The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[jimbob]

If this accused person did it we should know for sure based on how many copies of Sims 3 she has.

Exactly.

It is not prejudice to point out that the FSB has history of inept fakes

 

[theprestige]

Wait, what? So US 'foreign intelligence' services don't do stuff like, you know, offing people anymore?

Honestly? I'm not sure they ever really did that stuff. At least not often, and rarely on foreign soil. And I'm pretty sure if they are, they shouldn't be. They're intelligence services, not assassination services. It must be a very rare case indeed, that an intelligence asset infiltrating a foreign country's security or political apparatus is better used to commit murders than to gather intelligence.

These days? I doubt the CIA has the kind of assets in place in Russia to do much of either. And whatever assets they do have in Russia to gather intelligence, I doubt they're in a position to arrange car bombs for oligarchs and apparatchiks.

And these days, it seems if the US actually wants someone dead, it's in connection to the global war on terror. They tend to be military targets, and they either get droned or they get arrested and renditioned. Renditioning is shady stuff, to be sure, but get this: It tends to happen in countries where the CIA station can operate openly. Where the CIA can bring in PMC contractors to do the muscle work. Where allied security services can turn a blind eye, or even contribute to the effort.

How is that supposed to work in Moscow? The CIA station chief at the Embassy there tasks one of his CIA officers to meet with one of his local contacts? Pass the guy a package under the table in a cafe on the Volga? The guy sneaks into the oligarch's garage with the package and a screwdriver, cleverly installs the bomb in the wrong car, and sneaks out again?

Why on earth would the asset do that? Why on earth would the CIA want him to? What's the risk/reward on a job like this?

My money is on local infighting between rival factions, over some business of Dugin's that we're not privy to. I mean, I'd never heard of the guy before yesterday, but somehow you're already certain he must have known or done something that meant the CIA needed him dead? Honestly I don't think the CIA is in the assassination business. And if they were moonlighting, I don't think they'd have the chops to pull it off.

 

[Ziggurat]

My money is on local infighting between rival factions, over some business of Dugin's that we're not privy to.

Don't know how credible a claim this is, but a local group has already claimed responsibility. If true, it's not rivalry within Putin's government, but rather opposition to Putin from within Russia.

It's possible that this group is claiming credit for something they didn't do just to boost their own profile, in which case inter-faction rivalry is still a possibility. But it seems at least plausible that they did it. In any case, local actors seem much more likely than foreign agents.

 

[Wudang]

I struggle to find words to describe this. A series of tweets about Russian elites belief in insane conspiracy theories. I was hoping it was a parody account but no.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1562004902762749952

 

[The Don]

I struggle to find words to describe this. A series of tweets about Russian elites belief in insane conspiracy theories. I was hoping it was a parody account but no.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1562004902762749952

To be honest, some of those claims such as developing psychic super-soldiers and consulting astrologers wouldn't be unfamiliar to people in the US back in the '80s.


edited to add.....

And Uri Geller had quite the career back then as well so maybe it's not just the Russians who have/had a belief in insane things

 

[eerok]

I struggle to find words to describe this. A series of tweets about Russian elites belief in insane conspiracy theories. I was hoping it was a parody account but no.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1562004902762749952

That's some pretty soft-headed thinking by people who should know better. So it's not just Putin that's crazy.

 

[lobosrul5]

I would advise everybody here to acknowledge that we ha f as of yet exactly zero reliable evidence about who may have laid the bomb that killed Darya Dugina, nor why, nor whether she was the intended primary target, or her father, or both - or pehaps even someone else (is it possible that someone from thf inner rank and file would meet the Dugins, privately or on business?).
No one so far takes responsibility. Slme reject responsibility. Some point blame. But in war, any and all such statements can easily be lies, so we really don't know.
Arguments like "I know how Russians are, therefore..." do not belong in a skeptik's forum, where we pay a premium on sound logic supported by evidence-backed premises.

I think we should also acknowledge that Dugina, while despicable nazi scum, was a civilian, and thus not a legitimate target in war nor peace, and that her murder is just that: murder. One of the worst crimes in a civilized society. The perpetrators belong in jail for a very long time, and do not deserve tl be construed as heros, lest you are prepared to leave a civilization based on the rule of law behind for good.

Yeah I disagree with that.... for a war of existential consequences such as Ukraine is facing. Anything they can do, to help their cause baring a very few exceptions (ie WMD, targeting children, murdering POW's) is totally fine IMO. If killing a higher up, close to Putin, shows they can get to anyone and maybe sow fear and discord in Russia that could have an effect. That said, I very much doubt the Ukrainian government knew about, or authorized the attack. The PR from if would be a bit ugly.

