The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Childlike Empress]

Do you think it's true?

In my (vast) experience the Russian takes were always much more accurate than the Ukrainian ones. You can go back to the original 2013/2014 thread when I compared maps issued by the Kiev Propaganda with those by the Opolchenie Propaganda until it got boring. It always turned out the same: Kiev was making up BS that time showed to be BS.

And another thing, that can be quite frustrating: Despite the blather about "Russian Propaganda", they are really not very interested (or good). At least not in 2022 where all their main outlets are banned from the "Western" bubble and one has to dare to register on Telegram or go to the official websites to find their info. Not directed at brainwashed masses, it's a miracle they even maintain such detailed daily information in English. The bridges are burned.

So yes, I tend to believe what they write about the destroyed HIMARS (which again are far from the Wunderwaffe "Western" propagandists make believe in despair). At least I give it much more credit than the gibberish of the clown who heads the "intelligence" "service" of the most sophisticated propaganda peddlers on Earth, the "elites" of "Great Britain".

 

[SpitfireIX]

From CNN:

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

The US assesses Ukraine “has taken out more than a hundred high-value targets,” according to a senior US defense official. Most of the targets have been in the east in recent weeks as the Ukrainians have been able to improve their precision targeting with the use of US provided artillery. . . .

The Ukrainians are “attacking Russian command posts, ammunition depots, air-defense sites, radar and communications nodes, and long-range artillery positions,” the official said. This is contributing to the broader assessment that Ukraine has been able to make progress against Russian forces. However, the US also assesses that Russia still is launching “tens of thousands” of artillery rounds per day.

“They can’t keep it up forever,” the Russians “have expended a lot of smarter munitions … their capabilities are getting dumber,” the official noted, adding that Russia has not taken out a single HIMARS system yet, but it is likely they will “get lucky” and do so at some point. . . .

Russian fatalities include “thousands” of lieutenants and captains, “hundreds” of colonels, and “many” generals, the official said. “The chain of command is still struggling.”​

 

[jimbob]

We'd expect there to be more fires where there's heavy fighting. But NASA isn't looking at artillery strikes. They're just looking at heat sources around the globe. You're *inferring* that some of those heat sources are from artillery strikes.

Which makes sense. I had just (naively) assumed that someone - other than NASA - was using radar data or similar to track actual artillery fire missions.

Agree entirely. And I was linking to the raw data map because I lack the expertise to make many inferences with any certainty - my background is certainly no better than yours (might be equal if you also have no relevant experience) but it is striking how the reported fires at the start of the month were where you would expect artillery to be landing in the East and now are far fewer, whilst fires in the strategically important occupied South have increased from the start of the month.

 

[lobosrul5]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...-warplanes-to-ukraine-and-training-its-pilots

in case someone can't get by NY Times soft paywall:

https://www.republicworld.com/world...to-ukraine-know-all-about-it-articleshow.html

My plan would be to take about 200 A-10's, and 100 B-52's out of storage and train some Ukrainian pilots on them, that is after they have air supremacy, which should be forthcoming with all the missiles we've sent. Utterly and completely annihilate Russian forces in Ukraine. Also, something with good anti-shipping capability, not sure either of those planes do.

And yeah he is basically a bond villain in charge of a large country with nukes.

What is the obsession with A-10s?

.... /me whistles nonchalantly

 

[Mike!]

In my (vast) experience the Russian takes were always much more accurate than the Ukrainian ones. You can go back to the original 2013/2014 thread when I compared maps issued by the Kiev Propaganda with those by the Opolchenie Propaganda until it got boring. It always turned out the same: Kiev was making up BS that time showed to be BS.

And another thing, that can be quite frustrating: Despite the blather about "Russian Propaganda", they are really not very interested (or good). At least not in 2022 where all their main outlets are banned from the "Western" bubble and one has to dare to register on Telegram or go to the official websites to find their info. Not directed at brainwashed masses, it's a miracle they even maintain such detailed daily information in English. The bridges are burned.

So yes, I tend to believe what they write about the destroyed HIMARS (which again are far from the Wunderwaffe "Western" propagandists make believe in despair). At least I give it much more credit than the gibberish of the clown who heads the "intelligence" "service" of the most sophisticated propaganda peddlers on Earth, the "elites" of "Great Britain".

