidents - even at this point when the virus should have turned into something akin to the common cold.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I guess there ain't no cure for Covid minimization. I am not even sure if it is clear to the minimizers that C-19 still kills considerably more people than road accidents - even at this point when the virus should have turned into something akin to the common cold.

Why should it turn into common cold ? We will be happy if it turns into another flu. And flu doesn't usually require special measures.
Unless it is especially heavy wave .. or, which is new, unless it coincides with covid wave. Flu is basically what the hospitals are sized for .. and anything even slightly worse than that is a problem.
So I would agree that in 2023, covid is not much worse than flu. But that is still pretty bad, and while covid replaced flu during lockdowns, it will add to flu without them.

 

[Random person]

People are born, live and die.

 

[Trebuchet]

People are born, live and die.

So we shouldn't care if they die?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Anecdote: I do know a young person (around 30) with no known ailments who ended up in an ICU when he got COVID.

And that person is not alone.


The implication that people who are elderly are all feeble with dementia just waiting to die is incredibly offensive. As a severely immunocompromised person I was offended by the false claim, TA. This is what you posted:

Now 3.5 years after the pandemic broke and two years of vaccines, I'm standing y my analysis that in people with a good level of immunity - whether vaccinated or acquired - the few people dying had already been measured for the coffin.
Death notices, health department statistics and news media are all painting the same picture, so unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer, I don't believe you'll end up in ICU or the morgue.

That is incredibly offensive and your analysis lacks the proper perspective. I should add that it is also apparent your analysis is based on news media reports and not actual data.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What a surprise that you'd create a complete strawman.

I said, and you even quoted me!

You are flagrantly and wrongly conflating what happened early in the pandemic with the situation in 2023.

You're posting dishonest nonsense.

Again.

No, Dann's reply was to what you posted, not a straw man.

Instead of providing current stats if you think Dann's were outdated you double down.

 

[The Atheist]

Anecdote: I do know a young person (around 30) with no known ailments who ended up in an ICU when he got COVID.

Yes, there are always outliers.

One case among tens of millions is news, but not cause for alarm.

The implication that people who are elderly are all feeble with dementia just waiting to die is incredibly offensive.

That's not what I said, and I've said it several times now. The people dying are already on the verge of death, with very few exceptions. I haven't even mentioned dementia, far less suggested all old people have it. I have a friend of 103 who still walks to the bus stop and another of 96 who drives to the mall twice a week.

That is incredibly offensive and your analysis lacks the proper perspective. I should add that it is also apparent your analysis is based on news media reports and not actual data.

No, it's based on fact, which is why Dann has studiously avoided returning to his previous attempt to panic with the covid surge in Japan - which turned out to be a big, fat nothing. Covid is not killing many people, and those it is killing are overwhelmingly people in high-level or hospice care.

The death rate from covid worldwide now ranks well below car crash deaths and is roughly equivalent to poisoning deaths, far below other diseases and comparable with influenza. If anything, influenza is more dangerous because we don't have a cure for it.

As regards being immuno-compromised, I'm sure Paxlovid will work if you get covid. My 14-year-old son is also immuno-compromised. Some people have medical issues, but the rest of the world is not, and should not, panicking over those few unlucky ones. I don't expect people to take measures to protect him - he can, and does - take measures to protect himself from them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, there are always outliers.

One case among tens of millions is news, but not cause for alarm.

That's not what I said, and I've said it several times now. The people dying are already on the verge of death, with very few exceptions. I haven't even mentioned dementia, far less suggested all old people have it. I have a friend of 103 who still walks to the bus stop and another of 96 who drives to the mall twice a week.

No, it's based on fact, which is why Dann has studiously avoided returning to his previous attempt to panic with the covid surge in Japan - which turned out to be a big, fat nothing. Covid is not killing many people, and those it is killing are overwhelmingly people in high-level or hospice care.

The death rate from covid worldwide now ranks well below car crash deaths and is roughly equivalent to poisoning deaths, far below other diseases and comparable with influenza. If anything, influenza is more dangerous because we don't have a cure for it.

