The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Andy_Ross]

We recently had a media claim posted upthread that Russia has committed 85% of it's military to this invasion where MSM ( CNN ) claimed that it was 85% of it's army, Both cited and unnamed white house official. I'm skeptical of that claim given the apparent size of the Russian military. I don't doubt morale in the Russian military is at a low, much like American conscripts in Vietnam. It's got to suck being in harm's way miles from home and I wouldn't doubt any stories coming out about Russian military deserting and making a run for the EU

What you have to remember is the Russians have a lot of stuff on the books that is junk and unusable. Only a portion of it is ever going to be fit for service. They probably have sent in about 85% of their usable stuff.

 

[Stout]

Yes, he's had his ass kicked. It's just a question of how long it is until he realises it.
When the collapse comes I predict it will be swift. It won't be a long drawn out fighting retreat. Like the forces that ran away from Kyiv and the north of the country it will be a mad scramble by the surviving troops. We will see a lot of artillery and armour abandoned in the rush.

Given the world food situation that swift collapse needs to come soon and hopefully Putin's last FU isn't to take out all of Ukraine's port and civil infrastructure as he retreats with his tail between his legs. These predictions of the war lasting months longer don't bode well for that swift collapse though.

Port infrastructure in Mykolaiv might have been hit. I can't find anything else saying that specifically and I have no idea who these guys are. (News 360 that is )

 

[Andy_Ross]

They always have a choice. Malingering, desertion, and mutiny are tales as old as time.

It's not like soldiers are just gonna run around saying, "I would prefer not to" until the Commissars start putting them up against a wall. But as morale deteriorates, so too will the army's overall performance.

They will probably stand as long as they aren't expected to make any huge advances against tough opposition or they don't Come under heavy attack from a major offensive. That's why I think when the collapse comes it will be quite sudden.

Yes I know it's in the past but a good example is the Italian army in North Africa. They advanced in to Egypt in 1940 and dug in to strong positions.
Then came Operation Compass, a British counter-attack that was supposed to be a five-day raid against Italian camps and supplies along the front. When the Italian camps were overrun the 10th Army collapsed and was pushed further and further back into Italian Libya until it was cornered at Beda Fomm and surrendered en masse.
It made the advances by the Germans in to France and the 'dash for the coast' look like a short walk.

 

[theprestige]

More modern examples might be the collapse of the North Vietnamese Army after the Tet Offensive, or the Highway of Death that capped off Desert Storm.

 

[jimbob]

They also have a vast territory and long borders to defend. They have to keep a substantial deterrent mass in the east, facing China. And they have to keep a substantial mass in reserve against contingencies. And it seems very likely that a lot of their operational mass exists only on paper, or in a very degraded form in reality.

The size of the force they can field against Ukraine may not actually be much larger than the size of the force Ukraine itself can field against them. Especially since Ukraine has NATO, not China, at its back, and can probably afford to risk leaving that border largely undefended for a (little) while.

Agree entirely. I was explaining why we haven't seen the army with the strategic initiative (they chose where to attack) has not suddenly turned into something that would be unable to defeat the Pontifical Swiss Guard.

There's a *lot* of inertia when talking about something the size of the Russian armed forces.

 

[plague311]

I won't lie, sometimes it's hard to tell if we're talking about WWII or the Ukraine war. I feel like this thread, at this point, is mostly just a WWII history lesson.

 

[theprestige]

I wont lie, sometimes it's hard to tell if we're talking about WWII or the Ukraine war. I feel like this thread, at this point, is mostly just a WWII history lesson.

The pretext for the war has clear parallels to Hitler's annexation strategy in the run-up to WWII.

 

[jimbob]

I wont lie, sometimes it's hard to tell if we're talking about WWII or the Ukraine war. I feel like this thread, at this point, is mostly just a WWII history lesson.

The whole thing about history not repeating itself but it often rhymes is very true.

There are similar situations with human nature being similar.


I was surprised at the lessons that Russia hadn't learned. The arial deep assault, I might give a pass to looking back on it, because with a bit better subversion it might have captured Zelensky and allowed the installation of a puppet regime, whereupon we would have been in a guerilla war.

But some of the others?

ETA, see also theprestige's observation on the false flag pretext, which could also have been from the Winter War.

 

[ponderingturtle]

What you have to remember is the Russians have a lot of stuff on the books that is junk and unusable. Only a portion of it is ever going to be fit for service. They probably have sent in about 85% of their usable stuff.

And a lot of their manpower is either conscripts or fictitious. Hell there are documented examples of commanders renting out military personnel for kickbacks.

 

[eerok]

And a lot of their manpower is either conscripts or fictitious. Hell there are documented examples of commanders renting out military personnel for kickbacks.

The only ground gained by Russia lately was by the Wagner group -- mercenaries. I don't think they have many regular troops left who are worth much.

 

[jimbob]

On the Russian economy.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

It's not as rosy as the regime makes out

 

[Michel H]

You are saying Russia should be rewarded for it's ethnic cleansing campaign. This will just result in more invasions and more genocide. But good to know you don't see genocide as a problem...

As far as I know, there was no ethnic cleansing campaign by Russia in occupied Ukraine, just an "friendly" invitation to become Russian citizens.

But many people left because of the war, the terrible security situation, and because they were invited to do so by the Ukrainian authorities.

I should remind you he is also a holocaust denier.

No, this is not true.

