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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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From the article:

In another video, posted on December 15, the former girlfriend of a soldier is newly impressed with his courage and begs him to get back together with her.
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jimbob said:
Back on topic,

Dmitriy Zelenov, a Russian oligarch has reportedly died in France after falling down stairs. He was reportedly against the war.
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Odd. I guess there wasn't a window around for him to fall out of.
 
Another excellent and lengthy video from Perun. This one spends an hour looking at Bakhmut.



tl;dr version is that the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut don't seem to make a great deal of sense from a purely military perspective.
 
The Don said:
Another excellent and lengthy video from Perun. This one spends an hour looking at Bakhmut.



tl;dr version is that the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut don't seem to make a great deal of sense from a purely military perspective.
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Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
 
The Don said:
Another excellent and lengthy video from Perun. This one spends an hour looking at Bakhmut.



tl;dr version is that the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut don't seem to make a great deal of sense from a purely military perspective.
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At last check, taking Bakhmut would be a good thing for Russia. With that said, it would have been far more worthwhile had they done it while they still controlled Izyum. Currently, the PR value of taking it after all the hyping that Russia's done might be the biggest potential benefit. As it stands, it might not be wrong to treat it like Severodonetsk 2.0, though. Ukraine seems to be using it to make Russia bleed greatly. Give up a bit of ground when under harsh fire, lure them in, then pound them hard from better positions and retake the ground when Russia retreats. Costly for Ukraine, but so much more Russian blood spilled than Ukrainian, likely. Also, the more Russian forces focused there with the hope that they'll actually take ground, the more success that Ukraine is likely to have in their approaching intended offensives at much more critical locations, like Svatove, Tokmak, Melitopol...

steenkh said:
Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
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As noted above, very possibly. Further, if Ukraine loses at Bakhmut, Russia gains the ability to threaten a bunch more beyond it, which would fairly certainly require relatively more forces to hold, probably with a worse tactical situation overall. That would impair Ukraine's ability to strike elsewhere and also probably end up as a boon to Russian logistics.
 
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steenkh said:
Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
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That was one scenario that Perun considered and he concluded that Ukrainian losses in and around Bahkmut were very likely considerably lower than Russian losses.
 
jeremyp said:
Actually, he’s in a British jail because the Americans want to extradite him and there is a legal process in progress. Assange is not walking around free because he is considered a flight risk. That is entirely his own fault because last time this happened, he took flight.
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More specifically, the indictment is for allegedly helping Manning to break into computer systems to steal secrets, and trying to get others to do likewise. Merely publishing secrets wouldn't suffice for criminal charges against Assange under US law.
 
We already have a thread for Russian propaganda and apologetics relating to this war:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=358173

We know what peace plan Ukraine has embarked on, and that western nations have chosen to support. This thread is for discussing the progress of that plan.

If Ukraine decides to adopt Michel's plan, or some other plan, we can discuss its progress here. Until then, though, it should probably go in the other thread, so that this one can remain focused on unfolding events and their import.
 
steenkh said:
Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
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As with any defender in a strongly entrenched position, Ukraine is suffering far fewer losses than Russia at Bakhmut, and most of those losses are going to be at the lower end of severity. Bakhmut is a permanent ulcer in the Rissian side causing it to constantly bleed.

So yeah it does make sense. Even if Russia were in a position to throw a human wave at the town, it may still make strategic sense for Ukraine to hold it to the last soldier.
 
steenkh said:
Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
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Land is a valuable currency in war. Generally a defender can weaken an attacker simply by letting them advance unopposed. The "friction" of advance takes its own toll on the advancing army.

But it's not just about trading land for degradation of the enemy. It's also about what's on that land. People, homes, railways, bridges. Art and architecture. If Ukraine withdraws from Bakhmut, there's another line of settlements and infrastructure behind it. Another tranche of Ukrainians who will have to be displaced. Sooner or later, Russia will advance far enough to reach a strategic objective that improves their chances of winning.

