Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[MarkCorrigan]

Why on Earth would Ukraine agree to withdraw to the February boundaries? What kind of lunatic would accede to a Foreign power unilaterally declaring the annexation of parts of their country and invading?

 

[Michel H]

Why on Earth would Ukraine agree to withdraw to the February boundaries? What kind of lunatic would accede to a Foreign power unilaterally declaring the annexation of parts of their country and invading?

Sometimes, borders need to change, to evolve.

This has happened a lot in past centuries, and probably not always for so good reasons.

In this case, a legal basis is the principle of self-determination of peoples.

Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk have all voted to join Russia.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... I would like to see Russian forces go back to their February 24 positions.

But this can be achieved only if the Ukrainians are ready to make some significant concessions, especially about ceding territory (Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk). Almost painless concessions ...

Even to suggest that the anguish and humiliation of surrendering large areas of your homeland to a foreign invader could be "almost painless concessions" indicates a strange disconnection from the emotions provoked and a complete failure to empathise with how people actually feel about such things.

It makes it all the more weirdly incongruous that you then try to tell us how "To really understand this current crisis".

No, Michel. Your views on what Ukrainians might find painless is so removed from how human beings actually think and feel that it has absolutely no value.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Sometimes, borders need to change, to evolve.

And sometimes they don't.

Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk have all voted to join Russia.

The world does not believe those votes were honest. Why on earth would anyone consider them trustworthy?

 

[Michel H]

And sometimes they don't.



The world does not believe those votes were honest. Why on earth would anyone consider them trustworthy?

Some reliable sources indicate they are (see for example the two links at the end of post #1280 - did you watch the video?).

Ukraine has a Russian-speaking population. Some of these Russian-speaking people want to remain with Ukraine, there are also some who are pro-Russian, and are happy to be part of Russia.

 

[dudalb]

You talk abou tthe bombing of Serbie, forget that Serbia's little attempt at Genodice in Kosovo is what brought it about.
How long until you argue that Japan was justified in bombing Pearl Harbor because the US cut off selling oil to Japan becuase of it's aggresion in China?

 

[Steve]

Some reliable sources indicate they are (see for example the two links at the end of post #1280 - did you watch the video?).

Ukraine has a Russian-speaking population. Some of these Russian-speaking people want to remain with Ukraine, there are also some who are pro-Russian, and are happy to be part of Russia.

Those people should go to Russia. Killing their Ukrainian neighbors is not an acceptable method of being part of Russia.

 

[Ziggurat]

Killing their Ukrainian neighbors is not an acceptable method of being part of Russia.

True. But it's a very old method.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I hope that they will, but I fear that their huge reserves of natural resources of all kinds will mean that a lot of countries, especially those with developing economies, will prefer to look the other way.

IMO the number of countries which will actively support Russia will be small and limited to the usual suspects like Syria, Iran and North Korea but China, India and a lot of countries in Africa may happily import Russian natural resources at a significant discount.

I reckon that in the short to medium term, either Russia will be carved up with a few small republics surviving in the old European Russia or it will be come the very impoverished puppet state of another, much stronger country.

Remember, Russia is now a prime candidate for the resource curse, after the few last vestiges of its former Soviet industry got hollowed out because of sanctions. Even if a miracle (for Putain, not anybody else) occurs, and they pull a victory out of the bag, Russia is in for a very hard, very poor and very troubled future.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I don’t see this incredibly strong position. Ukraine has certainly had battlefield dominance until now, and Russian officers and equipment have indeed proved to be low grade, but Russia is a huge country with an enormous population. Russian economy could be set at war footing, and the army quality can be restored.

This has happened before. When Nazi Germany attacked Russia, the army was also of low quality, but it was turned around after huge losses, and eventually Russia prevailed. I know there was lend-lease, and all that, but Russia has not lost that much today in comparison to 1941, and the increase in quality came from within.

Today, the problem is corruption, and then it was purges, but in both cases, far-reaching reforms are necessary, and it remains to be seen if they will be implemented.

Today, Russia is the invader and has occupied huge areas of Ukraine. That gives Russia plenty of land to give up slowly until the army is reformed. There is no reason for Russia to give up just yet.

I believe the problem for Putin is that the hearts of the soldiers cannot be mobilised in an unprovoked attack on another country than when it was their actual homeland they were called to defend.

The problem for Ukraine is that Western support might eventually vane as the war drags on.

Ukraine is in a good position, but with the enemy occupying that much land, I don’t think we can say that the position is incredibly good. The more time passes, the Russian position at the negotiation table improves, if the Russians can hold on to the occupied land.

Already we see calls for the two parties to negotiate, and presently that can only mean for Ukraine to accept status quo.

Russia's problems are much worse now than in 1941, first and foremost, their population is much smaller at about half of the USSR's. And given that their population is both ageing and in much worse health and also that their youngest and brightest are fleeing in droves, the population implosion that was happening before the war will greatly accelerate.

Secondly their stockpiles meant that they could only field an attacking army that, at best, matched the defending Ukrainian army.

