I wonder what proportion of those 92 were transgender at the time they committed their offence?
And yes, what I'm saying here is I am fairly certain that a reasonably high proportion of transwomen in prisons a) only transitioned once they'd been charged or convicted, and b) are not sincere in their claims to transgender identity. Incidentally, I'd wager that most of the insincere transwomen in prison are not doing so with the hope of being able to further offend within the women's estate - rather they're doing so because they are aware that they're likely to have an "easier life", with a single cell and less risk of being violently assaulted.
But anyhow, even if one were to believe that every one of those 92 is sincere in their transgender identity.... there are still only two important questions to be addressed:
1) What empirical evidence is there that ciswomen prisoners have suffered materially within women's prisons on account of transwomen being placed in those prisons?
Well... we know that as a general rule, transwomen prisoners with convictions for violence or sexual violence against
ciswomen will not be placed in the women's estate.
And
https://www.theguardian.com/society...onvictions-in-female-jails-lawful-rules-judge
2) Why are 99.98% of transwomen being tarred with the Reefer Madness brush?
This is not the argument you think it is.
First of all, a large part of this discussion is a critique of self-identification, where the simple declaration by a man is taken as all the proof that's needed that he is a transwoman, and it's transphobic to question that. You seem to be suggesting that some men are not sincere when they make this declaration. You do realise that's transphobic? (And the dilemma on whose horns Nicola Sturgeon has so expertly impaled herself.) If not every declaration of a trans identity is valid, how do we tell the difference?
Second, people often do things for more than one reason. Maybe the easier régime of a woman's prison is attractive to some men, but then the presence of women there is also likely to be attractive. These are, almost by definition, not nice men.
So, let's assume you are right, and that some of these "transwomen" are simply at it. Actually, I agree with you about this. But then I'm allowed to think that, because I'm transphobic anyway. Let's take the figures for the Scottish prison population, because we do have figures for that. Hey, you're right! Nearly half the transwomen in the Scottish prison system only discovered their inner feminine essence after being charged with the offence for which they are imprisoned.
Bit of a riddie for Nicola Sturgeon, that one.
So, on these figures, if we assume that only the transwomen who were living as transwomen before their offences are "true trans" (whatever that is), and we can discount the others, where does that leave our figures? Oh yes, much better. Now transwomen only commit sex offences at
283 times the rate of women. And at
two-and-a-half times the rate of other men.
As for the evidence that women suffer when males are places in their prison estate? Have you been living under a rock? Have you never heard of "Karen" White, convicted of assaulting a woman in prison with "her penis"? The articles discussing the risk of women prisoners becoming pregnant while in prison? The testimonies of women released from prison revealing their fear and disgust at having to share intimate spaces with large intact men who often had erections? Most recently Amanda, who went to the prison health service and asked for a contraceptive coil because she was so concerned she might be raped by one of the two transwomen with appalling histories of violence and abuse (including of women) who were only a flimsy shower curtain away from her?
Adam Bryson was convicted of two counts of rape, but he was immediately taken to the women's prison because he was wearing a silly wig and calling himself Isla - bear in mind that decision was only reversed because of public outcry. Bear in mind also Andrew Burns, perhaps the most violent prisoner in Scotland, who had petitioned multiple time to be transferred to a women's prison and had had that request granted, despite having stalked a 13 year old girl. That transfer was only halted because the Bryson case blew up.
Several pages back I listed the male prisoners in Cornton Vale towards the end of last year. To a man they were violent offenders, several with convictions for murder, and several with convictions for violence against women.
Incarcerated women are
terrified of these men. They're big ("Katie" Dolatowski, convicted of two sex offences against girls, is six feet five) and they're aggressive, and a lot of these women have a history of being the victims of assault and domestic abuse. The one upside to being in prison is that there, there are no men to harrass them. Except there are.