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Cont: Global warming discussion V

If you have nuclear, wind and solar all producing electricity and you have more electricity then you need some of that energy will be wasted. Some people use "base load" as a reason why the power from nuclear plants should be used while the power from wind turbines should get discarded, but there really is no valid reason why this should be the case.

It's a false narrative aimed at trying to skew economic factors in favor of a preferred option. Wind, Solar and Nuclear ALL need to have either grid storage or power generation from some source that can be brought online\offline quickly.

Maybe I'm missing something here :confused: The problem with solar and wind is sometimes you won't have enough power, because for example its a still night... or its a stormy night (over a certain wind speed windmills have to be shutdown). The only issue with nuclear is sometimes you'd make so much energy some of it would be wasted?

It also looks as though newer technologies allow NPP's to spool up and down relatively quickly, making them more flexible.

https://www.powermag.com/flexible-operation-of-nuclear-power-plants-ramps-up/
 
Maybe I'm missing something here :confused: The problem with solar and wind is sometimes you won't have enough power, because for example its a still night... or its a stormy night (over a certain wind speed windmills have to be shutdown). The only issue with nuclear is sometimes you'd make so much energy some of it would be wasted?


A nuclear plant produces constant power but demand goes up and down during the day so a nuclear plant is still going to be producing too much power at times and too little power at other times. You could build extra capacity to cover periods where it produces too little, but you can do the same with renewables.

It also looks as though newer technologies allow NPP's to spool up and down relatively quickly, making them more flexible.

https://www.powermag.com/flexible-operation-of-nuclear-power-plants-ramps-up/
But what is the advantage of spooling them down? It's not like you are saving fuel like you would with coal\gas or keeping water in the previous for future use like you would with hydro.

In most cases there is almost no disadvantage or extra cost to running Nuclear, Wind or Solar full out. It makes more sense to either store any extra production or to ship it via HVDC to someplace else than to just shut off the turbines.
 
I have to admit I'm not super well read on the subject, but I thought the left criticism of these technologies is that they aren't generally reliable in enough places to make up more than a minority share of energy production, as opposed to nuke energy which can be a direct analogue to fossil fuel power generation without the emissions.

The nice thing about nuclear is that it produces as much as you design it for, generating power reliably regardless of weather conditions. Solar especially is a problem because there's less daylight during winter, exactly the time of year when colder regions generally need more power.

Seeing this problem in Germany right now, where the energy crisis is resulting in more coal plants being brought online. Meanwhile France is on about 70% nuclear power.
The problem with renewables, and I too am not exactly an expert, is that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. So renewables can't provide the baseline amount of power on the grid to keep everything constantly running without substantial amounts of grid storage - ie. lots and lots of batteries or the equivalent. Coal, gas and nuclear are constantly putting baseline power on the grid, which renewables can't do.
 
Great! We have snowplows and icebreakers etc. on standby (almost) all year round, i.e. capital doing nothing. It's not a problem. And unlike snowplows and icebreakers, as soon as storage capacity is available, it won't be a financial problem: You store surplus energy to be used when there is no wind and/or sun. (Unfortunately, you can't plow snow or break ice in advance of snowstorms or sea ice.)

As it is, electric power is cheaper when it's windy and there's plenty of it and more expensive when there's little wind. When electricity is used for heating houses, that's pretty neat. During cold winter storms, electricity is cheaper.


But again, the main argument: Fossil fuels make the planet uninhabitable. The idea of using fossil fuels only now and then to make up for temporary shortages doesn't change that fact, and it is the number 1 problem that has to be solved. Wobs' example is good in this context: Idle windmills will be switched on when the demand rises and switched off when demand is low. The extra capacity needs to be there, of course.
And any source of power that is switched on and off can be considered to be on standby some of the time: "dormant wind turbines etc on standby." It is not specific to wind turbines, and it is as good an argument against all other sources of power.

Energy storage costs money. The more you install, the more the electricity you supply will cost.
Installing wind turbine/solar panels costs money. The more excess capacity you install (assuming you want to go 100% renewables), the more your electricity will cost.

