Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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Zelensky (who is, of course, the president of Ukraine), has a well known avisor, who is often quoted.

His name is Mykhailo Podolyak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykhailo_Podolyak).

His tweets may reveal, in a rather frank and straightforward way, what the leaders of Ukraine are really thinking.

His two latest tweets are:


(https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M).

As you can see, he is praising "Ukrainian victory", "depletion of Russian economy", "isolation of Russia", "internal sabotage within Russian Federation", and expressing contempt for the president of Russia.

He doesn't seem to be a man who is seeking a deal which would bring peace through mutual concessions, and would be good for everyone (and this deal is easy to find).

And? What he says appears to be the obvious truth of the current situation. Putin is NOT interested in negotiations. A deal with mutual concessions that would be good for everyone is indeed easy to find, though. Russia withdraws completely from Ukraine, including Crimea, while returning those they kidnapped, and Ukraine doesn't go further on the offensive and conquer Belgorod to hold it hostage until reparations are made. If Crimea actually truly wants to rejoin Russia, a real referendum with actual legitimacy could be held at some point in the future with international supervision. Similar could potentially be done with the Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia's invasions and sham referendums allow for no legitimacy whatsoever, even if they actually did want to join Russia, which is bad for everyone.


This is the problem that I have: the West is funding extremism, people who seek an unnecessary "victory". Even if this could be achieved, what would be the cost for the Ukrainians, and many others?

Your complaint is against reality, Russian propagandist. The West may be funding "extremism," but not of the kind and nature that you try to pretend. Russia is acting as a vicious aggressor and Ukraine has every right to defend themselves from that vicious aggressor. The harsh reality is that Russia is not interested in peace and Ukrainian capitulation will fairly certainly end up being notably worse for Ukrainians than fighting to defend their homes. Looking solely at the negative consequences of one option and ignoring the negative consequences of the option that you recommend is unwise, to put it kindly. Ukrainian victory is the only currently feasible path to actually stop the vicious aggression, not negotiations.


I feel like adding that your attempted argument here is an utterly intellectually bankrupt attempt to defend your previous post's utterly nonsensical argument, and that remains true even if it wasn't just you ignoring the parts of reality that you don't like.
 
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As you can see, he is praising "Ukrainian victory", "depletion of Russian economy", "isolation of Russia", "internal sabotage within Russian Federation", and expressing contempt for the president of Russia.
Of course he is. Everyone whose country was enduring an unprovoked attack by a neighbouring country would express contempt for the man who ordered it, and who is consequently directly responsible for the death and suffering of millions of his fellow citizens.

He doesn't seem to be a man who is seeking a deal which would bring peace through mutual concessions, and would be good for everyone (and this deal is easy to find).

However easy it might be to find it would not solve the problem because (a) it would inevitably reward naked, unprovoked aggression, setting a dangerous precedent, and (b) Putin has shown that he cannot be trusted to keep to it. He would simply use the time it bought him to regroup and rearm and then launch another attack.

This is the problem that I have: the West is funding extremism, people who seek an unnecessary "victory".
The only way to stop Putin doing this again and again is to totally defeat him this time.

Even if this could be achieved, what would be the cost for the Ukrainians, and many others?

If it cannot be achieved, the cost for the Ukrainians and all the other countries he would invade will be incalculable.
 
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Zelensky (who is, of course, the president of Ukraine), has a well known avisor, who is often quoted.

His name is Mykhailo Podolyak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykhailo_Podolyak).

His tweets may reveal, in a rather frank and straightforward way, what the leaders of Ukraine are really thinking.

His two latest tweets are:


(https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M).

As you can see, he is praising "Ukrainian victory", "depletion of Russian economy", "isolation of Russia", "internal sabotage within Russian Federation", and expressing contempt for the president of Russia.

He doesn't seem to be a man who is seeking a deal which would bring peace through mutual concessions, and would be good for everyone (and this deal is easy to find).

This is the problem that I have: the West is funding extremism, people who seek an unnecessary "victory". Even if this could be achieved, what would be the cost for the Ukrainians, and many others?