Thirdly, their industrial base is much smaller than the USSR's, not alone did they lose a lot of industry after the breakup (mostly to Ukraine), but also their industry was hollowed out over the years and finally utterly crushed by the sanctions imposed first in 2014 and then in 2022.

Fourthly, the USSR in general had weapons systems comparable to Nazi Germany in 1941-1945 (lend lease bulked up support equipment for the most part and allowed the Soviet industries to concentrate on armaments); the Russian equipment, even before the war, wasn't comparable to modern western systems, and is now reverting to 1960's or 1970's vintage equiment or even older (units are being issued with 1911 Nagants for front line duties!).

It turns out that Russia was a paper tiger all along.

 

[steenkh]

There is some common sense in what you wrote here, lobosrul5, but you should not forget that the Russians have been made angry by "sanctions" since 2014, the cutting-off of fresh water supply to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal, and shelling of Donetsk by Ukrainian forces.

Why should the democratic countries be concerned that Russians are “angry” because we do not accept their naked aggression?

Why should Ukraine help the aggressor by supplying him with water?

As far as I know, the Russians or their proxies in Donetsk have been shelling Ukraine. Why should Ukraine not return the favour?

 

[Michel H]

Why should the democratic countries be concerned that Russians are “angry” because we do not accept their naked aggression?

Why should Ukraine help the aggressor by supplying him with water?

As far as I know, the Russians or their proxies in Donetsk have been shelling Ukraine. Why should Ukraine not return the favour?

When you make the Russians angry too much, you get a certain war which started on February 24, 2022.

Not nice.

If Donetsk get what they want (namely, belonging to Russia), there is no reason why anyone should shell anyone, and water can flow, and people can smile again.

 

[Olmstead]

When you make the Russians angry too much, you get a certain war which started on February 24, 2022.

Not nice.

If Donetsk get what they want (namely, belonging to Russia), there is no reason why anyone should shell anyone, and water can flow, and people can smile again.

Russia would just incite another minority of extremist seperatists to go kill people and depopulate a region, and then we get to listen to how parts of Finland want to joint Russia from you in a decade.

 

[Craig4]

There is some common sense in what you wrote here, lobosrul5, but you should not forget that the Russians have been made angry by "sanctions" since 2014, the cutting-off of fresh water supply to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal, and shelling of Donetsk by Ukrainian forces.

All Russia has to do is return to their 2013 borders. There's no need for them to be angry at being punished for the theft another nation's territory. Thieves when caught are generally punished.

Russia needs to learn its place and that place is within its own borders.

 

[a_unique_person]

I have seen some incredibly twisted thinking around here, but the Pro Putin Anti Ukraine crap in the last few pages of this thread takes the cake.

It's straight from the pro-putin commentaries out there.

Russia is heroically fighting the whole of the western world.
Ukraine is hopeless and doesn't stand a chance.

Russian genius gave them a lot of artillery to smash Ukraine.

Russian losses have been minimal.

Putin wants to negotiate a peace right now.

Zelensky heads a "regime".

Zelensky gets his orders from Biden and the UK.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Feeding trolls again ?

 

[a_unique_person]

I think at this point we should all agree that the Budapest memorandum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on, both in terms of Russia's willingness to abide by it and in terms of everyone else's willingness to enforce it.

Ukraine needs to join a real alliance, with real obligations for mutual defense. And by real I don't mean idealistic "international law" legal, but "actually ratified as a matter of national law by the legislatures of its member states" legal.

You can say that what Russia is doing right now is illegal, but the truth is that Russia has nine tenths of the law on its side already.

The pro Russian commentators say this war is because The West reneged on the Minsk accords.

 

[Craig4]

When you make the Russians angry too much, you get a certain war which started on February 24, 2022.

Not nice.

If Donetsk get what they want (namely, belonging to Russia), there is no reason why anyone should shell anyone, and water can flow, and people can smile again.

Did you hear the joke about the Russian "soldier"? A Russian soldier just got done looting some pensioners and was on his way to rape a school girl when a HIMARS rocket exploded near him and blew off his entire left side. A Russian medic found the body and was robbing the corpse when he found the soldier's phone was still working. After taking what little the soldier had in his pockets, the medic thought he should let the poor guy's family know what happened to him. Using the remaining right hand, the medic unlocks the phone with the fingerprint scanner and calls the guy's mom. He says not to worry. There was an explosion but her son was all right. The mom asks if that means she gets half the death benefit. The medic says, "Yeah, the right half". Smiling now?

 

[arthwollipot]

I believe Ukraine is fundamentally handicapped by the fact they are trying (but not with great success) to conquer (Russian-speaking) territories which have voted to join Russia (Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk).

They have not voted to join Russia. This is a lie. This is Russian propaganda.

Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk have all voted to join Russia.

They have not voted to join Russia. This is a lie. This is Russian propaganda.

 

[arthwollipot]

Edited by Agatha: 

Removed quote (and reply) of material sent to AAH

I just want to make sure that every reader is very clear that the sham "referendums" in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk were criminally fraudulent and not recognised as valid by any country other than Russia.

The idea that the people of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk voted to join Russia is pure Russian propaganda and lies.