The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Klimax]

Rapid response after a few shells requires good equipment, communications and motivated men.

Russia is still very dangerous.

Even blind man swinging arms while randomly moving can be dangerous.

 

[Klimax]

You really need a lot of holes for that to be effective. There are tanks that lay short bridges that will cover a fair number of holes quite well as long as the piers are still mostly in place.

You have to really keep an eye on loading of the bridge. Antonov's bridge is out of order after only about 12 holes.

 

[Andy_Ross]

A good indication that Russia are desperate and know that they can't win is the use of their missiles on random civilian targets in cities away from the fighting.

If they could identify useful military targets along the front or in rear support areas they wouldn't be wasting precision munitions on cities.

 

[Andy_Ross]

In other news, celebration of Navy Day in Crimea has been cancelled.
The reason given by Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev was an alleged Ukrainian drone strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.

 

[Craig4]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...t-drone-attack-black-sea-fleet-hq-2022-07-31/

I'm amused by the Russian reaction. "Ukraine decided to spoil Navy Day for us," as if this was undeserved. Now Putin is going to St Petersburg to celebrate the occasion after the Ukrainians forced its cancellation in Russian occupied Crimea. It's too bad they didn't kill an admiral.

 

[Oystein]

A good indication that Russia are desperate and know that they can't win is the use of their missiles on random civilian targets in cities away from the fighting.

If they could identify useful military targets along the front or in rear support areas they wouldn't be wasting precision munitions on cities.

Here is a short clip on PBS. They report on a strike with several missiles on a toy factory.
Sounds bad, eh?
But the UA military actually DID use that factory to house and store some troops and equipment - and they said that the missiles hit with super precision . like 50-cm-precision.
As a result, something like 40 Ukrainian soldiers died.
They said they suspect that a cleaning lady gave a hint to the Russians.

This was not a random strike on a random civilian target. This was a precision strike on a military target housed in a previously civilian building.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTXeFWDG4FA

I think it is stupid and dangerous in the extreme to assume the Russians are weak, bumbling idiots at everything they do. Underestimating the enemy is a sure recipe for losing a war.

The story told by a small handful of posters here of Russia blindly swinging punches like a drunkard and committing crimes all the time, and Ukraine striking precisely with clean hands and winning winning winning is a silly fantasy. I wish you experts would drop that silliness.

 

[Klimax]

Here is a short clip on PBS. They report on a strike with several missiles on a toy factory.
Sounds bad, eh?
But the UA military actually DID use that factory to house and store some troops and equipment - and they said that the missiles hit with super precision . like 50-cm-precision.
As a result, something like 40 Ukrainian soldiers died.
They said they suspect that a cleaning lady gave a hint to the Russians.

This was not a random strike on a random civilian target. This was a precision strike on a military target housed in a previously civilian building.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTXeFWDG4FA

I think it is stupid and dangerous in the extreme to assume the Russians are weak, bumbling idiots at everything they do. Underestimating the enemy is a sure recipe for losing a war.

The story told by a small handful of posters here of Russia blindly swinging punches like a drunkard and committing crimes all the time, and Ukraine striking precisely with clean hands and winning winning winning is a silly fantasy. I wish you experts would drop that silliness.

That's one out of how many imprecise or civilian strikes? Many times they publish video of allegedly precise strike, but you can't tell what the they are even trying to hit.

 

[a_unique_person]

Here is a short clip on PBS. They report on a strike with several missiles on a toy factory.
Sounds bad, eh?
But the UA military actually DID use that factory to house and store some troops and equipment - and they said that the missiles hit with super precision . like 50-cm-precision.
As a result, something like 40 Ukrainian soldiers died.
They said they suspect that a cleaning lady gave a hint to the Russians.

This was not a random strike on a random civilian target. This was a precision strike on a military target housed in a previously civilian building.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTXeFWDG4FA

I think it is stupid and dangerous in the extreme to assume the Russians are weak, bumbling idiots at everything they do. Underestimating the enemy is a sure recipe for losing a war.

The story told by a small handful of posters here of Russia blindly swinging punches like a drunkard and committing crimes all the time, and Ukraine striking precisely with clean hands and winning winning winning is a silly fantasy. I wish you experts would drop that silliness.

One of the problems is that there is a significant number of people living in Ukraine whose loyalties lie with Russia.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

That's one out of how many imprecise or civilian strikes? Many times they publish video of allegedly precise strike, but you can't tell what the they are even trying to hit.