With the intermittency of wind/solar, you would have to install a huge amount of excess capacity to compensate, and the bulk of that would remain switched off for much of the time, while you wait for weather conditions that reduce the output of them enough.

Lets imagine Tokyo relied entirely on off shore wind. They have a huge quantity of excess capacity of turbines, and battery storage for when the wind drops. Then a storm hits, and all those turbines have to turn off, as its too windy. So they rely on battery back up for three days. How much do you think they'll need? 14million, purchase price: $400billion, which averages out at $27billion per year. (Numbers from How to Avoid Climate Disaster by Bill Gates)

That's just for the batteries, not including the wind turbines, which would also be expsensive owing to the excess capacity.

Again, the more excess capacity you install (ie. those units you often switch off), the more you energy will cost.

Lets compare wind with gas (I would rather do away with fossil fuels of course, but its a useful illustration):

A grid of say 50GW might need 20GW* of gas capacity to deal with variation on a day to day basis. But if you were to replace all of this with wind, you would need far more capacity than that. In fact it would need to be many more times that 20GW, as it would need to deal with low wind for prolonged periods, too high wind for prolonged periods. And of course, given that turbines cannot produce their full rating for the majority of the time, we would need far more installed capacity. This is in addition to energy storage costs. This excess capacity far exceeds any capacity you would install with gas or coal.

Another example: In 2010, we had a deep freeze in the UK, where we had very little wind for weeks at a time, and demand was highest. The days were short, and coal was burned in abundance. To accomodate such a situation with renewables, would be completely uneconomic. You would need a capacity so huge that the bulk of them would be turned off for most of the year, not earning their keep.

Sure, we might get the odd day where people can go "Hey, we're running on wind, see it works!" but that ignores the reality of day to day needs, and the varibility of weather. I see people doing this on another forum I go on.

The excess installed capacity needed for fully renewable makes it uneconomic.

Its tempting to see the cheapness of wind/solar energy today, and extrapolate that to the full grid, but it doesn't work that way, and the study I reference yesterday confirms this.

In addition: we will need more electricity in the future, as we electrify more things (eg. steel manufacture and running cars), people install more aircon, and economies grow. So this issue is intensified.

Your snow plough analogy doesn't work, as they are relatively cheap, and the economic value of keep roads clear and safe are factored in. Also, here in the UK we don't invest much in such things as we rarely use them, compared with say Finland, where they are far better prepared, as they get snow far more often. Its just not worth it for us to have that level of preparedness.

* - numbers for illustration purposes only.
 
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A nuclear plant produces constant power but demand goes up and down during the day so a nuclear plant is still going to be producing too much power at times and too little power at other times. You could build extra capacity to cover periods where it produces too little, but you can do the same with renewables.


But what is the advantage of spooling them down? It's not like you are saving fuel like you would with coal\gas or keeping water in the previous for future use like you would with hydro.

In most cases there is almost no disadvantage or extra cost to running Nuclear, Wind or Solar full out. It makes more sense to either store any extra production or to ship it via HVDC to someplace else than to just shut off the turbines.

Baseload supply is the part of the grid that is always in demand. We have always had this issue, and nuclear fits this role well. Ramping up/down is another type of supply, and again, we have always had this, as there has always been variable supply issues.

In theory, you can use nuclear for that, and it does actually happen in some places, but its rarely done for economic reasons.

Storage also costs money, just like installing excess capacity.

Exporting via HVDC can work, but only if there is a market for it. Germany & Denmark have found this, and the former have destablised their neighbours grids as a result of excess wind/solar. Denamrk has had to export cheaply and import at an elevated cost at times.

Sooner or later that exporting falls down, and you have to switch off your turbines, if you have such excess capacity.
 
Germany & Denmark have found this, and the former have destablised their neighbours grids as a result of excess wind/solar. Denmark has had to export cheaply and import at an elevated cost at times..