Expelling a hostile invader is hardly extremism. All the orcs have to do is return to their 2013 borders and the war is over. That's it. It's a small price to pay for peace for Russia. Why is Russia being so obstinate in not doing to simple and easy thing to win the war? Returning to their 2013 borders is not a hard thing.
 
Whose agony?

It looks like the US has found a very powerful way of converting tens of billions of aid (https://www.csis.org/analysis/aid-ukraine-explained-six-charts) into power outages in Ukraine.

Former students in debt will have to wait.

Russia fired the missiles and drones. The US did not cause the power outages. We're also assisting in reparing the damage the orcs cauased on the power grid. The only blame for the power outages goes to Russia. If they hadn't fired the missiles the power grid in Ukraine would be fine.
 
I apologize for not being more clear. I think it was, and is, a war. A war in which one of the belligerents consistently and egregiously violates the spirit and the letter of the Geneva conventions. But still a war. I am not agreeing with you that it is not a war. I hope this is clear enough. I hope that you will interpret my past and future expressed opinions in the context of me not agreeing with you, rather than interpreting them as somehow agreeing with you.


The privileges accorded by the Geneva convention are reserved for those belligerents that observe the Geneva convention. That's the whole point of the convention.

In Bin Laden's case as in Putin's I pick the Geneva convention. For the (to me) obvious reason that in both cases we're dealing with commanders-in-chief of an army at war.

I know you regard it as a war. But that elevates the terrorist to the level of soldiers. They do not deserve that status since they specifically target civilians. These are criminals, no more or less. They should therefore be treated as criminals.
 
The analogy of the abusive husband once again occurs to me. Apparently not only is it an abused wife's fault for refusing to submit, anyone who tries to help her defend herself is equally responsible for the damage done by the husband's subsequent blows.

Ex-husband: Russia and Ukraine are divorced.
 
Zelensky (who is, of course, the president of Ukraine), has a well known avisor, who is often quoted.

His name is Mykhailo Podolyak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykhailo_Podolyak).

His tweets may reveal, in a rather frank and straightforward way, what the leaders of Ukraine are really thinking.

His two latest tweets are:

No need to be scared of post-Putin future. There is only one way to end the war: military defeats of Russia on the battlefield + sanctioned depletion of Russian economy + isolation of Russia on world markets + internal sabotage within Russian Federation = Ukrainian victory and recovery of global security.
Putin is absolutely incapable of negotiating. I guess, all European leaders who talk to him periodically are aware of it. He directly declares neglecting international law, desire to seize territories and kill Ukrainians until his demands are met. Solution is obvious – Ukrainian victory
(https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M).

As you can see, he is praising "Ukrainian victory", "depletion of Russian economy", "isolation of Russia", "internal sabotage within Russian Federation", and expressing contempt for the president of Russia.

He doesn't seem to be a man who is seeking a deal which would bring peace through mutual concessions, and would be good for everyone (and this deal is easy to find).

This is the problem that I have: the West is funding extremism, people who seek an unnecessary "victory". Even if this could be achieved, what would be the cost for the Ukrainians, and many others?

The two tweets are accurate. Putin and Putin's Russia have shown themselves to be utterly untrustworthy. If there was a peace negotiated today. Russia would eventually manufacture some "justification" for invading again.

For Ukraine to be safe from Russian aggression, Russia has to be expelled from Ukrainian territory and weakened to the point where it can't invade again, at least, not until Ukraine is in NATO.
 
Ukraine is in an incredibly strong position. Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine has stopped the Russian advance, Ukraine has battlefield dominance, Russian Troops, Officers, and Equipment have been shown to be of the lowest grade, and Putin has demanded Ukrainian cleansing while being untrustworthy.

It is perfectly within Ukraine's rights to destroy any Russian aspirations of keeping some of the stolen land. Do not give them one inch of Ukrainian soil.

Russia will be relegated to a terrorist state, Putin will be a war criminal, an international force will probably need to secure their Nukes.
 
Ukraine is in an incredibly strong position. Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine has stopped the Russian advance, Ukraine has battlefield dominance, Russian Troops, Officers, and Equipment have been shown to be of the lowest grade, and Putin has demanded Ukrainian cleansing while being untrustworthy.

