The DeSantis gambit

[Apathia]

desantis is a boring dollar store version of trump

Then I hope he's like the dollar store can opener my roommate purchased.
It couldn't open a can and broke.

 

[Segnosaur]

From: AP News
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Tuesday that he plans to send more than 1,100 National Guard soldiers and law enforcement officers to Texas to assist with border security...

So Meatball Ron is continuing to push the "anti-illegal immigrant" buttons. Which of course plays well to the racist elements of his base (i.e. all of his base).

From a more rational point of view, you might wonder why a "conservative" (someone who theoretically wants to make sure government money isn't wasted) is spending the tax money collected from Florida residents on something that is at best not a Florida issue, and at worst is a fake non-issue.

 

[Apathia]

Small, tiny cog in the grand scheme of things but Jacksonville, the largest city in the US that was still mostly GOP controlled, elected a Democratic Mayor yesterday.

I don't know if it will make a dent against the DeSantis Machine or any meaningful political pushback, but it's still nice.

You go, Hometown! Fight the fascists!

 

[Segnosaur]

Because oftentimes the worst thing that really crazy like Trump does is it lets normal crazy like DeSantis pretend they were never really crazy because, I mean come on at least they aren't really crazy.

DeSantis is the political equivalent of a 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist playing the "Oh come on at least I'm not one of the 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist who thinks hit the planes that the towers were holographic, I'm just a NORAML 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist." game.

A LOT of really, really, really bad politicians are going to be playing some version of the "I know you agreed with every hateful, dangerous, wrong thing that Trump said but he was too over the top, so I'll say all the same hateful, dangerous, wrong things but hey my suit fits properly and I have a decent haircut" game over the next few years.

My hope (and I certainly hope that it isn't a false hope) is that the republican base is split between the nutcases that want the pro-fascist policies (but want to LOOK normal, like those that might support meatball Ron), and those that like the in-your face theatrics that Trump provides.

If Meatball Ron becomes the leader, those that had elevated Trump to god-hood may not bother to vote because "He's not Trump".

 

[JoeMorgue]

My hope (and I certainly hope that it isn't a false hope) is that the republican base is split between the nutcases that want the pro-fascist policies (but want to LOOK normal, like those that might support meatball Ron), and those that like the in-your face theatrics that Trump provides.

If Meatball Ron becomes the leader, those that had elevated Trump to god-hood may not bother to vote because "He's not Trump".

My hope is well and like you I hope it's not a false one.

A 50/50 split between Trump's cult of personality and DeSantis as a mainstream GOP candidate would be a dream come true, a screw up by the Right big enough to even overcome the Left's ability to eat its own young and not agree on anything.

 

[The Atheist]

Problem with that hypothesis is that de Santis' support withered on the vine once Trump threw his hat in the ring.

I'll propose a bet, if de Santis beats Trump I'll wear whatever avatar you propose for a year (within forum rules) and vice versa if Trump beats de Santis. If neither win or one of them doesn't make the starting line, no avatar changes.

Done!

 

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile, Ronnie looks like he rounded up all the women with Stockholm Syndrome in Florida to stand by him as he signed a truly misogynistic piece of legislation, while saying Trump is too soft on abortion: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/30088...or-implying-florida-abortion-ban-is-too-harsh

Trump's problem is that he doesn't want to go all-in on abortion because he knows (has been told) that it's political poison at the general election stage.

The bad news for him is that at the primary stage, the rabid far-right will be the ones making the king.

 

[shemp]

Thanks, Ron!

https://twitter.com/filmthepolicela/status/1658595975047573504

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Yesterday, 16 May 2023, Disney filed a motion to dismiss the countersuit filed in state court by the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD).

(CFTOD is the renamed Reedy Creek Improvement District (RCID). Following passage of a state law in April 2022, the RCID was to have been abolished as of June 2023, but that would have left the state of Florida and Florida taxpayers on the hook for a billion dollars of its debts. To avoid that, Florida passed a different law in February 2023 that kept the RCID in place but renamed it to the CFTOD, allowed the governor to appoint members to its board, and made some other changes affecting the renamed district's authority.)

Disney's motion to dismiss is hysterically funny. Some excerpts, with my highlighting:

INTRODUCTION

Just over a year ago, Disney expressed a political view that Governor DeSantis did not like. In response, the Governor unleashed a campaign of retaliation....

....The Governor promised that the State Legislature would pass a law that “revoked” the contracts. And the Governor pledged that his new local governing board would declare the contracts void.

The Governor made good on his threats....

Shortly thereafter, the Governor followed through on his additional threat to take action against the contracts at the State level. Four days after the board filed this case, the Governor signed the legislation he had previewed, effectively voiding the contracts as a matter of state law by prohibiting the board “from complying with the terms” of the contracts.