Ukraine will have to stand and fight. The point of trading land for easy degradation of the enemy's strength is not to avoid a fight. The point is to find and fight the enemy's main strength in a time and place of your choosing. The point of withdrawal is to set better conditions for the decisive battle you seek.

Land is a valuable currency, but it's not the only currency.

It seems clear that the Ukrainians have determined that the exchange rate for land around Bakhmut is not profitable to them. It seems clear that Ukraine considers the Wagner group a concentration of enemy strength worth meeting in decisive battle. And it seems clear that now, in Bakhmut, is the time and place of Ukraine's choosing for that battle.

And it seems clear that Ukraine is applying in Bakhmut the Napoleonic maxim, "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
 
The Don said:
Another excellent and lengthy video from Perun. This one spends an hour looking at Bakhmut.



tl;dr version is that the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut don't seem to make a great deal of sense from a purely military perspective.
Click to expand...


For those who don't watch Jake Broe, he had Perun as a guest last weekend. Excellent interview.

 
steenkh said:
Does it make a sense for Ukraine to hold it with the huge losses involved? Verdun comes to mind. In that case both sides suffered grievously, and the defending French broke eventually (though not at Verdun). The French won the war eventually, of course.
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In this case, Russia has been taking very heavy losses at Bakhmut - much more than Ukraine.

There seems to be potential now for Russian losses in Bakhmut to sharply decrease. Mostly because there are reports that Ukraine has advanced in the past two days. Can't take losses in Bakhmut if you can't even get there in the first place.

The most recent Russian advances in Bakhmut occurred when Ukraine rotated forces, moving tired soldiers out and fresh soldiers in. That's a difficult thing to do while fighting is on-going and it showed. Russia managed to move forward a bit.

Now a few weeks later those fresh forces have found their footing and learned the lay of the land. So they recaptured the areas that Russia had gained during the force rotation.

Today's reports are that Russia has been pushed entirely out of the residential parts of the town, and pushed back along roads north and south of town.
 
crescent said:
There seems to be potential now for Russian losses in Bakhmut to sharply decrease. Mostly because there are reports that Ukraine has advanced in the past two days. Can't take losses in Bakhmut if you can't even get there in the first place.
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The actual language used is of "fronts" (often translated as "directions"). My understanding is that a lot of the Russian casualties on the Bakhmut front haven't been in Bakhmut itself, but in trying to reach and capture the city.

My expectation is that we'll continue to hear about casualties "in the Bakhmut direction" for some time, until the Russians are finally driven back to some other strategic position such that the ensuing fighting is no longer considered "fighting for Bakhmut".
 
crescent said:
In this case, Russia has been taking very heavy losses at Bakhmut - much more than Ukraine.

There seems to be potential now for Russian losses in Bakhmut to sharply decrease. Mostly because there are reports that Ukraine has advanced in the past two days. Can't take losses in Bakhmut if you can't even get there in the first place.

The most recent Russian advances in Bakhmut occurred when Ukraine rotated forces, moving tired soldiers out and fresh soldiers in. That's a difficult thing to do while fighting is on-going and it showed. Russia managed to move forward a bit.

Now a few weeks later those fresh forces have found their footing and learned the lay of the land. So they recaptured the areas that Russia had gained during the force rotation.

Today's reports are that Russia has been pushed entirely out of the residential parts of the town, and pushed back along roads north and south of town.
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I see, the Ukranians are following General Patton's advice about holding your position..


"I don't want to get any messages saying we are holding your positions. I am not interested in holding on to anything except the enemy. We are going to hold on to him by the nose, and kick him in the butt....."
 
SpitfireIX said:
Zelensky is a native Russian speaker. The fact that "native Russian speaker" does not equal "Russia supporter" has been explained to you several times; why do you keep pretending it does?
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Because somebody buys into the "Ukrainians are really Russians " nonsense.
 
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