It is perfectly within Ukraine's rights to destroy any Russian aspirations of keeping some of the stolen land. Do not give them one inch of Ukrainian soil.

Russia will be relegated to a terrorist state, Putin will be a war criminal, an international force will probably need to secure their Nukes.

I hope that they will, but I fear that their huge reserves of natural resources of all kinds will mean that a lot of countries, especially those with developing economies, will prefer to look the other way.

IMO the number of countries which will actively support Russia will be small and limited to the usual suspects like Syria, Iran and North Korea but China, India and a lot of countries in Africa may happily import Russian natural resources at a significant discount.
 
Ukraine is in an incredibly strong position. Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine has stopped the Russian advance, Ukraine has battlefield dominance, Russian Troops, Officers, and Equipment have been shown to be of the lowest grade, and Putin has demanded Ukrainian cleansing while being untrustworthy.
I don’t see this incredibly strong position. Ukraine has certainly had battlefield dominance until now, and Russian officers and equipment have indeed proved to be low grade, but Russia is a huge country with an enormous population. Russian economy could be set at war footing, and the army quality can be restored.

This has happened before. When Nazi Germany attacked Russia, the army was also of low quality, but it was turned around after huge losses, and eventually Russia prevailed. I know there was lend-lease, and all that, but Russia has not lost that much today in comparison to 1941, and the increase in quality came from within.

Today, the problem is corruption, and then it was purges, but in both cases, far-reaching reforms are necessary, and it remains to be seen if they will be implemented.

Today, Russia is the invader and has occupied huge areas of Ukraine. That gives Russia plenty of land to give up slowly until the army is reformed. There is no reason for Russia to give up just yet.

I believe the problem for Putin is that the hearts of the soldiers cannot be mobilised in an unprovoked attack on another country than when it was their actual homeland they were called to defend.

The problem for Ukraine is that Western support might eventually vane as the war drags on.

Ukraine is in a good position, but with the enemy occupying that much land, I don’t think we can say that the position is incredibly good. The more time passes, the Russian position at the negotiation table improves, if the Russians can hold on to the occupied land.

Already we see calls for the two parties to negotiate, and presently that can only mean for Ukraine to accept status quo.
 
I believe the problem for Putin is that the hearts of the soldiers cannot be mobilised in an unprovoked attack on another country than when it was their actual homeland they were called to defend.

It's certainly harder to motivate people for something like that, but this is also a problem Putin has exacerbated by his own actions. This isn't a war, it's a "special military operation". That distinction matters. And he didn't make that distinction because he's an idiot, but because it's part of a bigger strategy for maintaining power: cultivate apathy. Russians are politically apathetic, by design.

Unlike Hitler or Stalin, Putin doesn't actually want the public to be radicalized. He wants them to be detached from politics. And it's a strategy that made a lot of sense. The idea is that a politically apathetic public will simply let Putin do what he wants to do, because they don't feel like they have much stake in the details of politics. And that strategy has worked. Political opposition to Putin can't gain traction, because mostly people don't care.

But that kind of apathy also prevents serious national mobilization of the sort you're describing. Stoking nationalism carries serious risk for Putin. It would help with the war effort, but if there's no payoff, no victory to justify the sacrifice, all that patriotic zeal could easily turn against him.

The problem for Ukraine is that Western support might eventually vane as the war drags on.

Ukraine is in a good position, but with the enemy occupying that much land, I don’t think we can say that the position is incredibly good. The more time passes, the Russian position at the negotiation table improves, if the Russians can hold on to the occupied land.

I'm not sure time is really on Russia's side. If western support drops, Ukraine is indeed in trouble. But there's only two countries whose support is indispensable to Ukraine, and that's the USA and Poland. The USA because we've got the most weapons and money to give them and the most intelligence assets (read: spy satellites), and Poland because they provide the critical logistics link to get aid into the country. The aid of other European nations is helpful (sometimes very helpful), but Ukraine could keep fighting without it. Poland is in this for the long haul, their support is basically guaranteed, because they hate Russia with a white hot passion born of bitter experience. US support is likely to remain strong too. We are in many ways "war weary" from our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. But no US lives are at stake here. And that makes a huge difference. I don't think US support is waning.

