The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[sackett]

If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.

 

[Wudang]

Interesting twitter thread about why "there is often a gap between Russian weapons on paper versus their performance in the field."

There are two primary problems with Russian weapons: integration and cognitive load.

https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1553745899871952897

Reading some of the replies and linked threads is useful.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.

The Russians/Occupation Authorities think the attack came from within Sevastopol. At least that what they told Ria Novosti.
Link:https://t.me/rian_ru/172777

The governor of Sevastopol clarified that during the attack of the Ukrainian​

A drone attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was carried out from Sevastopol, search operations are underway to find the perpetrators, Crimean senator Kovitidi told RIA Novosti

(Translated with Google Lens)

 

[theprestige]

Tornado has longer range, but HIMARS - an evolution of MLRS - probably has better integration and cognitive load. On the other hand, integration with NATO's way of warfare is probably not so valuable to Ukraine.

 

[jimbob]

If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.

The Russians/Occupation Authorities think the attack came from within Sevastopol. At least that what they told Ria Novosti.
Link:https://t.me/rian_ru/172777



(Translated with Google Lens)

Coming from Sevastopol would also be encouraging. It means that Russia needs more security even where it has had control since 2014

 

[BobTheCoward]

Have you tried to find out?

Yes

 

[sackett]

Coming from Sevastopol would also be encouraging. It means that Russia needs more security even where it has had control since 2014

The Russians have said (sorry, no link; I'm speaking to you from my lovely home here in the Pleistocene) that it was a homemade drone and "low powered," meaning the warhead I suppose.

Odd that such a thing would cancel their Navy Day.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The Russians have said (sorry, no link; I'm speaking to you from my lovely home here in the Pleistocene) that it was a homemade drone and "low powered," meaning the warhead I suppose.

Odd that such a thing would cancel their Navy Day.

They don't have much of a navy left in the Black Sea to celebrate.

 

[Craig4]

They have a strategy. Seize the South to connect Crimea so there is a direct land connection.

That's an objective not a strategy.

 

[sackett]

Surrendering to the Russians doesn't sound like a good idea. I wonder if they understand the consequences for them. Do they really want to be at war with men who are fighting for their lives?

Will they want to try surrendering to such men?

 

[a_unique_person]

That's an objective not a strategy.

That's why it's a strategy. To strengthen their presence in Crimea.

 

[a_unique_person]

Another Russian dissident apparently poisoned outside Russia.

 

[Ziggurat]

They don't have much of a navy left in the Black Sea to celebrate.

No, it's still all in the Black Sea.

Just... not all on the surface.

 

[Aridas]

Not that the Russian speakers argument deserves to be treated with anything less than scorn, but... for the nearly inevitable next fringe reset, those interested might be willing to poke at something like this.

On December 1st 1991 Ukraine held an independence referendum:

Registered voters: 37,885,555
Turnout: 31,891,742 (84,2%)

FOR 28,804,071 (92,3%)
️AGAINST 2,417,554 (7,7%)

As you can see from the below map, even the regions with RU speaking population voted FOR.

Generally by a very sizable margin. Crimea was lowest with only a simple majority. Everywhere else was above 80% in favor of freedom from Russia. I wonder if sentiment is even higher, now.

 

[a_unique_person]

Now the Russians have assassinated a businessman developing the Ukraine wheat business with a missile aimed at his home.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The first ship carrying grain has left Odessa

Turkish and Ukrainian officials say the ship left the port early today bound for Lebanon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62375580

 

[Craig4]

Even money the Russians force it into Tarsus.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Even money the Russians force it into Tarsus.

How would they do that?

Tarsus is in Turkey and not even a port.

The ship is 30 miles out of port and currently making 10.7 knots heading south east accompanied by a Tug

 

[Jack by the hedge]

How would they do that?

Tarsus is in Turkey and not even a port.

The ship is 30 miles out of port and currently making 10.7 knots heading south east accompanied by a Tug

Fingers crossed for them. If it were me, I'd like to read the fine print of what the Russians agreed to before going anywhere near.

So far it appears the Russians don't believe they promised not to bombard the ports or assassinate civilians who run the exporting business.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Turned south west now, still accompanied by a Tug.

It's not a little ship, 38,000 tons