That legislation renders Plaintiff’s complaint moot because it makes any order this Court could issue—in either party’s favor—legally irrelevant. ...In short, any declaration about the contracts’ enforceability, voidness, or validity—either way—would be an advisory opinion with no real-world consequence. Trial courts in Florida are forbidden from issuing advisory opinions, and this case should be dismissed.

LEGAL STANDARD

CFTOD’s complaint raises two threshold legal issues—mootness and Florida’s “principle of priority” rule.

First, courts have an obligation to dismiss a moot case....

Second, Florida law recognizes a robust “principle of priority,” under which state proceedings should be stayed pending an earlier-filed federal court proceeding. ...

I am not a lawyer, but it seems to me that with regard to that "principle of priority":

• To argue that its countersuit is not "between substantially the same parties on substantially the same issues", the CFTOD is going to have to argue that its countersuit in state court should be allowed to proceed because the parties and/or issues are different from the lawsuit Disney filed in federal court.
• If the CFTOD makes that argument, however, then the CFTOD won't be able to support its countersuit's argument that Disney's federal lawsuit should be dismissed or paused because it involves the same parties and issues as CFTOD's countersuit.

If you'd prefer to read a genuine legal expert's opinion on this motion to dismiss, you could do worse than read Joe Patrice's account of how Disney Lawyers Seem Honestly Shocked that Ron DeSantis Legal Team Is So Bad At This.

 

[quadraginta]

I said I welcomed bets.

I think Trump's support will wither once de Santis steps in the ring. He's everything the Republicans want - younger, anti-everything-that-triggers-libtards, far right on guns, and free of baggage.

I'm not too sure how long he'll be free of baggage at the rate he's been acting out. If he makes it through the primaries, where no amount of baggage matters, he'll still be going into the general election with enough baggage for anyone who isn't a right-wingnut chud to see it as a couple of boxcar loads.

 

[Ziggurat]

If you'd prefer to read a genuine legal expert's opinion on this motion to dismiss, you could do worse than read Joe Patrice's account of how Disney Lawyers Seem Honestly Shocked that Ron DeSantis Legal Team Is So Bad At This.

Joe Patrice may be a genuine legal expert on some legal matters, but not this. The tell is his claim that the RCID bonds would have been payable by Florida taxpayers in general when RCID was disolved. But that was never going to be the case. Under Florida law, those bonds were always and only going to be payable by taxes on properties within RCID, in other words, Disney. I got that one wrong for a while too, but Florida taxpayers were never going to be on the hook.

As for the specific flaws in his argument, first, CFTOD's case isn't moot as long as the federal case stands. Second, federal priority doesn't apply when you're talking about different laws at issue. And the CFTOD's lawsuit are based on completely different laws than Disney is appealing to in its suit.

For a very different take on Disney's motion:

It's routine to file a motion to dismiss, but they are rarely granted. This one won't be.

 

[tyr_13]

Small, tiny cog in the grand scheme of things but Jacksonville, the largest city in the US that was still mostly GOP controlled, elected a Democratic Mayor yesterday.

I don't know if it will make a dent against the DeSantis Machine or any meaningful political pushback, but it's still nice.

Good for Jacksonville, but it's going to destroy one of my go too retorts about how bad San Fransisco is the fault of liberal commie bird believers, as Jacksonville is almost exactly the same size, was GOP controlled, and has higher crime rates by a non-trival margin.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Second, federal priority doesn't apply when you're talking about different laws at issue. And the CFTOD's lawsuit are based on completely different laws than Disney is appealing to in its suit.

In a post not far above yours, I believe someone pointed out that it's going to be hard for CFTOD to argue that "CFTOD's lawsuit [is] based on completely different laws than Disney is appealing to in its suit" while arguing that Disney's federal suit should be dismissed or paused because the issues are substantially the same as in CFTOD's countersuit.

It's routine to file a motion to dismiss, but they are rarely granted. This one won't be.

I don't expect CFTOD's countersuit to be dismissed, simply because it was filed in a Florida state court, and guess who appoints the judges who serve on that court?

But it's going to be fun to watch the CFTOD try to get Disney's federal suit dismissed.

Furthermore, as explained by Disney's lawyers in their motion to dismiss, there is no way for the Florida state court to arrive at any meaningful decision short of invalidating the Florida state law that was passed after the filing of CFTOD's countersuit. That law was designed and intended to render the countersuit moot by deciding its issues as a matter of state law instead of leaving those issues for a court to decide.

 

[Ziggurat]

Good for Jacksonville, but it's going to destroy one of my go too retorts about how bad San Fransisco is the fault of liberal commie bird believers, as Jacksonville is almost exactly the same size, was GOP controlled, and has higher crime rates by a non-trival margin.

