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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Jimbo07 said:
Tanks on the streets in Rostov. We're told they're Wagner units occupying the defense ministry. Hard to tell, though. They're all Russian. It could be something else, entirely.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672424964086169600

I'm not cheering for Wagner. They are... not nice guys. It would be nice if it took some pressure off Ukraine while they were eating each other alive, though. Does anybody have a plan for securing Russia's nukes if the whole thing descends into bedlam?
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Wagner now appears to have full control of Rostov. That city has about a million people and is a significant military logistics hub. Took them about two hours.

There is now fighting reported in Voronzh oblast, near the town of Pavlovsk. There is speculation that Prigozihn split his troops, sending some south to Rostok and some north.

This puts then just hours south of Moscow.

I don't know where this is going, I can't imagine Prigozihn taking Moscow. I expect that at some point there may be negotiations, with Wagner/Prigozihn getting higher status in the Ru military, and some Ru generals and senior politicians sacked - with Putin remaining in power but looking weak. I think that would be an unstable solution - revolutions sometimes come in steps. Especially in Russia.

Or Putin cracks down and things get dark.

Either scenario gives Ukraine a ton of breathing room for some time.
 
crescent said:
Wagner has surrounded the Russian ministry of defense building in Rostov.

The plane that Lukashenko frequently uses is about to land at Ekinanbari airport on Turkey's Aegean coast.

I think I'm going to make some popcorn.
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Lots of live feeds from Rostov and elsewhere:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z10MIluEPTk

Live stream. Currently Wagner soldiers running around while civilians watch in curiosity.

The World is truly insane. :boggled:
 
Drewbot said:
My first take:
Putin has Prighozin setting up Shoigu to take the fall for the whole debacle.

Possibly giving himself an out from the war, saying he was mislead by Shoigu. Prighozin kills Shoigu so noone to testify.
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He remains a master strategist.
 
crescent said:
Crazy rumors going on in the twittersphere right now. All bunk, probably - reality is rarely ever as exciting as rumors.
1: Shoigu has left the country
2: Wagner and some regular Ru troops attacking other Ru troops near Bakhmut
3: Ru national guard activated and armed

Here's a live news feed from Russian TV:

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Thank you for that breaking news story.
 
I guess we will have to see if the Russian army is willing to defend Putin.

If they are then whoever wins, there will be a lot of destruction of Russian military equipment and that should help Ukraine.
If the army switches sides an even more deranged dictator will control Russia.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
I guess we will have to see if the Russian army is willing to defend Putin.

If they are then whoever wins, there will be a lot of destruction of Russian military equipment and that should help Ukraine.
If the army switches sides an even more deranged dictator will control Russia.
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What if we take Prigozhin at his word, that this is not a coup against Putin, but a mutiny against military leadership? If, as rumored, army units are switching sides, this whole thing might be quick and relatively bloodless (there have been a couple clashes involving small arms, helicopters, etc. but no real war). The generals are thrown out (a window), Putin congratulates Prigozhin, then puts him in charge.

Now, what happens if Russia comes roaring back into Ukraine with a competent leader in charge?
 
https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1672462400434388993

Prigozihn is at the Russian Southern Military District HQ in Rostov. He's got Yunus-bek Yevkurov there - Dept. Defense Secretary, and Vladimir Alekseev, Deputy head of the GRU. Big fish.

Prigozihn seems to want Gerasimov and Shoigu's heads on a platter, or else he moves north.

Surprising number of journalists still expressing doubt that Wagner has taken the city, or that the troops previously seen with tanks marked with the red "Z" and pointing guns at the HQ were Wagner.

I think this turn of events fried a few brains.



ETA: Earlier there was video from two Ru Generals asking Prigozihn to not do this, ordering Russian soldiers to resist and to not obey orders from Wagner people, ordering Wagner to stand down. The guy on Prigozihn's left in the video at the Southern HQ is one of those two guys - Alekseev.
 
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Jimbo07 said:
What if we take Prigozhin at his word, that this is not a coup against Putin, but a mutiny against military leadership? If, as rumored, army units are switching sides, this whole thing might be quick and relatively bloodless (there have been a couple clashes involving small arms, helicopters, etc. but no real war). The generals are thrown out (a window), Putin congratulates Prigozhin, then puts him in charge.

Now, what happens if Russia comes roaring back into Ukraine with a competent leader in charge?
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Thus far the news seems to be that the Kremlin is calling this a mutiny and is calling for the arrest of Prigozhin.
And even if Prigozhin really believes Putin will be ok with this, I doubt any dictator is going to be happy when one of his underlings uses a private army to give himself more power.
 
The REALLY interesting thing here, IMO, is that Putin does NOT seem to be the target - which must hurt his ego tremendously.
 
On the counteroffensive front, Russia apparently lost 44 more artillery yesterday. Anyone have a decent estimate on how much more artillery Russia's got to work with in the area?
 
Jimbo07 said:
What if we take Prigozhin at his word, that this is not a coup against Putin, but a mutiny against military leadership? If, as rumored, army units are switching sides, this whole thing might be quick and relatively bloodless (there have been a couple clashes involving small arms, helicopters, etc. but no real war). The generals are thrown out (a window), Putin congratulates Prigozhin, then puts him in charge.

Now, what happens if Russia comes roaring back into Ukraine with a competent leader in charge?
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As I mentioned a couple of times last year, even if the Russians could somehow bring back Zhukov in his prime, it wouldn't help them that much, because they have so many other serious problems. Most of these (such as the NCO problem) would take many years to fix, assuming they even could be fixed without totally reforming Russian society.

Further, Prigozhin does not have a professional military background. He may be competent to beat up on third-world insurgents, but I think you'll find that if he's somehow put in charge of all of Russia's forces in Ukraine, he'll be hopelessly out of his depth.
 
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SpitfireIX said:
Further, Prigozhin does not have a professional military background. He may be competent to beat up on third-world insurgencies, but I think you'll find that if he's somehow put in charge of all of Russia's forces in Ukraine, he'll be hopelessly out of his depth.
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There is more to competent leadership than just military background. If he commands the loyalty of his troops AND the army, they may get a morale boost just from feeling like they're on a winning side, and morale has been sorely lacking. He may be better able to inspire and motivate, even if he's not tactically strong. It may not change the ultimate outcome, but it could sure make things troublesome for Ukraine in the meantime.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I guess there must be a reason he fled toward Rostov. I've been assuming he went to where he has the largest force he can count on in the hope they can rally more to his cause.
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I was thinking, enter a Russian city so he won't be bombed.
 
Jimbo07 said:
There is more to competent leadership than just military background. If he commands the loyalty of his troops AND the army, they may get a morale boost just from feeling like they're on a winning side, and morale has been sorely lacking. He may be better able to inspire and motivate, even if he's not tactically strong. It may not change the ultimate outcome, but it could sure make things troublesome for Ukraine in the meantime.
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I seriously doubt this makes much change for private Conscriptovich. Is Prigozhin really popular with his troops? If he is, will that feeling extend to the regular grunts who were taken there by force and who don't get paid? Even if it does, how long till they realize that as far as they're concerned, the new boss really is the same as the old boss?

Furthermore, I also doubt that replacing top brass would help much. The system is not just rotten at the top, it's corrupt all the way down.

ETA: According to the Russian news bureau, Putin is about to give a televised speech. This could get even more interesting.
 
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