Exactly. We can't tell. If the Ukrainians don't say what the likely target was (and why would they?) then all we can do is infer that the Russians aren't wasting their precious stock firing blindly into cities. Some may miss. Some may be intercepted and fall just anywhere. But a proportion will be hits on legitimate targets, quite likely given away by intelligence provided by civilians. It doesn't take many pro-Russian people to cause a lot of harm.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Here is a short clip on PBS. They report on a strike with several missiles on a toy factory.
Sounds bad, eh?
But the UA military actually DID use that factory to house and store some troops and equipment - and they said that the missiles hit with super precision . like 50-cm-precision.
As a result, something like 40 Ukrainian soldiers died.
They said they suspect that a cleaning lady gave a hint to the Russians.

This was not a random strike on a random civilian target. This was a precision strike on a military target housed in a previously civilian building.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTXeFWDG4FA

I think it is stupid and dangerous in the extreme to assume the Russians are weak, bumbling idiots at everything they do. Underestimating the enemy is a sure recipe for losing a war.

The story told by a small handful of posters here of Russia blindly swinging punches like a drunkard and committing crimes all the time, and Ukraine striking precisely with clean hands and winning winning winning is a silly fantasy. I wish you experts would drop that silliness.

and yet they are conducting the war as though they have no real strategy or even tactics.

 

[Oystein]

and yet they are conducting the war as though they have no real strategy or even tactics.

Says you.
I see less and less reason to take your assessment as worth anything

 

[Andy_Ross]

Says you.
I see less and less reason to take your assessment as worth anything

So what is their strategy?
What tactics are they using?

here has my assessment been wrong so far?

 

[BobTheCoward]

What is up with reports that Ukraine is placing mines in cities?

 

[Andy_Ross]

What is up with reports that Ukraine is placing mines in cities?

Which cities?

 

[jimbob]

What is up with reports that Ukraine is placing mines in cities?

The mortar strikes with Soviet butterfly mines in Donbas? Just when Russia has been doing some really poor false flag attacks?

I see no reason why Ukraine would waste resources doing that, but can see a reason why Russia or its proxies might.

 

[BobTheCoward]

The mortar strikes with Soviet butterfly mines in Donbas? Just when Russia has been doing some really poor false flag attacks?

I see no reason why Ukraine would waste resources doing that, but can see a reason why Russia or its proxies might.

Is Ukraine denying it?

 

[Andy_Ross]

A good thread on the Russian massacre of POWs at Olenivka

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432

 

[a_unique_person]

Is Ukraine denying it?

Have you tried to find out?

 

[a_unique_person]

and yet they are conducting the war as though they have no real strategy or even tactics.

They have a strategy. Seize the South to connect Crimea so there is a direct land connection.

 

[SpitfireIX]

and yet the Russian equivalent is conspicuous by it's absence.

Scott Ritter said "Yes, you may kill more Russians. But that’s it. They will keep all the territory they have captured,”

He's already wrong on that.

To add to what Doubt wrote, any source that uncritically quotes Ritter about the Ukraine war has at least two strikes against it to begin with.

Here's a great series of videos exposing Ritter, using his own words, as the pro-Putin shill he is. I've given timestamps for a few lowlights.



04:00 Kyiv attack was a brilliant feint.

09:26 The Ukrainian National Police carried out the Bucha massacre.




16:00 Zelenskyy owns a $35 million house in Miami.



13:48 Ukraine is losing 600 to 800 dead per day.

17:00 Ukraine is taking 20 casualties for every Russian casualty.

17:45 Because it's a "special military operation" and not a war, Ukraine is not legally allowed to strike back at Russia.

18:15 The "special military operation" was "designed to punish Ukraine for its criminal activities in the Donbas for the past eight years."




13:50 "What is Ukraine known for, other than corruption and Nazis?"

19:30 ". . . sending 40 billion dollars to a Nazi regime without any accounting."

30:00 Diatribe against Finland for allegedly violating spirit and letter of treaties pledging neutrality, while ignoring numerous Russian treaty violations.

Also, here's a Newsweek article that tells you all you need to know about Ritter's credibility.

Last year, Ritter wrote an article for Russian state media about his regrets at the demise of the former Soviet Union.

Ritter has also long been suspected of being recruited by the Soviets "who honey potted him, with a woman he would eventually marry", U.S. former intelligence officer and Newsweek editor-at-large Naveed Jamali tweeted on Thursday.

Jamali said Ritter met his wife in 1988 while in the Soviet Union doing weapons inspection. His wife Marina Ritter was part of a group of "young girls" introduced to American inspectors. The New York Times reported that the FBI continously questioned Marina, because the agency believed she was a former KGB agent. Ritter described the investigation into his wife as "harassment".

That same Times report mentions that Ritter was found on a Yahoo chatroom by a Pennsylvania police officer hunting down sexual predators online. The officer was posing as a 15-year-old girl, who Ritter allegedly said that he liked her "very much" but didn't want to get in trouble. Ritter shared more explicit messages with the girl and masturbated in the online chat. After the officer said that is was the "15-year-old girl," Ritter turned himself in, guilty on six charges, including unlawful contact with a minor.​