 

[Garrison]

To be honest, some of those claims such as developing psychic super-soldiers and consulting astrologers wouldn't be unfamiliar to people in the US back in the '80s.

It wouldn't be unfamiliar to anyone who played the Red Alert games either...

 

[Jimbo07]

Russians are really trying to make hay of her death at the UN.

They're dangerous as heck, but this smacks slightly of desperation!

 

[jimbob]

Honestly? I'm not sure they ever really did that stuff. At least not often, and rarely on foreign soil. And I'm pretty sure if they are, they shouldn't be. They're intelligence services, not assassination services. It must be a very rare case indeed, that an intelligence asset infiltrating a foreign country's security or political apparatus is better used to commit murders than to gather intelligence.

These days? I doubt the CIA has the kind of assets in place in Russia to do much of either. And whatever assets they do have in Russia to gather intelligence, I doubt they're in a position to arrange car bombs for oligarchs and apparatchiks.

And these days, it seems if the US actually wants someone dead, it's in connection to the global war on terror. They tend to be military targets, and they either get droned or they get arrested and renditioned. Renditioning is shady stuff, to be sure, but get this: It tends to happen in countries where the CIA station can operate openly. Where the CIA can bring in PMC contractors to do the muscle work. Where allied security services can turn a blind eye, or even contribute to the effort.

How is that supposed to work in Moscow? The CIA station chief at the Embassy there tasks one of his CIA officers to meet with one of his local contacts? Pass the guy a package under the table in a cafe on the Volga? The guy sneaks into the oligarch's garage with the package and a screwdriver, cleverly installs the bomb in the wrong car, and sneaks out again? Why on earth would the asset do that? Why on earth would the CIA want him to? What's the risk/reward on a job like this?
My money is on local infighting between rival factions, over some business of Dugin's that we're not privy to. I mean, I'd never heard of the guy before yesterday, but somehow you're already certain he must have known or done something that meant the CIA needed him dead? Honestly I don't think the CIA is in the assassination business. And if they were moonlighting, I don't think they'd have the chops to pull it off.

The last two paragraphs,

Exactly.

Neither the CIA, nor the SBU.

Of course, to riff on the the quip about Kitchener - she was a mediocre addition to the Russian war effort but a damn good recruitment poster martyr

 

[jimbob]

I struggle to find words to describe this. A series of tweets about Russian elites belief in insane conspiracy theories. I was hoping it was a parody account but no.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1562004902762749952

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1562072174193680386?s=20&t=1DCQz1YOTAVkBV2kcZUjqA

Tying that to the murder of Dugin's daughter as part of a thread. And again coming back to the idea that she is a good victim for a staged attack. Which Putin has used before.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Irrespective of whoever was responsible for the murder, it's an opportunity to be exploited by Putin and we can expect it to be played for all it's worth.

(And no I don't think it in any way likely the Ukrainians had any hand in it.)

 

[crescent]

Irrespective of whoever was responsible for the murder, it's an opportunity to be exploited by Putin and we can expect it to be played for all it's worth.

(And no I don't think it in any way likely the Ukrainians had any hand in it.)

Wednesday Aug 25 (tomorrow) is Ukrainian Independence Day. Russia can add Dugina's death to the list of grievance as causus belli for some sort of missile air-raid blitz on Kyiv and Lviv. At least, that's what many are worrying about.

 

[theprestige]

Irrespective of whoever was responsible for the murder, it's an opportunity to be exploited by Putin and we can expect it to be played for all it's worth.

(And no I don't think it in any way likely the Ukrainians had any hand in it.)

Wednesday Aug 25 (tomorrow) is Ukrainian Independence Day. Russia can add Dugina's death to the list of grievance as causus belli for some sort of missile air-raid blitz on Kyiv and Lviv. At least, that's what many are worrying about.

Yeah, but as Josef Stalin might ask, how many Battalion Task Groups does the Sainted Dugina's Memory actually have?

 

[Oystein]

Yeah I disagree with that.... for a war of existential consequences such as Ukraine is facing. Anything they can do, to help their cause baring a very few exceptions (ie WMD, targeting children, murdering POW's) is totally fine IMO. If killing a higher up, close to Putin, shows they can get to anyone and maybe sow fear and discord in Russia that could have an effect. That said, I very much doubt the Ukrainian government knew about, or authorized the attack. The PR from if would be a bit ugly.

