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Cont: Global warming discussion V

Meanwhile:
The world has failed to reach an agreement to phase out fossil fuels after marathon UN climate talks were “stonewalled” by a number of oil-producing nations.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/19/world/cop27-egypt-agreement-climate-intl/index.html

Or in other words: Right on track for the ***********

How is the outlook for desert regions like Saudi Arabia on a heated planet?
I hope they are one of those that burn first.
Well, unfortunately and of course, the profiteers will able to flee to any place they want, once their holy beloved desert becomes uninhabitable.
 
The big takeaway from Cop27? These climate conferences just aren’t working

Rather than a bloated global talking shop, we need something smaller, leaner and fully focused on the crisis at hand


In the end, the recent shenanigans at the Cop27 meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh at least ended up making modest progress on loss and damage: high-emissions nations agreeing to pay those countries bearing the brunt of climate mayhem that they had little to do with bringing about.

But, yet again, there was no commitment to cutting the emissions accelerating this crisis, without which this agreement is nothing more – as one delegate commented – than a “down-payment on disaster”. No seasoned observers are of the opinion that the world is any nearer tackling the climate emergency. Indeed, the real legacy of Cop27 could well be exposing the climate summit for what it has become, a bloated travelling circus that sets up once a year, and from which little but words ever emerge.

It really does beggar belief, that in the course of 27 Cops, there has never been a formal agreement to reduce the world’s fossil fuel use. Not only has the elephant been in the room all this time, but over the last quarter of a century it has taken on gargantuan proportions – and still its presence goes unheeded. It is no surprise, then, that from Cop1 in Berlin in 1995, to Egypt this year, emissions have continued – barring a small downward blip at the height of the pandemic – to head remorselessly upwards.
 

I'm shocked that representatives of so many countries are unable to come to agreement over a situation threatening them all. The UN works so well that something like climate change should be a piece of cake.
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Meanwhile, a thought occurred to me today - we're now in the third La Nina season in a row, and the last time al El Nino event occurred, the global temperature leapt by 0.3oC.

Christ knows what it'll be when the inevitable El Nino occurs, but I'll be surprised if we don't bust the +1.5o mark by 2025.
 
Christ knows what it'll be when the inevitable El Nino occurs, but I'll be surprised if we don't bust the +1.5o mark by 2025

I said much the same to a statistics wonk who insisted the 40s timeline that the UN touts for 1.2 was mostly correct.
I said it was a decade off.
Sans active decarboning ....learning to live with and try and preserve biodiversity in the face of the very inevitable 2c might make better use of funds.
This is the approach I'd like to see heavily promoted and funded

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3-V1j-zMZw
 
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27 °F (-3 °C) at 8:00am this morning.

No big deal. Warsaw's weather is known for having wild swings. Global warming is just making them wilder.

It was 5 degrees above the previous record, set 30 years ago. Previous increases in the record have been in increments of tenths of a degree - the new record is more than startling.
 
It was 5 degrees above the previous record, set 30 years ago. Previous increases in the record have been in increments of tenths of a degree - the new record is more than startling.
Yes, but this is just weather, not climate. The next few days saw maximum temperature drop to 8°C and minimum to -4°C.

From 1901 to 2021 the average yearly temperature in Poland went up from 7.4°C to 9.4°C, a 2°C increase. The average minimum winter temperature since 1901 was -3.3°C, but on Dec 14th 2022 it was -14° minimum and -4°C maximum in Warsaw.

So we see that the variability is much higher than the average, and is increasing. The question is how bad does this make it? One or two exceptionally warm winter days in a year may be memorable, but probably not a big deal in themselves. A pattern of exceptionally high and/or low days would be. But you won't hear about that on the news.

Few people will bother to tease out the information needed to properly evaluate this event. That gives deniers the opportunity to shout "But weather isn't climate!". "So one day in Warsaw was the warmest winter temperate on record by 5°C? Big deal", they say, "that doesn't mean global warming caused it". And they are right. I wish the news media would provide us with than more just 'sound bites', like perhaps a graph of max/min temperatures for this winter vs previous years. Then we would all see the clear fingerprint of global warming on it, and understand what it means for the future.
 
Yes, but this is just weather, not climate.

Not necessarily. It takes some statistical analysis that may never be performed for this specific example, but a sufficiently unlikely outlier can indeed be attributed to climate rather than weather.
 
Federal government to lower emissions ceiling on biggest polluters by 4.9 per cent each year

The federal government will impose stricter carbon emissions limits on the nation's biggest polluters from July, cutting an accumulated 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by the end of the decade.

Around 215 of the biggest polluting facilities in Australia are subject to the 'safeguard mechanism'. Tightening how much companies could emit before being penalised was one of the government's signature policies to reach a 43 per cent emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2030.
 

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