From CNN:

US assesses Ukraine has taken out more than a hundred "high value" Russian targets

The US assesses Ukraine “has taken out more than a hundred high-value targets,” according to a senior US defense official. Most of the targets have been in the east in recent weeks as the Ukrainians have been able to improve their precision targeting with the use of US provided artillery. . . .

The Ukrainians are “attacking Russian command posts, ammunition depots, air-defense sites, radar and communications nodes, and long-range artillery positions,” the official said. This is contributing to the broader assessment that Ukraine has been able to make progress against Russian forces. However, the US also assesses that Russia still is launching “tens of thousands” of artillery rounds per day.

“They can’t keep it up forever,” the Russians “have expended a lot of smarter munitions … their capabilities are getting dumber,” the official noted, adding that Russia has not taken out a single HIMARS system yet, but it is likely they will “get lucky” and do so at some point. . . .

Russian fatalities include “thousands” of lieutenants and captains, “hundreds” of colonels, and “many” generals, the official said. “The chain of command is still struggling.”​

Oh goodness, what a quandary, whom am I to believe?

 

[theprestige]

Oh goodness, what a quandary, whom am I to believe?

I like the second source because it relates to one of my hypotheses about the war:

NATO* must have accurate reconnaissance of all the Russian high-value targets in eastern Ukraine. If they were to engage Russia directly, they'd end the invasion in under a week, just by hitting those targets. Instead, they have to let Ukraine do the actual shooting. So it comes down to sharing their reconnaissance data with Ukraine, and then providing Ukraine with the long-range high-accuracy weapons to hit the high-value targets NATO* already knows about.

And from my hypothesis, some predictions: As more such weapons make it to the front, we should expect to see more and more high-value targets being hit behind Russian lines. At some point, we should reach a critical mass of weakened Russian forces and strengthened Ukrainian forces, followed by an absolute steamroll counterattack by the Ukrainians. Once we reach that inflection point, I predict the Russians will call for a cease-fire within a week of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This prediction hinges on the Ukrainians holding enough of their ground forces in reserve to actually launch a massive counter-attack.

I suspect that a lot of what The Don sees as Russia "winning" by grinding slowly forward, is actually Ukraine letting them wear themselves down, and not putting their main strength into the meatgrinder until they're ready to go all the way.

ETA: I also suspect that what we're seeing in the east is a slow-motion version of what we saw around Kiev: An aggressive but unsustainable Russian advance, bogged down by unexpectedly strong and effective Ukrainian resistance and their own logistical shortcomings, finally ending in a complete rout.

 

[theprestige]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...-warplanes-to-ukraine-and-training-its-pilots

in case someone can't get by NY Times soft paywall:

https://www.republicworld.com/world...to-ukraine-know-all-about-it-articleshow.html





.... /me whistles nonchalantly

"Some people are in love with the A-10, let's try to work a reference into our nothingburger report."

 

[Andy_Ross]

Dumb missiles are cheaper than smart, although I confess: damfino why anybody would fire unguided ordnance in this day and age, and hang the cost.

But a dim missile that homes on a signal from a smarter one (or on a laser beam or, reverting to WW2 methods, a flare) will cost less than a missile carrying specialized and hardened guidance electronics.

An anecdote: A generation ago, when air forces still dropped dumb bombs a lot of the time, I had my little idea for dim bombs, ordnance wearing guidance kits but only enough electronics to home on a radio beam, laser, or flare, or all three, in the tail of a smart bomb dropped a second or two before. This would result in a smartly accurate salvo, concentrating detonations on and close to a target. A friend of mine thought it a good enough idea to run past a retired USAF colonel he corresponded with. Colonel liked it too, but he asked, why bother with radio and IR and laser tethering? Try plain nylon rope, maybe 50 meters between each bomb? Nobody will ever jam that, nor lead it astray with flares or chaff.

I had to admire the simplicity of the colonel's thinking. He grasped the concept and at once improved on it in about the cheapest way you could.

Thus my slogan is, Rope for Ukraine!

'Dumb missiles' fired from HIMARS and MLRS are pretty precise without any guidance.
Same with NATO artillery.

