The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Stout]

The weather is just one thing they got wrong. It's a long list.

No one knows how long this war will last. At this point Russia seems unable to mount a meaningful assault -- their mercenary groups are making some trivial gains here and there at great cost around Donbas, and they're still throwing missiles. Will they fold up once Ukraine pushes back in force? Hard to say, but maybe.

I guess I'm not understanding this whole weather thing. I mean, they're Russians, they invented winter. I guess we'll just have to wait until this million man army gets it's act together before we really see what Ukraine can do to push the orcs back int Ras Putin's lap.

 

[The Don]

I guess I'm not understanding this whole weather thing. I mean, they're Russians, they invented winter. I guess we'll just have to wait until this million man army gets it's act together before we really see what Ukraine can do to push the orcs back int Ras Putin's lap.

They may have invented it but like the English with football (soccer) they're not very good at it any more it seems.

If logistics were bad in ideal summer conditions then I don't see them improving

 

[Andy_Ross]

Oh yea, I remember that. It may have stopped the Russians from taking Kyiv that is, if they actually intoned to take it at opposed to making it unlivable and getting the refugee stream flowing from the city. Point is, the invasion kept coming and here we are five months later and there's no end in sight.

Hoping for weather and corruption to be the Russians undoing this time looks more like wishful thinking especially since there's predictions that this conflict is going to continue for quite some time.

Every time I bring up the liveua.com map it's filled with red Russian attacks. Odessa was just hit(again) 4 hours ago. Russia says it's planning on "liberating" the Odesa region...They still keep coming and plan to keep coming weather be dammed.

From the CBC

These endless articles about Russia running out of everything are starting to get old. Why it was only a couple of weeks ago when we were reading about prolapsed artillery barrels yet the shelling goes on.

and on and on.

The cold and freezing conditions was one of the reasons the Russians failed. Why do you think they will do any better in the next winter with their best equipment and troops all gone?

Do you remember when the summer came in and the doom sayers said it would mean Russia could get off the roads, spread in to the countryside and really get their armour moving properly?

Where do they "still keep coming"? Do you mean the crawl they are being allowed to do on a tiny part of the front at the moment?

They are running out of everything, the artillery is worn out and the shelling has decreased.

Russia has shot it's load.

 

[lobosrul5]

I guess I'm not understanding this whole weather thing. I mean, they're Russians, they invented winter. I guess we'll just have to wait until this million man army gets it's act together before we really see what Ukraine can do to push the orcs back int Ras Putin's lap.

Yeah, see, ill-equipped, ill-led, and ill-prepared Russian soldiers freeze to death just as much as French and German soldiers. If the Ukrainian army can maneuver in winter conditions better than Russia's, then a winter counter-offensive that isolates and annihilates Russian BTG's may be a strategy they consider. Whether they have that capability is not something I have any knowledge of.

 

[Oystein]

F-16 is not something that is going to reverse the tide of conflict within the next month. Nobody has said that. You're looking to a longer term future as Ukraine starts to rebuild its airforce. If the conflict drags into next year, then some Western aircraft might actually creep in, but I think it's being looked at more as a long term solution. ...

There is a good (read: bad) chance that the war will continue deep into 2023 and beyond.
Even if it doesn't, and if Ukraine survives, it will continue to be the neighbor of a Russia that is not to be trusted, no matter how much the Ruscists may then have depleted their capabilities, so Ukraine needs a military in the long run that can fend off any future Russian attack sooner, and throw them out quicker.

The time to start building such capabilities on the UA side is now. Questioning now whether it will be there before the end of the current war or after should not enter too heavily into that equation.

 

[Stout]

The cold and freezing conditions was one of the reasons the Russians failed. Why do you think they will do any better in the next winter with their best equipment and troops all gone?

Do you remember when the summer came in and the doom sayers said it would mean Russia could get off the roads, spread in to the countryside and really get their armour moving properly?

Where do they "still keep coming"? Do you mean the crawl they are being allowed to do on a tiny part of the front at the moment?

They are running out of everything, the artillery is worn out and the shelling has decreased.

Russia has shot it's load.

The Russians were idiots to keep to the roads in the cold and freezing and it was the upcoming mud season that was supposed to keep them on the roads. Remember the tractor towing away a tank? Not too much made of those mud season predictions when mud season eventually came. I don't think they'll do any better, just not suck as hard as the media would like us to believe.

By keep coming, I mean keep attacking. Yes they may not be gaining all that much ground which is only significant if you're betting their goals are to conquer the entire Ukraine. Right now it's Odesa that looks to be in the crosshairs and if they can succeed in disabling the port facilities there, then we'll have no choice but to declare this a "win" for Russia. That's what I mean by keep coming.