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/jacksonville/crime
violent crime: 6.87 per 1,000 residents
property crime: 26.89 per 1,000 residents

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/crime
violent crime: 5.39 per 1,000 residents
property crime: 48.94 per 1,000 residents

So violent crime rate is about 27% higher in Jacksonville than San Francisco. But property crime is about 82% higher in San Francisco than Jacksonville. Bit of a mixed bag there, but overall crime rate in San Francisco is still significantly higher.

 

[Ziggurat]

In a post not far above yours, I believe someone pointed out that it's going to be hard for CFTOD to argue that "CFTOD's lawsuit [is] based on completely different laws than Disney is appealing to in its suit" while arguing that Disney's federal suit should be dismissed or paused because the issues are substantially the same as in CFTOD's countersuit.

Except the legal issues aren't really that similar. Disney is suing to keep CFTOD's board members and the state of Florida from getting rid of their development agreement, under the contract clause and 1st amendment. But the basis of the CFTOD suit isn't that they have the power and right to get rid of those agreements. CFTOD's suit is claiming that the development agreements were illegal and unenforceable from the start under Florida state law. In other words, even if RCID had not been abolished, even if CFTOD didn't exist, even if DeSantis and the Florida state legislature had taken no action, the development agreements would STILL be illegal and unenforceable, not because of anything any of the defendants in the Disney suit did, but because of what Disney and RCID did or failed to do. That is actually a very different claim and a very different legal issue than what Disney is arguing over in their suit.

And if it's the case that the development agreement was invalid from the start under state law (and there's good reason to believe it is - the validity of the relevant laws themselves aren't in dispute), then the federal courts cannot enforce the development agreements. 5 of the 6 reliefs requested by Disney are out the door right there. The suit isn't dismissed in that case, but it becomes much more limited in scope.

Now, the 6th requested relief (invalidating SB4C and HB9B) would not be directly affected by CFTOD's suit, and if Disney wins on that then they get RCID back and the development agreement doesn't really matter. But that's the longest shot of the bunch.

Furthermore, as explained by Disney's lawyers in their motion to dismiss, there is no way for the Florida state court to arrive at any meaningful decision short of invalidating the Florida state law that was passed after the filing of CFTOD's countersuit. That law was designed and intended to render the countersuit moot by deciding its issues as a matter of state law instead of leaving those issues for a court to decide.

That's not true, because the Disney suit puts the very existence of CFTOD into play by asking the courts to invalidate SB4C and HB9B. If the court were to invalidate SB4C and HB9B, the validity of the development agreements would still be relevant. So unless the federal court were to deny that to Disney AND they did not appeal that component of the decision, then ruling in CFTOD's suit isn't actually moot.

 

[tyr_13]

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/jacksonville/crime
violent crime: 6.87 per 1,000 residents
property crime: 26.89 per 1,000 residents

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/crime
violent crime: 5.39 per 1,000 residents
property crime: 48.94 per 1,000 residents

So violent crime rate is about 27% higher in Jacksonville than San Francisco.

Oh I definitely meant the violent crime rate as the context is almost always regarding unsafe cities due to things like 'liberal da bail reform etc', but there is no way you could have known that's what I meant. That's my fault for leaving the qualifier out.

But property crime is about 82% higher in San Francisco than Jacksonville. Bit of a mixed bag there, but overall crime rate in San Francisco is still significantly higher.

It's a dark testament to the values of our society that things like wage theft are not considered in our 'overall crime' measures.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Done!

Ok we're on.

 

[The Atheist]

If he makes it through the primaries, where no amount of baggage matters, he'll still be going into the general election with enough baggage for anyone who isn't a right-wingnut chud to see it as a couple of boxcar loads.

Wouldn't "right-wingnut chud" describe everyone voting in the Republican primaries?

 

[quadraginta]

Wouldn't "right-wingnut chud" describe everyone voting in the Republican primaries?

Yeah, probably.

I used to think that not all Repugnicans could be tarred with the same brush, but that was a while ago. The past decade or so has convinced me that anyone ethically bankrupt enough to associate themselves with the party for whatever reason must be irredeemable. Also either evil or brain dead.

Certainly since Trump's second run at the White House.

 

[dudalb]

Disney just escalated the fight:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/other/disney-scraps-plan-for-new-florida-campus-amid-desantis-feud/ar-AA1bn0ta

Iger puts it beautifully: Do you want the jobs and taxes or not?

Now reports De Santis will announce his candicay for POTUS next week, and his plan is to go farthre to the right then Trump at almost everything.
The guy is a moron.He stands little chance of getting the Trump voters, and has lost the GOPers looking for a Trump alternative. I think his decision to run solely on the Culture War was a terrible one. A lot of fiscal conservatives don't given a damn about the cultural issues and probably oppose the culture wars. De Santis has thrown their votes away.