The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[SpitfireIX]

I’m surprised that they’re not blaming the CIA.

Putin doesn't want to fight America. He wants to fight Estonia.

 

[IsThisTheLife]

Difficult to know, isn't it.

Apparently Dugin's daughter was also a public figure. Is she someone who could have plausibly been seen as a threat to Putin? If so, maybe that might suggest Putin had her assassinated.

On the other hand, it could have been other Russian groups, or someone aiming for Dugin, or of course Ukrainian groups who wanted to get to Putin allies if they couldn't get directly to Putin.

It's pretty horrible, whoever did it and whatever the motive.

It's not horrible at all if you conform to the corporate media narrative. Reporting varies from ambivalence to gloating about a "fascist" getting car-bombed.

There's also the usual fact-free conspiracy theorising about the likely perpetrators (which you can see faithfully parroted on this very forum).

 

[SteveAitch]

I don't think anyone takes the CIA seriously anymore.

Something they would probably find useful - a complacent target is easier to work on...

 

[IsThisTheLife]

I don't think anyone takes the CIA seriously anymore.

Wait, what? So US 'foreign intelligence' services don't do stuff like, you know, offing people anymore?

 

[Lplus]

Wait, what? So US 'foreign intelligence' services don't do stuff like, you know, offing people anymore?

Why? Did you want them to?

 

[jimbob]

It's not horrible at all if you conform to the corporate media narrative. Reporting varies from ambivalence to gloating about a "fascist" getting car-bombed.

There's also the usual fact-free conspiracy theorising about the likely perpetrators (which you can see faithfully parroted on this very forum).

It's not the least horrible killing in this war. That goes to the admin of the Wagner Telegram group who posted enough information on social media for Ukraine to target his base.

But although I wasn't aware of her existence, I am quite pleased to read her obituary.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

It's not horrible at all if you conform to the corporate media narrative. Reporting varies from ambivalence to gloating about a "fascist" getting car-bombed.

There's also the usual fact-free conspiracy theorising about the likely perpetrators (which you can see faithfully parroted on this very forum).

Normally I'd agree, but if someone who is clearly calling for massive violence against civilians from the safety of never going to the front and who clearly never intended to be in any danger while calling for more bombardments gets killed I cannot shed a tear.

 

[dudalb]

Why? Did you want them to?

He is playing the "US is not better" card, Something Putin suporters are doing a lot of.

 

[dudalb]

I still think most likely scenario is the "Godfather" car bomb scernario. Whoever did it expected Durgin to be in that car.

 

[jimbob]

I still think most likely scenario is the "Godfather" car bomb scernario. Whoever did it expected Durgin to be in that car.

He doesn't seem that important, although he had been slapped down by the Kremlin a short while before.

But yes, either (mob) business as usual, FSB, or infighting.

I'm now inclined more towards the first two. Hoping it's FSB, because that would also show a losing of control.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

It's not horrible at all if you conform to the corporate media narrative. Reporting varies from ambivalence to gloating about a "fascist" getting car-bombed...

Examples? My go-to media tends to be Reuters or BBC, neither of which are prone to sensationalism. Which "corporate media" have you seen "gloating"?

 

[Aridas]

For a moment of more lighthearted poking, I quite enjoyed this little HIMARS O'Clock video on Twitter.

 

[The Don]

Putin doesn't want to fight America. He wants to fight Estonia.

He may want to, but does he have the resources to attempt to do so ?

I suppose that Russia could try to launch cyber attacks but I can't really see hundreds or thousands of Russian tanks rolling across the Estonian border.

 

[Aridas]

He may want to, but does he have the resources to attempt to do so ?

I suppose that Russia could try to launch cyber attacks but I can't really see hundreds or thousands of Russian tanks rolling across the Estonian border.

Probably? Estonia's defense force, on a quick check, is... 7200 people, for reference. They've got equipment, of course, but Russia, even in the crap position that they're in now, could probably just effectively roll over their military forces far too quickly for it to matter much. Russia's not attacking them because of NATO, not because of Estonia. With that said, even with NATO making it so Russia probably wouldn't dare to actually attack militarily, bullying the weak and vulnerable and using that to increase one's perceived standing is pretty much exactly what bullies do.

With that said, I sorta feel like this is a mostly pointless tangent, so I'll stop there for the moment.

 

[Oystein]

I would advise everybody here to acknowledge that we ha f as of yet exactly zero reliable evidence about who may have laid the bomb that killed Darya Dugina, nor why, nor whether she was the intended primary target, or her father, or both - or pehaps even someone else (is it possible that someone from thf inner rank and file would meet the Dugins, privately or on business?).
No one so far takes responsibility. Slme reject responsibility. Some point blame. But in war, any and all such statements can easily be lies, so we really don't know.
Arguments like "I know how Russians are, therefore..." do not belong in a skeptik's forum, where we pay a premium on sound logic supported by evidence-backed premises.