Russia has plenty of manpower to call upon if it needs to, though there's a price to doing so and they may not ultimately be willing to pay. But they are constrained on material. They're losing equipment fast, and I don't think they have the industrial capacity to produce more at the same rate that they're losing it. And this isn't like WW2, they can't just convert tractor factories into tank factories. They need (relatively) high tech weapons, and their production capacity on high tech weapons was kinda garbage, even before the war. And sanctions have made that worse. If they dip too deeply into their stockpiles, then they're going to destroy their ability to defend themselves anywhere else. And Russia has far more enemies than just Ukraine that they worry about.

Already we see calls for the two parties to negotiate, and presently that can only mean for Ukraine to accept status quo.

I'm not sure that's the case. From a strategic perspective, now is probably the best time for Russia to negotiate while conceding the least. As time drags on, I think their position will deteriorate, and they will have less and less to bargain with. The problem with negotiations right now is that Ukraine feels (probably correctly) that they don't have to concede much, if anything, and Russia doesn't yet realize that it will be forced to concede quite a lot.
 
Podolyak (Zelensky's advisor) has tweeted again:
Russia has already lost — mobilization only delays its defeat. After Ukraine liberates its territories and RF’s defeat will be official, everything possible must be done to prevent recurrence of ru-aggression. It's simple: tribunal, sentences to war authors and Ukraine as NATO member.
(https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1602217583658389506).

This led to the following replies:
pjds - I dont want to freeze for Zelenskyy said:
Last time I checked Russian citizens had reliable access to electricity.
(https://twitter.com/PeteJDS/status/1602304354383548417)

Bulos Qoqish said:
Russia is anything BUT "defeated"; as a matter of fact, whatever the illegality of same, it is methodically reducing Ukraine's industrial infrastructure to rubble. The war is a stalemate.

You are doing Ukraine's cause no favor, by broadcasting nonsense propaganda like this.
(https://twitter.com/QoqoBulos/status/1602329947758120960)

The massive financial support provided by the US, European Union and UK is probably partly used to pay such individuals.
 
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I believe Ukraine is fundamentally handicapped by the fact they are trying (but not with great success) to conquer (Russian-speaking) territories which have voted to join Russia (Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk).

This is a fundamental moral weakness which cannot be compensated by the US-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers.
 
Russia has plenty of manpower to call upon if it needs to, though there's a price to doing so and they may not ultimately be willing to pay.
Russia has lost almost 100,000 men in Ukraine, and lost about 900,000 (mostly men) through them fleeing Russia since the start of the war, either in disgust/fear or to avoid the draft.

Of the population of Russia, they constitute a demographic crisis, as they were born during a low birth rate in Russia, after the collpase of the Soviet Union. Meaning that even though the country has about 147million, their young men are relatively in short supply. When you draft the remaining men, you will get an economic drain to further make it difficult for them to pay for the war effort.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine#Impact
 
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... The massive financial support provided by the US, European Union and UK is probably partly used to pay such individuals.

You imagine the West is paying the Russian trolls who troll social media with pro-Russian propaganda? How did you come to that weird conclusion?
 
I don’t see this incredibly strong position. Ukraine has certainly had battlefield dominance until now, and Russian officers and equipment have indeed proved to be low grade, but Russia is a huge country with an enormous population. Russian economy could be set at war footing, and the army quality can be restored.

This has happened before. When Nazi Germany attacked Russia, the army was also of low quality, but it was turned around after huge losses, and eventually Russia prevailed. I know there was lend-lease, and all that, but Russia has not lost that much today in comparison to 1941, and the increase in quality came from within.


This is a false analogy. First, Russia is not the Soviet Union. Second, despite your attempt to minimize the significance, the Soviet Union received an enormous amount of lend-lease assistance from the US and the UK. Third, Russia's economy and military-industrial complex are being significantly degraded by Western sanctions. Fourth, modern weapons require much longer lead times and more complex inputs than their WWII counterparts. Finally, Stalin had a much more extensive and effective repression apparatus than Putin has.
 
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