Why would your 'dim' missile with some kind of active homing device be any cheaper than one with a GPS in it?
Also the 'smart' missile would have to be more complex as it would have to incorporate something for your the 'dim' missile to track and follow.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

And from my hypothesis, some predictions: As more such weapons make it to the front, we should expect to see more and more high-value targets being hit behind Russian lines. At some point, we should reach a critical mass of weakened Russian forces and strengthened Ukrainian forces, followed by an absolute steamroll counterattack by the Ukrainians. Once we reach that inflection point, I predict the Russians will call for a cease-fire within a week of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This prediction hinges on the Ukrainians holding enough of their ground forces in reserve to actually launch a massive counter-attack.
I suspect that a lot of what The Don sees as Russia "winning" by grinding slowly forward, is actually Ukraine letting them wear themselves down, and not putting their main strength into the meatgrinder until they're ready to go all the way.

There is another factor that this hinges on. That these forces in their counterattack do not face similar problems as the Russians in their attacks. I.e. being worn out in a meat grinder.

 

[ZiprHead]

"Some people are in love with the A-10, let's try to work a reference into our nothingburger report."

They're pretty cool planes. The National Guard uses our local airport for short take-off and landing exercises so I get to see them quite often.

It's my understanding that the US is phasing them out so letting Ukraine have some of them shouldn't be a big deal.

 

[theprestige]

There is another factor that this hinges on. That these forces in their counterattack do not face similar problems as the Russians in their attacks. I.e. being worn out in a meat grinder.

I think Ukraine is probably trying to get the Russians worn down to the point where they can't set up and sustain an effective meatgrinder.

 

[theprestige]

They're pretty cool planes. The National Guard uses our local airport for short take-off and landing exercises so I get to see them quite often.

It's my understanding that the US is phasing them out so letting Ukraine have some of them shouldn't be a big deal.

They're obsolete, and at the end of their upgrade path.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

I think Ukraine is probably trying to get the Russians worn down to the point where they can't set up and sustain an effective meatgrinder.

The AFU have managed to set up one while being vastly outgunned. To what extent should the Russians in turn become outgunned, so that the Ukrainian counteroffensive not share the same fate?

(OTOH, we have seen the RuAF make good progress, so why shouldn't the AFU?)

 

[jimbob]

They're pretty cool planes. The National Guard uses our local airport for short take-off and landing exercises so I get to see them quite often.

It's my understanding that the US is phasing them out so letting Ukraine have some of them shouldn't be a big deal.

There's a reason why the USAF is phasing them out though. They are undoubtedly impressive weapons with a significant morale effect, but they'd not be mush more survivable than the Soviet equivalent, the Su-25.

 

[theprestige]

There's a reason why the USAF is phasing them out though. They are undoubtedly impressive weapons with a significant morale effect, but they'd not be mush more survivable than the Soviet equivalent, the Su-25.

Oh, I doubt their impressiveness and the significance of their morale effect.

 

[Craig4]

In my (vast) experience of parroting pro-Russian and pro-genocide dishonesty....

FTFY.

Run along and find proof of a destroyed HIMARS that's not from a Russian source. A Russian source is always assumed to be dishonest. Liars are going to lie.

 

[Andy_Ross]

There is another factor that this hinges on. That these forces in their counterattack do not face similar problems as the Russians in their attacks. I.e. being worn out in a meat grinder.

Why do you think they would let themselves get in to fighting like that?
Remember they are NATO trained and will not fight that kind of war. There is a reason they are not going on to the offensive yet.

 

[theprestige]

I'm trying to understand CE's narrative about HIMARS. One of the claims floating around is that the weapons themselves are being crewed and commanded by NATO troops and officers, not by Ukrainians.

So the premise is that these NATO soldiers, backed by NATO reconnaissance, are somehow positioning their weapons so close to the front that the Russians can not only hit them, but can even get close enough to confirm the kill.

But if that's the case, why are the Russians making such slow progress? If they're able to just steamroll the Ukrainians between them and such things as NATO-operated HIMARS, why aren't they doing more steamrolling across the board? Where are the territorial gains, the significant advances, that must be part and parcel of overrunning the Ukrainian rear areas?

 

[Andy_Ross]

They're pretty cool planes. The National Guard uses our local airport for short take-off and landing exercises so I get to see them quite often.

It's my understanding that the US is phasing them out so letting Ukraine have some of them shouldn't be a big deal.

They wouldn't want them for the same reason the US doesn't want them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The AFU have managed to set up one while being vastly outgunned. To what extent should the Russians in turn become outgunned, so that the Ukrainian counteroffensive not share the same fate?

(OTOH, we have seen the RuAF make good progress, so why shouldn't the AFU?)

The Ukraine have used better tactics and training and better weapons. When the offensive starts the Russians will be completely outgunned. Ukraine will be using better tactics, training and equipment.