Actually, Danish suppliers of wind power are sometimes paid turn off wind turbines:
For at undgå at elnettet bryder sammen, betaler tyskerne de danske vindmøllerejere for at slukke vindmøllerne. Grundet tyske tilskudsregler, er det nemlig billigere for tyskerne at slukke de danske vindmøller frem for deres egne, forklarer Maiken Thomsen, konsulent i Green Power Denmark.
Explainer: The reason why windmills sometimes aren't spinning /url] (Green Power Denmark, Dec 7, 2022)

To keep the power grid from breaking down, the Germans pay the Danish wind turbine owners to switch off the wind turbines. Due to German subsidy rules, it is cheaper for the Germans to switch off the Danish wind turbines rather than their own, explains Maiken Thomsen, consultant at Green Power Denmark.

I.e., when it is windy, Danish wind turbines can produce more than [url=http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=14114677#post14114677]the 67% of electric power they already deliver
.
 
Actually, Danish suppliers of wind power are sometimes paid turn off wind turbines:

To keep the power grid from breaking down, the Germans pay the Danish wind turbine owners to switch off the wind turbines. Due to German subsidy rules, it is cheaper for the Germans to switch off the Danish wind turbines rather than their own, explains Maiken Thomsen, consultant at Green Power Denmark.

I.e., when it is windy, Danish wind turbines can produce more than the 67% of electric power they already deliver.

Germany has also destablised the grids of their neighbours. They can switch off turbines, but that also costs money. If one is being paid to do so, this is still a cost someone.
 
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Energy storage costs money. The more you install, the more the electricity you supply will cost.
Installing wind turbine/solar panels costs money. The more excess capacity you install (assuming you want to go 100% renewables), the more your electricity will cost.

With the intermittency of wind/solar, you would have to install a huge amount of excess capacity to compensate, and the bulk of that would remain switched off for much of the time, while you wait for weather conditions that reduce the output of them enough.

(...)

Your snow plough analogy doesn't work, as they are relatively cheap, and the economic value of keep roads clear and safe are factored in. Also, here in the UK we don't invest much in such things as we rarely use them, compared with say Finland, where they are far better prepared, as they get snow far more often. Its just not worth it for us to have that level of preparedness.

* - numbers for illustration purposes only.


Yes, it all costs money, but it's funny that it only seems to occur to you when we are talking wind and solar, so let me mention a couple of other benefits: Wind and solar comes to you, delivered by nature. You don't have to dig it up and transport it to the site where it's burned to produce power. You don't have to feed the furnace. The maintenance costs appear to be pretty low, once the wind turbines are installed. As for solar, the maintenance costs seem to be so low that it is left to sheep (eating grass and shrubbery before it grows high enough to prevent the rays of the sun the reach the panels. (There was a recent scandal because the owner of one field used for solar panels thought that the sheep were low-maintenance, too.) It's not as if nuclear grows on trees, is it?


Listing practical problems and mentioning that it is costly to fix those problems is a pretty poor argument, in particular when it is cherry-picked and concerns only one energy source as if all the others come free and run 24/7. It's how we got where we are now: Fossil fuels were (relatively) cheap and convenient, and the price was more important than their environmental costs.

Whole countries have been built based on the idea that the consumption of fossil fuels was without environmental costs, commuting based on cars instead of bikes and subways, is the reason why the globe is warming. I don't give a **** if changing to renewables is costly. Let Exxon, Mobile, Shell etc. (Maersk in Denmark) pay the bill for the "huge amount of excess capacity to compensate" - whether the amount is factual or made up. And let them pay for new ways of reburying the CO2 they have added to the atmosphere, too.
 
Germany has also destablised the grids of their neighbours. They can switch off turbines, but that also costs money. If one is being paid to do so, this is still a cost someone.


Yes, that's what I just told you: The Germans pay for switching off Danish wind turbines. Paying implies a cost. I think that was already obvious and didn't have to be pointed out.
 