I think we should also acknowledge that Dugina, while despicable nazi scum, was a civilian, and thus not a legitimate target in war nor peace, and that her murder is just that: murder. One of the worst crimes in a civilized society. The perpetrators belong in jail for a very long time, and do not deserve tl be construed as heros, lest you are prepared to leave a civilization based on the rule of law behind for good.

 

[jimbob]

I would advise everybody here to acknowledge that we ha f as of yet exactly zero reliable evidence about who may have laid the bomb that killed Darya Dugina, nor why, nor whether she was the intended primary target, or her father, or both - or pehaps even someone else (is it possible that someone from thf inner rank and file would meet the Dugins, privately or on business?).
No one so far takes responsibility. Slme reject responsibility. Some point blame. But in war, any and all such statements can easily be lies, so we really don't know.
Arguments like "I know how Russians are, therefore..." do not belong in a skeptik's forum, where we pay a premium on sound logic supported by evidence-backed premises.

I think we should also acknowledge that Dugina, while despicable nazi scum, was a civilian, and thus not a legitimate target in war nor peace, and that her murder is just that: murder. One of the worst crimes in a civilized society. The perpetrators belong in jail for a very long time, and do not deserve tl be construed as heros, lest you are prepared to leave a civilization based on the rule of law behind for good.

We know more than that.

We know that the FSB has *not* correctly identified a Ukrainian woman as the perpetrator.

6 hours to identify the supposed-killer is utterly implausible.

or https://twitter.com/VBTC_22/status/1561790438746587136

So... An Ukranian Woman part of the Azov Regiment took her young daughter and cat to Russia months ago. She planted a bomb in Dugin's car, killing his daughter.She drove right away to Estonia with her daughter and cat still in her car while leaving her ID in Moscow. ������

She was killed as an internal Russian matter. There are several explanations. But Ukraine wasn't involved.

 

[The Don]

Taken at face value, it does seem somewhat implausible that the FSB would allow a member of the Azov regiment, her child and her cat to swan around Russia for a month or more, plant a bomb and then flee to Estonia whilst knowing about her.

Then again an argument from incredulity is a logical fallacy, so I suppose we should consider that it is possible that the bombing really was carried out by the FSB suspect.

 

[Oystein]

We know more than that.

We know believe, based on common prejudice, that the FSB has *not* correctly identified a Ukrainian woman as the perpetrator.

6 hours to identify the supposed-killer is utterly implausible.

or https://twitter.com/VBTC_22/status/1561790438746587136

FTFY

She was killed as an internal Russian matter. There are several explanations. But Ukraine wasn't involved.

And your evidence for this is...what, exactly?
Of course you still have ZERO evidence for this specukation. Very precisely ZERO. Zero point zero zero zero zero. And you know it.

 

[jimbob]

We know more than that.

We know believe, based on common prejudice, that the FSB has *not* correctly identified a Ukrainian woman as the perpetrator.

6 hours to identify the supposed-killer is utterly implausible.

or https://twitter.com/VBTC_22/status/1561790438746587136

FTFY

She was killed as an internal Russian matter. There are several explanations. But Ukraine wasn't involved.

And your evidence for this is...what, exactly?
Of course you still have ZERO evidence for this specukation. Very precisely ZERO. Zero point zero zero zero zero. And you know it.

There is not zero evidence. We have the evidence that the FSB produced* themselves.


Natalia Vovk apparently was in Russia for several weeks driving a mini cooper that sometimes had Ukrainian plates

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1561683266016616448

And which was sold in Ukraine on 19th August.

She committed this attack and escaped suddenly - leaving her Azof battalion ID card for the FSB to pick up.

The Ukrainians say that the Azof ID cards have them all wearing Azof multicam uniforms - which this didn't

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/22/7364339/ (Ukrainian source, so not unbiased but has a clear photo of the ID card - which does indeed look photoshopped as people say (check round the hair)



Also they managed to identify the suspect incredibly quickly and it turns out to be someone they identified as dangerous in April. Who decided to take her utterly-compromising ID card with her on a mission to kill someone who is utterly unimportant to the Ukrainians, but of marginal importance alive to Russia (and greater importance, dead).

That is not zero evidence.


We also have a history of inept FSB staged evidence.

So yes, we can be fairly sure that Ukraine didn't do it - because it would require that mix of amazing competence and utter stupidity on the part of the Ukrainians, that lots of conspiracy theories rely on.


You have the ability to plant a car bomb in Moscow, and you chose to pick an unimportant victim who would make a great martyr (young women do) and you also carry out this attack - after spending weeks undercover and at risk of detection, but you carry your "I'm an enemy agent card" with you into the country.

Nope - there is evidence, and it is evidence that the FSB are lying.


*in both senses.

 

[Wildy]

If this accused person did it we should know for sure based on how many copies of Sims 3 she has.