Okay, everybody else - show of hands, please: Who is in favor of murdering civilians they way lobosrul5 is?

"Murder is okay - if only you feel desperate enough"

 

[theprestige]

Okay, everybody else - show of hands, please: Who is in favor of murdering civilians they way lobosrul5 is?

"Murder is okay - if only you feel desperate enough"

lobosrul5 seems to have sketched out a pretty reasonable limit on killing enemy civilians in wartime. I think it could be refined a bit, but assassinating high officials and agents in the enemy government doesn't strike me as a big moral problem. At the very least, everyone in the chain of command between Putin and the troops is fair game in my book, along with their neighbors in the succession scheme.

 

[Oystein]

lobosrul5 seems to have sketched out a pretty reasonable limit on killing enemy civilians in wartime. I think it could be refined a bit, but assassinating high officials and agents in the enemy government doesn't strike me as a big moral problem. At the very least, everyone in the chain of command between Putin and the troops is fair game in my book, along with their neighbors in the succession scheme.

Oh. I did not know Mrs. Dugina was a "high official" or "in the enemy government" and also "in the chain of command".

I am sure you have evidence that she is any of those, right?

Oh - wait: You say that Dugina was merely a journalist and political activist - not in any government or command position? A civilian, you say? Are YOU saying Dugina was a legitimate target for liquidation?
I am asking, because it appears that Ukraine does NOT think Dugina was a legitimate target for assissination. Because Ukraine denies responsibility premised on the fact that Ukraine is not a criminal let alone terroristic state - implying that Ukraine considers here assasination a crime, an act of terrorism.

So please, theprestige, can you be very clear? Do you think that Dugina was a legitimate target for assassination - yes or no?
Do you at least think that, by lobosrul5's own standards, Dugina was a legitimate target for assassination - yes or no?

He said that anyone "close to Putin" would be okay. Do you sign that? Is Putin's niece fair game? His cleaning lady?

Is your hand UP, theprestige, when I ask for a show of hands for "Who is in favor of murdering civilians they way lobosrul5 is?"

 

[theprestige]

Oh. I did not know Mrs. Dugina was a "high official" or "in the enemy government" and also "in the chain of command".

I am sure you have evidence that she is any of those, right?

Oh - wait: You say that Dugina was merely a journalist and political activist - not in any government or command position? A civilian, you say? Are YOU saying Dugina was a legitimate target for liquidation?
I am asking, because it appears that Ukraine does NOT think Dugina was a legitimate target for assissination. Because Ukraine denies responsibility premised on the fact that Ukraine is not a criminal let alone terroristic state - implying that Ukraine considers here assasination a crime, an act of terrorism.

So please, theprestige, can you be very clear? Do you think that Dugina was a legitimate target for assassination - yes or no?
Do you at least think that, by lobosrul5's own standards, Dugina was a legitimate target for assassination - yes or no?

He said that anyone "close to Putin" would be okay. Do you sign that? Is Putin's niece fair game? His cleaning lady?

Is your hand UP, theprestige, when I ask for a show of hands for "Who is in favor of murdering civilians they way lobosrul5 is?"

Yeah, pro war propagandists adhering to the enemy's cause are fair game, in my book.

I'd explain further, but it might not matter. Let me ask you this: Do you believe there is any scope for black operations in the interest of national security? Which is to say, do you think it can be morally correct for a government to commission a criminal act, if it will advance national security?

 

[dudalb]

I am reading that a number of Putin's officials hated Dugin's guts, since in the past couple of months after the war bogged down, he blamed then for the Ukraine fiasco. Recently he predicted some kind of super purge is coming, where Putin would get rid of most of his advisors. Dugin was reluctant to say anything bad about Putin, but played the 'The King Has Been Badly Advised and Badly Served" angle bigtime. Plenty of reason for people in Putin's government to want to get rid of Dugin.

 

[Oystein]

Yeah, pro war propagandists adhering to the enemy's cause are fair game, in my book.

I'd explain further, but it might not matter. Let me ask you this: Do you believe there is any scope for black operations in the interest of national security? Which is to say, do you think it can be morally correct for a government to commission a criminal act, if it will advance national security?

I thank you for raising your hand for excusing murder of civilians who are NOT in government, who are NOT in the chain of command - who are, yes, civilians.

I shall know henceforth what kind of character I am talking to under the nick "theprestige".

And no, I am not falling for your transparent Whataboutism.

ETA: But please, be my guess and embarrass yourself further: How does the liquidation of a civilian like Darya Dugina improve the national security of Ukraine? (Or of the USA, or Estonia...)