The problem with renewables, and I too am not exactly an expert, is that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. So renewables can't provide the baseline amount of power on the grid to keep everything constantly running without substantial amounts of grid storage - ie. lots and lots of batteries or the equivalent. Coal, gas and nuclear are constantly putting baseline power on the grid, which renewables can't do.


What on Earth would prevent them from providing the "the baseline amount of power"? (What exactly do you mean by "the baseline amount of power"?) You will need surplus capacity, storage capacity and a functioning grid to send energy from one area, currently windy and sunny, to another, currently windless and cloudy.
Coal and gas currently put CO2 into the atmosphere, which has to stop.
 
Yes, it all costs money, but it's funny that it only seems to occur to you when we are talking wind and solar, so let me mention a couple of other benefits: Wind and solar comes to you, delivered by nature. You don't have to dig it up and transport it to the site where it's burned to produce power. You don't have to feed the furnace. The maintenance costs appear to be pretty low, once the wind turbines are installed. As for solar, the maintenance costs seem to be so low that it is left to sheep (eating grass and shrubbery before it grows high enough to prevent the rays of the sun the reach the panels. (There was a recent scandal because the owner of one field used for solar panels thought that the sheep were low-maintenance, too.) It's not as if nuclear grows on trees, is it?


Listing practical problems and mentioning that it is costly to fix those problems is a pretty poor argument, in particular when it is cherry-picked and concerns only one energy source as if all the others come free and run 24/7. It's how we got where we are now: Fossil fuels were (relatively) cheap and convenient, and the price was more important than their environmental costs.

Whole countries have been built based on the idea that the consumption of fossil fuels was without environmental costs, commuting based on cars instead of bikes and subways, is the reason why the globe is warming. I don't give a **** if changing to renewables is costly. Let Exxon, Mobile, Shell etc. (Maersk in Denmark) pay the bill for the "huge amount of excess capacity to compensate" - whether the amount is factual or made up. And let them pay for new ways of reburying the CO2 they have added to the atmosphere, too.

Did you miss the bit where I said "I would rather do away with fossil fuels of course"

My point is that we need nuclear power to take the baseload supply as its not economic to rely on wind & solar. I even posted a ref to a study supporting this claim.

If we're trying to get off fossil fuels, we need to do so in a way we can afford.
 
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Exporting via HVDC can work, but only if there is a market for it. Germany & Denmark have found this, and the former have destablised their neighbours grids as a result of excess wind/solar. Denamrk has had to export cheaply and import at an elevated cost at times.


I live in Denmark, and as an end consumer I haven't noticed any problems with a destabilized grid. (How about the other ISF Danes?!) Could you tell us what exactly the problem is that you are talking about?

Sooner or later that exporting falls down, and you have to switch off your turbines, if you have such excess capacity.


Yes, you have to switch off your turbines when there is no demand. And you need extra capacity to supply the demand when it's there. How is that different from any other source of energy?
 


"Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who works with me as a senior fellow at The Heartland Institute, ..."

Anthony Watts (Wikipedia) See also: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=14127365#post14127365
Heartland Institute (Wikipedia)


ETA: Justin Haskins, the author of the Fox article.
From a Justin Haskins article:
Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have not embraced Marxist principles throughout much of their economies and are thus not “socialist” nations. Although these countries have, without question, socialized a relatively small number of their industries, such as health care and higher education.
Debunking the Scandinavian Socialism Myth (Heartland.org, Feb 1, 2020)
:sdl:
 
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Did you miss the bit where I said "I would rather do away with fossil fuels of course"

My point is that we need nuclear power to take the baseload supply as its not economic to rely on wind & solar. I even posted a ref to a study supporting this claim.

If we're trying to get off fossil fuels, we need to do so in a way we can afford.


No, we can't afford not to get off fossil fuels. There's no "if".
And for some reason you think that we can't afford wind and solar - based on "* - numbers for illustration purposes only."
 
If you have nuclear, wind and solar all producing electricity and you have more electricity then you need some of that energy will be wasted.


Switch it off. No energy wasted. The answer is blowing in the wind.
And there isn't the problem of reheating the whole thing to get started that you have with fossil fuels and nuclear.