As regards being immuno-compromised, I'm sure Paxlovid will work if you get covid. My 14-year-old son is also immuno-compromised. Some people have medical issues, but the rest of the world is not, and should not, panicking over those few unlucky ones. I don't expect people to take measures to protect him - he can, and does - take measures to protect himself from them.

Oh brother.

The world panicking is the only straw man in this discussion. FTR: Paxlovid has some serious issues like it's not clear what role it might play in long-term COVID.

There are influenza drugs, they just don't work on all strains.

Whatever happens in Japan is hardly transferable to the worldwide experience with COVID.

Given flu and COVID risks vary by strain it is hard to compare the two. With both there is always the possibility the latest variant or strain will be more deadly and more drug &/or vaccine resistant than the last circulating strain. Dismissing or minimizing the hazard of either is foolish.
Aug 25, 2023; CIDRAP: COVID Omicron carries 4 times the risk of death as flu, new data show

The risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection was four times higher than that from influenza in late 2022 and early 2023 in France, a Harvard Medical School researcher reports today in Epidemiology & Infection.

I should think France is more comparable to most Western countries than Japan. But if all you are going by is what's in the top spot you can't over-generalize anyway and say things lower on the list are minimal risks.

Face it, it's you who have misstated the relative risks here, not Dann.


As for others not taking action to protect people like me or your son, again you are wrong. People need flu vaccine because those folks at most risk from flu don't get as good a response to the vaccine. So one goal is to vaccinate those around them. Same with COVID.

And people wearing a good mask do more to stop the spread of COVID than the masks do to protect the people wearing them. Not that I have much hope that message gets through to people here in the US where Trump & his followers as well as Fauci & our CDC mucked up the messaging about masks to the point there is no chance that misinformation will ever be corrected.

So yes, of course, I do what I can to protect myself. How is your kid going to stay safe at school? Does the school do anything to protect him? Can he wear a mask in school. Is the risk he'll be teased by wearing a mask more important to you than the risk he'll get COVID? What messages are you sending him with your unsupportable belief the risk is so rare?

 

[dann]

So we shouldn't care if they die?

That was the attitude of many Swedes since day one of the pandemic:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=13063852#post13063852
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=13063942#post13063942
I saw it several times in the forum of Swedish skeptics before it shut down. There were a couple of exceptions, but what seemed to be the majority seemed to be OK with pandemics deaths. Some of them argued that dying was natural, which it obviously is - along with immunity acquired the natural way, unless you die before you get to that point.

 

[The Atheist]

The world panicking is the only straw man in this discussion.

And if you can show me where I've remotely suggested that, point it out.

Nice work to accuse me of using a strawman while creating one of your own. Well played!

I mentioned one specific person who has been trying - and failing - to create panic. Also good work not to acknowledge your previous strawman I pointed out.

FTR: Paxlovid has some serious issues like it's not clear what role it might play in long-term COVID.

Very minor issues is what I understand. If you can show there are serious problems, I'm sure the American Council on Science and Health will be interested, because they haven't changed their recommendation in the past year.

There are influenza drugs, they just don't work on all strains.

Not to mention being relatively ineffectual when weighed against the excellent results of paxlovid, 'Flu antivirals are more in hope than reality.

Whatever happens in Japan is hardly transferable to the worldwide experience with COVID.

Tell the poster who tried to start a panic over a small increase in infections there. That said, the quick rise and fall in covid infections seems to be fairly standard for the different strains that come through in the past year and a bit.

COVID Omicron carries 4 times the risk of death as flu, new data show

Estimated data and assumptions a year old says nothing.

As for others not taking action to protect people like me or your son, again you are wrong. People need flu vaccine because those folks at most risk from flu don't get as good a response to the vaccine. So one goal is to vaccinate those around them. Same with COVID.

Ridiculous.

If people won't get vaccines against a potentially deadly disease for themselves they're not going to do it to protect others, so my point in fact is 100% correct.

And people wearing a good mask do more to stop the spread of COVID than the masks do to protect the people wearing them.

Not that I have much hope that message gets through to people here in the US where Trump & his followers as well as Fauci & our CDC mucked up the messaging about masks to the point there is no chance that misinformation will ever be corrected.

