Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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TragicMonkey said:
Can you imagine if we're weren't? All the historical and cultural and shared language excuses Russia's used to justify invading Ukraine would also apply to the US invading Canada. Who would stop us if we did? And yet we don't, and the possibility is considered so remote nobody bothers to fortify that border at all. It's almost as if, as retarded and backwards as America is, even it has matured beyond the conquer-your-neighbors stage of development.
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Until we run out of trees, anyway.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I've never gotten what the point of Russia's trying to field a blue water (or as close to a blue water as Russia can manage) Navy in the Black Sea is actually supposed to accomplish.

There's a reason the Americans don't have a Nimitz Class Carrier Strike Group in Lake Michigan.
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Because the Black Sea contains their only all year ports any where near Russian industrial capacity. Murmansk is too frozen for too much of the year and Vladivostock is too far away and too hard to get to to be a main fleet base.
 
Oystein said:
Again: This would only be an excuse, as the sort of incursion that happened, and which I described, one that has clear defensive military objectives, is NOT actually an existential threat to Russia.
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Of course it would only be an excuse. But it's an excuse that he will spin for the people he rules.
 
theprestige said:
I'm coming around to the opinion that Ukraine does indeed have a real navy, but it's a cutting-edge 21st century navy that doesn't necessarily always look like a conventional 20th century navy.

I mean, Ukraine is probably never going to be very interested in buying expensive capital ships for long-range force projection outside the Black Sea. Their focus is always going to be coast guard, security of the trans-Bosporus trade route, and the implication of commerce raiding.

So at some point, we'll probably see them augment their fleet of boat-torpedoes with guided missile frigates. Probably some drone tenders and ELINT/EW boats. Maybe one or two aircraft-carrying cruisers.

But they're already working on their third generation of boat-torpedo. That's navy enough for me, at the moment.

ETA: And the best part of this attack, in my opinion? They hit a modern intelligence/electronic warfare ship. Of all the ships in Moscow's inventory, this is the one you'd expect to be able to detect and jam the drone control signals. And this is the one you'd expect to be doing exactly that, since it's in the Black Sea and Ukraine has made no secret of its boat-torpedoes. I'm not saying the Ivan Khurs had one job, I'm just saying...
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One of Russia's few successes in this war is that they did manage to neutralise the Ukrainian conventional navy quite quickly. Anyway, the naval capabilities of both sides are largely incidental except insofar that they provide opportunities for Ukraine to embarrass Russia.
 
jeremyp said:
One of Russia's few successes in this war is that they did manage to neutralise the Ukrainian conventional navy quite quickly. Anyway, the naval capabilities of both sides are largely incidental except insofar that they provide opportunities for Ukraine to embarrass Russia.
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Russia does use its Black Sea fleet to get in position to launch cruise missiles along a flight path over Transnistria. It's harder for Ukraine to shoot them down on that flight path without risking AA missile impacts on Moldovia or Romania. When those incidental impacts happens Russia goes into propaganda overdrive claiming that Ukraine is now attacking NATO because dumb conspiracy theory reasons. Use of that flight path allows Russia to hit western Ukraine, something it would otherwise not be able to do anymore.

But other than that, your point stands.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Because the Black Sea contains their only all year ports any where near Russian industrial capacity. Murmansk is too frozen for too much of the year and Vladivostock is too far away and too hard to get to to be a main fleet base.
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Especially if you need to use tugboats
 
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/26/europe/kalashnikov-ak-12-ukraine-upgrade-intl-hnk/index.html

The orcs designed the AK-12, the "main" infantry fighting rifle. I put main in scare quotes because we've seen from plenty of orc social media that conscripts often get rifles made decades ago.

The new feature that caught my eye was the removal of the two-round burst. I have to wonder if that's a response to ammunition expenditure rates and the fact that orc logicians continue to completely **** the neighbor's dog.
 
Craig4 said:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/26/europe/kalashnikov-ak-12-ukraine-upgrade-intl-hnk/index.html

The orcs designed the AK-12, the "main" infantry fighting rifle. I put main in scare quotes because we've seen from plenty of orc social media that conscripts often get rifles made decades ago.