I'm going to remain skeptical that Russia has shot it's load until I see some serious retreating. Putin has had years to prepare for this and although it's tempting to want to play Benny Hill music in the background to any of his speeches we still have to deal with the fact that he hasn't gotten his ass kicked yet.

 

[jimbob]

The Russians were idiots to keep to the roads in the cold and freezing and it was the upcoming mud season that was supposed to keep them on the roads. Remember the tractor towing away a tank? Not too much made of those mud season predictions when mud season eventually came. I don't think they'll do any better, just not suck as hard as the media would like us to believe.

By keep coming, I mean keep attacking. Yes they may not be gaining all that much ground which is only significant if you're betting their goals are to conquer the entire Ukraine. Right now it's Odesa that looks to be in the crosshairs and if they can succeed in disabling the port facilities there, then we'll have no choice but to declare this a "win" for Russia. That's what I mean by keep coming.

I'm going to remain skeptical that Russia has shot it's load until I see some serious retreating. Putin has had years to prepare for this and although it's tempting to want to play Benny Hill music in the background to any of his speeches we still have to deal with the fact that he hasn't gotten his ass kicked yet.

Russia has one of the largest armies in the world. They are fighting a country that mostly was using older versions of the same equipment as them and in smaller amounts. They have a huge number of artillery systems. However they are degrading and morale will be taking a hit. As will the Russian economy and mobilisation efforts.

The Russian troops are not literally orcs, they don't want to be cannon fodder for Putin's imperial ambitions.

 

[Jimbo07]

I'm going to remain skeptical that Russia has shot it's load until I see some serious retreating. Putin has had years to prepare for this and although it's tempting to want to play Benny Hill music in the background to any of his speeches we still have to deal with the fact that he hasn't gotten his ass kicked yet.

Yep, me too. This has been something I've been contesting here.

Russian leadership doesn't view things the same way. They're not treating military effectiveness of units the same way. 15,000 dead and more wounded has not been enough. The Russian forces need to have their ass kicked in such a way that, even through the cloud of disinformation his lackies are accused of feeding him, it makes Putin sit up and take notice.

Anything short of shaking Putin by the collar and shouting that "your forces are garbage," is not Russia shooting its load. If it has to, it'll send farmers across the border with bolt action rifles.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Yep, me too. This has been something I've been contesting here.

Russian leadership doesn't view things the same way. They're not treating military effectiveness of units the same way. 15,000 dead and more wounded has not been enough. The Russian forces need to have their ass kicked in such a way that, even through the cloud of disinformation his lackies are accused of feeding him, it makes Putin sit up and take notice.

Anything short of shaking Putin by the collar and shouting that "your forces are garbage," is not Russia shooting its load. If it has to, it'll send farmers across the border with bolt action rifles.

No that is the conscripts from occupied territory who are the ones with the bolt action rifles.

 

[Lplus]

Russia has one of the largest armies in the world. They are fighting a country that mostly was using older versions of the same equipment as them and in smaller amounts. They have a huge number of artillery systems. However they are degrading and morale will be taking a hit. As will the Russian economy and mobilisation efforts.

The Russian troops are not literally orcs, they don't want to be cannon fodder for Putin's imperial ambitions.

What makes you think they have a choice?

 

[lobosrul5]

What makes you think they have a choice?

At a certain point, and faced with near certain death anyways, the Russian Army might refuse orders and turn on Putin... especially if its general grade officers being killed. That happened in 1917. I must confess, I thought that would have already probably happened by now. I had underestimated the effectiveness of Putin's propaganda and the gullibility of the Russian people to buy it.

 

[SpitfireIX]

Also, as I've mentioned, Tsar Vladimir has a much better internal security apparatus than Nicholas II did.

 

[uke2se]

I'm afraid that if Russians turn on Putin, it will be the imperialist right of the country that will do it, their reasoning being that Putin has failed to bring the nation back to greatness. There appear to be whining about military incompetence in those circles already. Such an ouster of Putin would not serve to make Russia any less belligerent.

The Russian people as a whole will not turn on Putin. I would think the concept is alien to them. The best we can hope for is local uprisings in distant regions that provide the bulk of the soldiers dying in Ukraine. The Russian heartland is basically unfazed by the war thus far.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The Russians were idiots to keep to the roads in the cold and freezing and it was the upcoming mud season that was supposed to keep them on the roads. Remember the tractor towing away a tank? Not too much made of those mud season predictions when mud season eventually came. I don't think they'll do any better, just not suck as hard as the media would like us to believe.