Blaming Trump is pure nonsense - the picture is repeated across the world, regardless of which government is in power. People don't want to wear masks and aren't going to. Nobody in NZ, UK or Australia wears them any more, apart from Chinese people who were wearing them long before covid anyway.

What messages are you sending him with your unsupportable belief the risk is so rare?

He recognises the risk for him is uniquely higher than other kids and wears a mask 100% of the time and he's fully vaccinated. None of us expect others to protect him, so we take the precautions.

 

[The Atheist]

Ooh! That scary BA.2.86 variant with the new 30 mutations?

Still not escaping immunity - both acquired and vaccinated.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ooster-will-protect-against-worrisome-variant

 

[dann]

You appear to be very easily scared. If the BA.2.86 variant scares you so much that you can't bear hearing about it, you could simply stop reading about it.
This part of the article was interesting:

"I wish the booster was already out," says Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children's Hospital, noting that yet another wave of infections has already begun increasing the number of people catching the virus and getting so sick that they're ending up in the hospital and dying. "We need it now."
Lab data suggests new COVID booster will protect against worrisome variant (NPR, Sep 5, 2023)

This is for those of you who are not easily scared and are interested in information about BA.2.86:

BREAKING A new study from G2P-Japan is out! The preprint will be out so soon, but first we show our results on BA.2.86 - transmissibility, infectivity and immune resistance. This would be the 4th non-peer-reviewed, but includes some new stuff. Please retweet/repost 1/
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato) (Twitter/X, Sep 7, 2023)

1⃣Transmissibility/fitness (Re):Analysis by Jumpei @jampei2 using the data from showed that BA.2.86's Re is greater than XBB.1.5 and comparable to or even greater than EG.5.1. 3/
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato) (Twitter/X, Sep 7, 2023)

Finally, the anti-BA.2.86 activity of XBB breakthrough infection sera was PRETTY POOR, and BA.2.86 was significantly (1.6-fold) more resistant to these sera than EG.5.1. 7/
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato) (Twitter/X, Sep 7, 2023)

Altogether, it is suggested that BA.2.86 is one of the most highly immune evasive variants ever and should have the potential to be considered as a variant of interest. 8/
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato) (Twitter/X, Sep 7, 2023)

 

[dann]

I think that this is the point when minimizers usually tell us that SARS-CoV-2 is endemic, and it certainly is:

We continue to see concerning trends for COVID-19 ahead of the winter season in the northern hemisphere.
Deaths are increasing in some parts of the Middle East and Asia, ICU admissions are increasing in Europe and hospitalizations are increasing in several regions.
Still, data are limited.
Only 43 countries – less than a quarter of WHO Member States – are reporting deaths to WHO, and only 20 provide information on hospitalizations.
Globally, there is not one variant that is dominant. The variant of interest EG.5 is on the rise, while the XBB subvariants are declining.
The BA.2.86 variant has been detected in small numbers in 11 countries.
WHO is monitoring this variant closely to assess its transmissibility and potential impact.
One of WHO’s biggest concerns is the low level of at-risk people who have received a dose of COVID-19 vaccine recently. Our message is not to wait to get an additional dose if it is recommended for you.
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing – 6 September 2023 (WHO, Sep 6, 2023)

It's unfortunate that so many countries have stopped reporting deaths and hospitalizations.
As we have seen in this thread, it makes some people think that endemic means that the pandemic is more or less over and of no concern to anybody "unless you have the severe case of the diabeetus or you're dying of cancer," and in that case your life is only useful as something to make fun of, apparently.

SARS-CoV-2 still doesn't seem to be anywhere near the flu or the common cold:
March 25, 2022: 'Flu deaths here [NZ] are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.
In 2022, there were actually more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths.
This year, there have been almost 1,000 so far (Aug 22). No new numbers since then.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths (Our World in Data).

 

[The Atheist]

You appear to be very easily scared.

I think you actually know I was channeling the panickers. Covid doesn't bother me at all.

 

[dann]

You should consider channelling somebody who understands the pandemic. Somebody who keeps up with the facts and thus makes much better predictions.