The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[The Don]

Your calculation is completely wrong. You should use a kilometer per week. Not per day. And I am still nice to Russians.

Why one kilometre a week ?

Severodonesk was captured almost exactly 2 months ago. They're now on the outskirts of Bakhmut, around 60km away. That's considerably more than one kilometre a week IMO.

 

[Klimax]

Why one kilometre a week ?

Severodonesk was captured almost exactly 2 months ago. They're now on the outskirts of Bakhmut, around 60km away. That's considerably more than one kilometre a week IMO.

There's your error. You think Russians are on the outskirt of Bakhmut. They are not! There is still after days since it was claimed no evidence they are even on that cursed crossroad! ISW marked it as Russian claim, DefMon3 outright has it as empty space. There is no video of fighting there, there is no video by Russians from there. Simply nothing...

 

[The Don]

There's your error. You think Russians are on the outskirt of Bakhmut. They are not! There is still after days since it was claimed no evidence they are even on that cursed crossroad! ISW marked it as Russian claim, DefMon3 outright has it as empty space. There is no video of fighting there, there is no video by Russians from there. Simply nothing...

I don't simply "think" that the Russians are on the outskirts of Bakhmut, a number of reliable sources say that they are.

According to ISW, geolocated footage confirmed that the Russians captured the KNAUF factory near Soledar a week ago. That's very close to Bakhmut.

 

[a_unique_person]

Well, it is down to factory by factory now.

 

[SpitfireIX]

Interesting titbit from ISW regarding the effect of sanctions on Russia's air force:



https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21

If this is true then IMO that's encouraging. If Russia's ability to conduct airstrikes and to try to secure air superiority is significantly reduced then that'd be a game-changer for Ukraine.

Also Belarus will be risking more severe sanctions on themselves - indicating that they Lukashenko really are is "all in".

FTFY

I also thought the following from yesterday's report was interesting: "Russian forces are likely not training new recruits in discipline, creating an entitled force engaging in disorderly conduct in Russia and illegal conduct in Ukraine."

Scary but not surprising. It also reminds me that I read a while back that the British Army program to train Ukrainian soldiers includes instruction in the law of armed conflict, despite the abbreviated nature of the course.

 

[The Don]

Looks like the Russians are grasping at straws to blame Ukraine for the murder of Darya Dugina.

Russia' Federal Security Service (FSB) now says it has solved the case and that Ukraine is directly responsible.

Ukrainian officials had already denied any involvement in the explosion.

But in a statement carried by Russian media outlets, the FSB contends that the Ukrainian special services hired a contractor who arrived in Russia in mid-July with her young daughter.

It alleges she rented an apartment in the same building as Ms Dugin to learn about her life. The security agency also said the suspects used a Mini Cooper car which used three different sets of licence plates.

The suspect escaped to Estonia after the explosion, the FSB said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62634359

 

[Drewbot]

A good Nazi like Dugin would give up his daughter for the cause.

It really sounds like a Russian plot, and Dugin was up for it.

 

[eerok]

Seems that either bad luck or both were targeted. She was pretty politically active too.

She was a notorious propagandist and POS who pushed for the invasion of Ukraine along with her father. Good riddance.

 

[The Don]

A good Nazi like Dugin would give up his daughter for the cause.

It really sounds like a Russian plot, and Dugin was up for it.

His comments could certainly be interpreted in that way:

"We only need our victory. My daughter sacrificed her young woman's life to its altar. So please, achieve it!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...037e8559a1fa43751d1212&pinned_post_type=share

 

[timhau]

Looks like the Russians are grasping at straws to blame Ukraine for the murder of Darya Dugina.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62634359

They are blaming Ukraine, so Russian internal affair it is.

 

[sackett]

No might or maybe about it

....sackettmight be talking about the Predator or Reaper UCAVs, but he's not talking about the Global Hawk.

I'm talking about arming Hawks with defensive air to air missiles to improve their survivability. Yes, at 60,000 feet.

 

[theprestige]

I'm talking about arming Hawks with defensive air to air missiles to improve their survivability. Yes, at 60,000 feet.

Global Hawks lack the airframe to mount such missiles, lack the avionics to control such missiles, and lack the situational awareness to use such missiles effectively.

You could modify the airframe, but it turns out we already have airframes that can mount missiles. You could add the avionics, but only by deleting some recon capability. And no drone developed so far has the situational awareness to engage in air combat.

And really, if you look at aerial reconnaissance generally, you'll note that recon aircraft are pretty much never given self-defense weapons. The Global Hawk's closest relative, the U-2, never had defensive missiles. JSTARS doesn't have defensive missiles. Nothing in the RC-135 family is armed.

The Hawk wasn't designed to carry weapons. Adding weapons to it would mean sacrificing valuable reconnaissance payload. And would mean altering the design until it was a completely different drone. One that already exists: the Predator/Reaper family, which has lower altitude and less recon capability, but also carries weapons. And that's fine... Unless what you really want is really serious high-altitude recon, and you're willing to delete the weapon systems in favor of more cameras and other sensors to get it.

 

[Klimax]

I don't simply "think" that the Russians are on the outskirts of Bakhmut, a number of reliable sources say that they are.

Link them! I can bet it is going to be ISW and your standard bad reading of their map and complete ignorance of its legend.

According to ISW, geolocated footage confirmed that the Russians captured the KNAUF factory near Soledar a week ago. That's very close to Bakhmut.

Not Bakhmut. And old news. They posted video from that factory like a week ago. haven't got anywhere since then.

 

[jimbob]

I'm tending more towards it being an FSB operation, given how they claimed to have found a Ukrainian responsible for this, and the possible casus belli of claiming she's in Estonia.

 

[trustbutverify]

A good Nazi like Dugin would give up his daughter for the cause.

It really sounds like a Russian plot, and Dugin was up for it.

Obvious false flag. I'm only half kidding.

 

[Allen773]

They are blaming Ukraine, so Russian internal affair it is.

I’m surprised that they’re not blaming the CIA.

 

[theprestige]

I’m surprised that they’re not blaming the CIA.

I don't think anyone takes the CIA seriously anymore.

 

[SpitfireIX]

They are blaming Ukraine, so Russian internal affair it is.

They would have blamed Ukraine if she'd been killed by a meteorite.

 

[SpitfireIX]

I'm tending more towards it being an FSB operation, given how they claimed to have found a Ukrainian responsible for this, and the possible casus belli of claiming she's in Estonia.

They must not have had enough explosives to blow up an apartment building.

 

[plague311]

Do we even know if it was really her in the car, at this point? I never trust any Russian news source.

Knowing the Russian's she's probably in another country all together, sitting on a beach drinking...white Russians.