Startup event: initiation of fossil fuel combustion at an EGU following one or more hours of non‐operation (i.e., no
combustion)
 Hot starta: A startup event in which the EGU was offline for 24 hours or less before starting to combust fossil
fuels
 Warm starta: A startup event in which the EGU was offline for 25 ‐ 119 hours before starting to combust
fossil fuels
 Cold starta: A startup event in which the EGU was offline for 120 hours or more before starting to combust
fossil fuels
Assessment of startup period at coal‐fired electric generating units (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, June 17, 2013)
 
No, we can't afford not to get off fossil fuels. There's no "if".
And for some reason you think that we can't afford wind and solar - based on "* - numbers for illustration purposes only."

No, its based on evidence I provided here:
https://news.mit.edu/2018/adding-power-choices-reduces-cost-risk-carbon-free-electricity-0906
Here it is again:
Costs have declined rapidly for wind power, solar power, and energy storage batteries in recent years, leading some researchers, politicians, and advocates to suggest that these sources alone can power a carbon-free grid. But the new study finds that across a wide range of scenarios and locations, pairing these sources with steady carbon-free resources that can be counted on to meet demand in all seasons and over long periods — such as nuclear, geothermal, bioenergy, and natural gas with carbon capture — is a less costly and lower-risk route to a carbon-free grid.

Also, states:
“The results of this research challenge what has become conventional wisdom on both sides of the climate change debate,” Lester says. “Contrary to fears that effective climate mitigation efforts will be cripplingly expensive, our work shows that even deep decarbonization of the electric power sector is achievable at relatively modest additional cost. But contrary to beliefs that carbon-free electricity can be generated easily and cheaply with wind, solar energy, and storage batteries alone, our analysis makes clear that the societal cost of achieving deep decarbonization that way will likely be far more expensive than is necessary.”

Remember, they looked at nearly 1000 scenarios, and concluded that wind / solar would not be practical on their own to decarbonise the US.

I simply gave examples to try to explain why.

This really isn't a technical or economic problem. We have mature technology with which to decarbonise our grids. Why are you so against nuclear power when the evidence shows that it needs to be part of the equation? Together with wind/solar/other renewables, we have to start building these things.
 
I live in Denmark, and as an end consumer I haven't noticed any problems with a destabilized grid. (How about the other ISF Danes?!) Could you tell us what exactly the problem is that you are talking about?




Yes, you have to switch off your turbines when there is no demand. And you need extra capacity to supply the demand when it's there. How is that different from any other source of energy?

Germany has caused destablising issues with its neighbours:
And Germany’s neighbours are complaining about destabilising loop-flows, as congestion in the German grid forces power into those of neighbouring countries, and about blockages at the borders.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/fac...rs-blockages-german-grid-odds-eu-power-market
 
Yes, that's what I just told you: The Germans pay for switching off Danish wind turbines. Paying implies a cost. I think that was already obvious and didn't have to be pointed out.

And so the higher % of the grid you have is intermittent (wind/solar), the more you have to do that. If you want to have all wind/solar for your grid, you will have to have such a high % switched off much of the time, it would be uneconomic (see previous post).

Lets have another example:
Lets say you spend £2.3million of a turbine. Over 25 years of its expected life, it runs at a capacity factor of 30% (average for on shore). You assume an availability of 90% if it works ok, and you can work out your payback according to the price of feed-in tariff etc.

If you make enough money per year, you'll pay back the investment in a few years (7 years in my experience, but that was a few years ago). However, if you need to switch it off for prolonged periods, you're not getting any payback. With a grid with many times as many wind turbines than the demand needs (because you'd need so much excess capacity), that investment could never payback.

If you say "oh, but we'll get paid to switch it off, so it will payback anyway". Well fine, but society has to pay for that. Its still really expensive for society when you scale it up to a national grid scale operation.

The alternative is you follow the evidence (see previous posts), and invest in nuclear as part of the baseload supply, so you don't have to have as much excess capacity
 

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