Ok, please take out a blank paper with the pre-2014 borders of Ukraine drawn on it, and then mark with a red pencil the "territories which don't want to be Ukrainian", taking into account "the sociological reality of said territories".

Or rather, explain in some actionable detail how exactly you would go about identifying those territories so you can put them on a map.

You may want to consider how "the sociological reality" has been changing - since 1990, since 2000, since 2014, since 24 Feb 2022 - and how those changes should affect the territories you choose to mark red.

You may want to think about what units of territory to poll - oblasts? Cities? Individual villages? Individual residential plots?
You may want to think about how and when to poll territories.

You may want to take into account that the "very bloody battles" you wish to avoid have already been forced upon Ukraine by Russia - and whether you propose that, as a general rule, the sociological results of such bloody ought to be heeded - that indeed, according to you, bloody battle is a legitimate and advisable way to change sociological realities and borders. Or why else would you place the burden on Ukraine, not Russia?

Go!

If you cannot, without further ado, describe in your very next post that process and consequently suggest a definitive map, then I propose you do have problems with the concept, and merely feign not to see any.

indeed, according to you, bloody battle is a legitimate and advisable way to change sociological realities and borders.

No, this is certainly not what I believe, we are no longer in the Middle Ages.

I don't think Russia should be rewarded because of its illegal (and massive) invasion, except perhaps to correct some injustices of which citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Russia may have been victims. Russia has already paid a heavy price, it is estimated that about 15,000 of its soldiers have already died, many more have been injured.

Referendums have already taken place:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Post-referendum_polls .
They may not need to be repeated.

I believe Ukraine and the West made a big mistake in 2014 when they imposed heavy sanctions on Russia after the annexation of Crimea, following a referendum which seemed mostly honest. It's not a crime to show respect for local democracy. This failed policy may explain why this current invasion is taking place.

 

[dudalb]

Russia announced it's pulling out of the ISS and will build their own Space Station.
It will probably go as well as their war in the Ukraine.

 

[dudalb]

As far as I know, there was no ethnic cleansing campaign by Russia in occupied Ukraine, just an "friendly" invitation to become Russian citizens.

But many people left because of the war, the terrible security situation, and because they were invited to do so by the Ukrainian authorities.

No, this is not true.


No, this is certainly not what I believe, we are no longer in the Middle Ages.

I don't think Russia should be rewarded because of its illegal (and massive) invasion, except perhaps to correct some injustices of which citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Russia may have been victims. Russia has already paid a heavy price, it is estimated that about 15,000 of its soldiers have already died, many more have been injured.

Referendums have already taken place:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Post-referendum_polls .
They may not need to be repeated.

I believe Ukraine and the West made a big mistake in 2014 when they imposed heavy sanctions on Russia after the annexation of Crimea, following a referendum which seemed mostly honest. It's not a crime to show respect for local democracy. This failed policy may explain why this current invasion is taking place.

Excuse me while I vomit.

 

[SpitfireIX]

As far as I know, there was no ethnic cleansing campaign by Russia in occupied Ukraine, just an "friendly" invitation to become Russian citizens.

But many people left because of the war, the terrible security situation, and because they were invited to do so by the Ukrainian authorities.

No, this is not true.


No, this is certainly not what I believe, we are no longer in the Middle Ages.

I don't think Russia should be rewarded because of its illegal (and massive) invasion, except perhaps to correct some injustices of which citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and Russia may have been victims. Russia has already paid a heavy price, it is estimated that about 15,000 of its soldiers have already died, many more have been injured.

Referendums have already taken place:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Post-referendum_polls .
They may not need to be repeated.

I believe Ukraine and the West made a big mistake in 2014 when they imposed heavy sanctions on Russia after the annexation of Crimea, following a referendum which seemed mostly honest. It's not a crime to show respect for local democracy. This failed policy may explain why this current invasion is taking place.

Excuse me while I vomit.

You didn't even bold the worst part.

 

[Mike!]

On the Russian economy.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

It's not as rosy as the regime makes out

Russia announced it's pulling out of the ISS and will build their own Space Station.
It will probably go as well as their war in the Ukraine.

From the above article on the Russian economy...

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

Just what are they going to build their own space station from, wax, tin foil and bailing wire?

 

[Michel H]

From the above article on the Russian economy...


Just what are they going to build their own space station from, wax, tin foil and bailing wire?

I may perhaps remind you of Sputnik 1, the first artificial Earth satellite, which was certainly not imported from the US.

This was done with Ukraine in 1957, but now China is helping Russia a little.

 

[Oystein]

...
Referendums have already taken place:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Post-referendum_polls .
They may not need to be repeated.
...

Did you read those articles?
Did you not find HUGE problems reported in them?!?

Please describe the territory wherein those polls were held; describe who held those polls. Describe the circumstances under which those polls were held.
Where those fair, free, democratic polls?

 

[theprestige]

More to the point, why would they bother? Unless they're building an orbital shipyard, space stations are a dead end and a waste of resources.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

What you have to remember is the Russians have a lot of stuff on the books that is junk and unusable. Only a portion of it is ever going to be fit for service. They probably have sent in about 85% of their usable stuff.

C2 and logistics are also a limitation. The Russians seem to have lost a disproportionate amount of utility vehicles and senior officers, and flexible task organization was never a thing their armed forces were set up to do well. Even if they have a lot more firepower, they can't deploy, deliver, nor support much more of it than they already are.