By keep coming, I mean keep attacking. Yes they may not be gaining all that much ground which is only significant if you're betting their goals are to conquer the entire Ukraine. Right now it's Odesa that looks to be in the crosshairs and if they can succeed in disabling the port facilities there, then we'll have no choice but to declare this a "win" for Russia. That's what I mean by keep coming.

I'm going to remain skeptical that Russia has shot it's load until I see some serious retreating. Putin has had years to prepare for this and although it's tempting to want to play Benny Hill music in the background to any of his speeches we still have to deal with the fact that he hasn't gotten his ass kicked yet.

Yes, he's had his ass kicked. It's just a question of how long it is until he realises it.
When the collapse comes I predict it will be swift. It won't be a long drawn out fighting retreat. Like the forces that ran away from Kyiv and the north of the country it will be a mad scramble by the surviving troops. We will see a lot of artillery and armour abandoned in the rush.

 

[Andy_Ross]

What makes you think they have a choice?

Well, they are still following orders at the moment but there will come a point when their desire to run away will be greater than the fear of punishment.
Russian soldiers have no more of a death wish than any other.
That's how armies collapse.

 

[Stout]

Russia has one of the largest armies in the world. They are fighting a country that mostly was using older versions of the same equipment as them and in smaller amounts. They have a huge number of artillery systems. However they are degrading and morale will be taking a hit. As will the Russian economy and mobilisation efforts.

The Russian troops are not literally orcs, they don't want to be cannon fodder for Putin's imperial ambitions.

We recently had a media claim posted upthread that Russia has committed 85% of it's military to this invasion where MSM ( CNN ) claimed that it was 85% of it's army, Both cited and unnamed white house official. I'm skeptical of that claim given the apparent size of the Russian military. I don't doubt morale in the Russian military is at a low, much like American conscripts in Vietnam. It's got to suck being in harm's way miles from home and I wouldn't doubt any stories coming out about Russian military deserting and making a run for the EU

 

[theprestige]

What makes you think they have a choice?

They always have a choice. Malingering, desertion, and mutiny are tales as old as time.

It's not like soldiers are just gonna run around saying, "I would prefer not to" until the Commissars start putting them up against a wall. But as morale deteriorates, so too will the army's overall performance.

 

[crescent]

I'm afraid that if Russians turn on Putin, it will be the imperialist right of the country that will do it, their reasoning being that Putin has failed to bring the nation back to greatness. There appear to be whining about military incompetence in those circles already. Such an ouster of Putin would not serve to make Russia any less belligerent.

The Russian people as a whole will not turn on Putin. I would think the concept is alien to them. The best we can hope for is local uprisings in distant regions that provide the bulk of the soldiers dying in Ukraine. The Russian heartland is basically unfazed by the war thus far.

That's what I think as well. In 1917 there soldiers stationed in St. Petersburg who would have eventually ended up on the front - and knew it. It included troops recently rotated off the lines, who knew they might be ordered back.

Now most of the cannon-fodder soldiers are being recruited from the rural areas. Ethnic majority Russians are not much affected by all this. The troops in the Russian-majority areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg have no reason the rise up, they're not caught up in the fighting. Whatever disaffected troops there are, they are nowhere near the centers of power, not physically nor culturally nor politically.

And it they do get rid of Putin, I think they'll replace him with someone who will get in power by promising to win the war. It took two revolutions to get Russia out of the first world war.

 

[ponderingturtle]

We recently had a media claim posted upthread that Russia has committed 85% of it's military to this invasion where MSM ( CNN ) claimed that it was 85% of it's army, Both cited and unnamed white house official. I'm skeptical of that claim given the apparent size of the Russian military. I don't doubt morale in the Russian military is at a low, much like American conscripts in Vietnam. It's got to suck being in harm's way miles from home and I wouldn't doubt any stories coming out about Russian military deserting and making a run for the EU

That number seems not unlikely as they have in theory not been deploying conscript troops at least those from Russia itself. The amount of professional units they have does seem to be being severely stressed.

 

[theprestige]

Russia has one of the largest armies in the world.

They also have a vast territory and long borders to defend. They have to keep a substantial deterrent mass in the east, facing China. And they have to keep a substantial mass in reserve against contingencies. And it seems very likely that a lot of their operational mass exists only on paper, or in a very degraded form in reality.

The size of the force they can field against Ukraine may not actually be much larger than the size of the force Ukraine itself can field against them. Especially since Ukraine has NATO, not China, at its back, and can probably afford to risk leaving that border largely undefended for a (little) while.