The new feature that caught my eye was the removal of the two-round burst. I have to wonder if that's a response to ammunition expenditure rates and the fact that orc logicians continue to completely **** the neighbor's dog.
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They retained the full auto feature, so ammo conservation isn't it.
 
Craig4 said:
The orcs designed the AK-12, the "main" infantry fighting rifle. I put main in scare quotes because we've seen from plenty of orc social media that conscripts often get rifles made decades ago.
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Or centuries. There has been several reports of Russian conscripts with Mosin-Nagants.
 
Ryokan said:
Or centuries. There has been several reports of Russian conscripts with Mosin-Nagants.
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Which is in one sense quite a testament to its durability.

Looking at the Wiki listing, the list of wars which it has been used in after Russia quit making them is rather impressive.

First Indochina War
Malayan Emergency[3]
Korean War
1954 Guatemalan coup d'état
Hungarian Revolution of 1956[4]
Portuguese Colonial War
Yemeni Civil War
Sino-Indian War
Laotian Civil War
Vietnam War
Cambodian Civil War
Ogaden War
Cambodian–Vietnamese War
Thai–Laotian Border War
Afghan Civil War
Soviet–Afghan War
Tuareg rebellion (1990–1995)
Yugoslav Wars
Georgian Civil War[5]
First and Second Chechen Wars
War in Afghanistan
Iraq War
Russo-Georgian War[citation needed]
Syrian Civil War

and, of course, the war against Ukraine.

Added to that is the fact that Russia made some 37 million of them, so they're liable to be around for quite some time.

Aside from being able to spray the bushes, there really isn't all that much wrong with a five round, clip feedable magazine. You just have to pick your targets.
 
jeremyp said:
One of Russia's few successes in this war is that they did manage to neutralise the Ukrainian conventional navy quite quickly. Anyway, the naval capabilities of both sides are largely incidental except insofar that they provide opportunities for Ukraine to embarrass Russia.
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IIRC Russia still controlled most of Ukraine's navy at the time of invasion after capturing it in 2014 and not really handing any of them back.
 
https://vatniksoup.com/

#vatniksoup is a Twitter thread series (and a hashtag!) where I'll introduce pro-Russian actors and propagandists from around the world, be they so-called "independent journalists", politicians, military personnel or just regular grifters looking to make some easy money.

The series also has introductions and deeper insights on how online propaganda and disinformation works and is spread. For example, I'll talk about troll farms, social media manipulation and Russia's online information operations.

I feel like it is important to introduce these bad actors along with the strategies they employ in the information space. Only this way we can pursue the one thing that's usually referred as the first victim of the war: truth.
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I haven't found a reference to it via a forum search but it seems a useful resource for evaluating the reliability of some commentators via their history. There are a number of more general threads on manipulation of social media etc.
 
Is this the right thread to ask: "What's going on with Lukashenko?"

Apparently tea with Putin followed by hospitalization with possibly extremely serious health concerns. Certainly not an unknown combination.
 
angrysoba said:
Is this the right thread to ask: "What's going on with Lukashenko?"

Apparently tea with Putin followed by hospitalization with possibly extremely serious health concerns. Certainly not an unknown combination.
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It's certainly important. And Lukashenko is looking to have run out of road.
 
angrysoba said:
Is this the right thread to ask: "What's going on with Lukashenko?"

Apparently tea with Putin followed by hospitalization with possibly extremely serious health concerns. Certainly not an unknown combination.
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Whispers would suggest that Lukashenko is done for. He was pretty good at pleasing Putin over the years, but perhaps not good enough. He wouldn't go the extra mile and commit to attacking Ukraine. It's hard to do much more than speculate, though.

If Putin seizes control of Belarus this way, it's certainly more consonant with his skill set than the invasion of Ukraine. It's possible he feels this will help him save face and distract from his military disasters. Strategically it's not a bad idea for his future conquest of the region, such as it is.
 
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